基于空间分布的铅污染健康风险评价与区划方法探讨及实例研究

发布时间：2018-10-22 09:53

【摘要】：背景：我国是世界上最大的铅生产和消费国,但我国铅锌行业发展具有明显的粗放型特征,其“小、散、差”的特点会导致“涉铅企业”在采选、冶炼、加工和回收再利用等各环节将污染物铅释放到环境或生态系统中,经过留存、积累和迁移,并通过呼吸道、消化道或手-口等途径暴露于人体,对人体造成损害,甚至对婴幼儿发育和智力造成不可逆损害。铅污染导致的健康损害事件,已在一些地区引发了群体性事件,威胁社会稳定与和谐。然而,虽然铅污染来源广、危害大,但其并非随时随地成害,而是具有明显的区域聚集效应,因此在行政资源有限的情况下,对其防治,首先需要明确铅污染健康风险空间分布情况,以便对铅污染高风险区域进行优先管理。针对此,尽管既往研究已做了相关探索,但从服务于风险管理而言,尚存在一定的不足。目的：基于铅污染导致健康损害的形成过程,探讨基于空间分布铅污染健康风险评价和区划方法,开展实例研究,以期为基层铅污染风险管理提供方法指导和科学依据。方法：在回顾既往环境污染健康风险评价技术与方法、铅污染健康风险的形成过程、特征的基础上,结合专家意见确定和构建铅污染健康风险区划的步骤,通过专家咨询法构建铅污染健康风险综合评价初始指标体系,使用层次分析法计算各指标的权重系数,形成了铅污染健康风险综合评价指标体系,并据此指标体系对铅污染典型案例区——者海,开展以行政村为单位的小尺度铅污染健康风险评价,最后根据“行政村百分位数法”实现了28个行政村的风险区划。结果：(1)两轮专家咨询的结果具有较好的可靠性,有效回收率均高于90%,权威系数分别为0.81和0.84,协调性系数均介于0.816～0.917间。(2)铅污染健康风险评价体系由源的危险性、人群易损性和风险可达性三个准则层,11项指标组成,三个准则层的贡献率分别为0.5343、0.1653和0.3004。(3)按行政区25%原则,依据健康风险的相对大小,将阿依卡、蚂色卡、新村、三家村、者海村、犀牛村和钢铁村7个行政村划为高风险区。结论：铅污染健康风险的形成,以风险源的危险性为主导,并受区域人群易损性和风险可达性的综合影响。这一铅污染健康风险评价与区划方法是科学、易行的,不仅可用于区域健康风险的现状评价还可用于风险预测。
[Abstract]:Background: China is the world's largest lead production and consumption country, but the development of lead and zinc industry in China has obvious extensive characteristics, its "small, scattered, poor" characteristics will lead to "lead-related enterprises" in the extraction, smelting, Lead is released into the environment or ecosystem through processing and recycling, and is exposed to the human body through respiratory tract, digestive tract or hand mouth, which is harmful to human body. It even causes irreversible damage to infant development and intelligence. The health damage caused by lead pollution has caused mass events in some areas, threatening social stability and harmony. However, although lead pollution has a wide range of sources and great harm, it does not cause harm at any time or anywhere, but has a distinct regional aggregation effect, so that it can be prevented and controlled in the case of limited administrative resources. First of all, the spatial distribution of lead pollution health risk should be clarified in order to give priority to lead pollution risk areas. In view of this, although previous studies have made relevant exploration, but from the point of view of serving risk management, there are still some shortcomings. Objective: based on the formation process of health damage caused by lead pollution, the method of health risk assessment and regionalization based on spatial distribution of lead pollution was discussed, and a case study was carried out in order to provide method guidance and scientific basis for the risk management of lead pollution at basic level. Methods: on the basis of reviewing the previous assessment techniques and methods of environmental pollution health risk, the forming process and characteristics of lead pollution health risk, and combining with the expert opinion, the steps of determining and constructing the health risk regionalization of lead pollution were discussed. The initial index system of comprehensive evaluation of lead pollution health risk was constructed by expert consultation method. The weight coefficient of each index was calculated by AHP, and the comprehensive evaluation index system of lead pollution health risk was formed. On the basis of this index system, the health risk assessment of lead pollution in small scale is carried out on the basis of the typical case area of lead pollution, that is, Zhihai. Finally, the risk regionalization of 28 administrative villages is realized according to the "percentile method of administrative villages". Results: (1) the results of the two rounds of expert consultation were reliable, the effective recovery rate was higher than 90, the authoritative coefficients were 0.81 and 0.84, and the coordination coefficients were between 0.816 and 0.917. (2) the risk of the health risk assessment system of lead pollution was from the source. The three criterion layers of vulnerability and risk accessibility of the population were composed of 11 indexes. The contribution rates of the three criteria layers were 0.5343U 0.1653 and 0.30044.3.According to the principle of 25% of the administrative region, according to the relative size of health risk, Ayika, Maserka, Xincun, Sanjia Village, The sea village, rhinoceros village and iron village 7 administrative villages designated as high risk areas. Conclusion: the formation of health risk of lead pollution is dominated by the risk source and affected by the vulnerability and risk accessibility of regional population. The method of health risk assessment and regionalization of lead pollution is scientific and feasible. It can be used not only to evaluate the current situation of regional health risk, but also to predict the risk.
【学位授予单位】：北京中医药大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：X820.4;R12

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