污水流行病学方法调查尼古丁消费量研究

发布时间：2019-01-19 18:09

【摘要】：吸烟危害人体健康的同时也增加国家公共健康的经济负担。烟草消费行为调查目前以问卷调查为主,该调查方法存在时间长、费用高、工作量大的特点,为克服传统方法的弊端,发展出基于污水分析的污水流行病学方法调查烟草消费。本文利用污水流行病学方法调查了大连市的烟草消费情况,通过采集大连市11个污水厂内不同批次的污水进水样品,测定尼古丁及其代谢产物可替宁的浓度,通过建立估算模型反推计算烟草消费数量并对估算结果进行不确定性和敏感性分析,确定估算模型参数对烟草消费量的影响,为制定相关的控制措施提供一定的依据。实验中利用主动采样器采集11个污水厂内不同月份的24小时综合污水进水样品进行空间地域性差异分析,以及代表性污水厂一个月的污水进水样品进行时间差异分析。污水样品使用固相萃取-色谱质谱进行处理以及分析。测得结果显示,代表性污水厂——LSH污水厂连续一个月进水水样的分析结果显示都有尼古丁和可替宁检出,其浓度范围分别为 2.17-32.58 ng/mL 及 0.41-1.70ng/mL,尼古丁消费量达 184.5±62.5g/d,范围在75.2-316.6 g/d之间,无明显时间差异性。而11个污水厂进水水样中可替宁及尼古丁的平均浓度分别为1.46±0.50ng/mL和9.39±3.96ng/mL,消费量反推结果显示,15周岁以上吸烟者人均尼古丁消费量6.18±3.26mg/d,人均吸烟根数10.4±5.5CPD,并且呈现出明显的城市低于郊区的现象。采用蒙特卡洛模拟对人均尼古丁消费量和15周岁以上吸烟者人均吸烟根数进行不确定性分析,结果表明随着模型参数的增多,不确定性也会增大。敏感性分析表明对15周岁以上吸烟者人均尼古丁消费量影响最大的参数为可替宁的代谢比例,而对人均吸烟根数影响最大的三个参数分别为吸烟时的尼古丁摄入率、每支香烟的尼古丁含量以及可替宁的代谢比例,此三项参数应在研究中重点控制。基于污水流行病学方法建立的烟草消费模型能够实时、客观和准确预测城市烟草消费量,得到的数据也与现有的传统流行病学方法获得的数据具有很好的一致性。
[Abstract]:While smoking endangers human health, it also increases the economic burden of national public health. At present, the survey of tobacco consumption behavior is based on questionnaire survey. This method has the characteristics of long time, high cost and large workload. In order to overcome the disadvantages of traditional methods, a sewage epidemiological method based on sewage analysis was developed to investigate tobacco consumption. The tobacco consumption in Dalian was investigated by using the method of sewage epidemiology. The concentration of nicotine and its metabolite, cotinine, was determined by collecting the influent samples of different batches of wastewater from 11 wastewater treatment plants in Dalian. By establishing an estimation model to calculate the amount of tobacco consumption and analyzing the uncertainty and sensitivity of the estimated results, the influence of the parameters of the estimation model on tobacco consumption is determined, which provides a basis for the formulation of relevant control measures. Active sampler was used to collect 24 hour integrated wastewater influent samples from 11 wastewater treatment plants in different months for spatial regional difference analysis and time difference analysis for typical wastewater inlet samples of one month in a typical wastewater treatment plant. The wastewater samples were treated and analyzed by solid phase extraction-mass spectrometry. The results showed that nicotine and cotinine were detected in the influent water samples of LSH wastewater treatment plant for one consecutive month, and the concentration ranges were 2.17-32.58 ng/mL and 0.41-1.70 ng / mL, respectively. Nicotine consumption was 184.5 卤62.5 g / d, ranging from 75.2-316.6 g / d, with no significant time difference. However, the average concentrations of cotinine and nicotine in the influent water of 11 wastewater treatment plants were 1.46 卤0.50ng/mL and 9.39 卤3.96ng / mL, respectively. The average nicotine consumption of smokers over 15 years old was 6.18 卤3.26mg / d. The number of smoking per capita was 10.4 卤5.5 CPD, and it was obviously lower than that in the suburbs. Monte Carlo simulation was used to analyze the uncertainty of nicotine consumption per capita and smoking root number of smokers over 15 years old. The results showed that the uncertainty would increase with the increase of model parameters. Sensitivity analysis showed that the ratio of cotinine metabolism was the most important parameter affecting the consumption of nicotine per capita in smokers over 15 years old, while the three parameters that had the greatest influence on the number of smoking roots per person were the nicotine intake rate of smoking. The nicotine content of each cigarette and the metabolic ratio of cotinine should be controlled in the study. The tobacco consumption model based on wastewater epidemiology method can predict urban tobacco consumption in real time, objectively and accurately, and the obtained data are in good agreement with the data obtained by traditional epidemiological methods.
【学位授予单位】：大连海事大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：R181

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