广东省手足口病气象危险因素阈值效应的研究
发布时间：2018-11-10 07:49
【摘要】：目的研究气象因素影响广东省手足口病流行的阈值效应,为该省手足口病预警和防控提供科学依据。方法利用2009-2012年广东省手足口病监测数据和同期的气象数据,建立分类回归树模型,探明气象因素影响手足口病发病的阈值效应,并预测2013年手足口病的高风险时段。结果回归树模型结果显示当平均气温≥193.7(0.1℃)并且平均相对湿度≥79.21(1%)时,发病的相对危险度达到最大,RR=1.92。分类树模型结果显示当平均气温≥197.5(0.1℃),并且平均相对湿度≥77.39(1%)时,手足口病的暴发风险最大(P=0.786)。最后预测结果显示4-9月是高风险时段。结论基于分类回归树模型的阈值效应研究在手足口病危险因素筛选和发病风险的预警等方面具有一定的实用价值。
[Abstract]:Objective to study the threshold effect of meteorological factors on the prevalence of HFMD in Guangdong Province, and to provide scientific basis for early warning and prevention and control of HFMD in Guangdong Province. Methods based on the HFMD surveillance data and meteorological data from 2009 to 2012 in Guangdong Province, a classified regression tree model was established to find out the threshold effect of meteorological factors on HFMD, and to predict the high risk period of HFMD in 2013. Results the results of regression tree model showed that when the mean temperature 鈮，
本文编号：2321846
[Abstract]:Objective to study the threshold effect of meteorological factors on the prevalence of HFMD in Guangdong Province, and to provide scientific basis for early warning and prevention and control of HFMD in Guangdong Province. Methods based on the HFMD surveillance data and meteorological data from 2009 to 2012 in Guangdong Province, a classified regression tree model was established to find out the threshold effect of meteorological factors on HFMD, and to predict the high risk period of HFMD in 2013. Results the results of regression tree model showed that when the mean temperature 鈮，
本文编号：2321846
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