南通市水痘疫情时间序列分析

发布时间：2019-04-13 14:54

【摘要】：目的应用季节乘积求和自回归移动平均模型分析南通市水痘每月发病数时间序列,为建立疫情预测模型提供参考依据。方法利用Eviews软件对南通市2008至2014年间水痘病例月报告数进行建模,首先采用自然对数转换、差分法平稳序列,然后估计模型参数,对模型进行检验,筛选最优模型,最后进行预测分析。结果成功建立模型ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,1,0)12,模型表达式为:(1-B12)lnxt(1-0.579 4B)(1+0.312 2B12)=鐔t。模型通过残差白噪声检验,P0.05;平均绝对百分误差为8.90%,预测精度较高。运用该模型预测2015年1—6月病例数分别为67,36,64,55,72和87例。结论该模型对南通市水痘发病情况拟合和趋势预测结果较好,可根据预测结果开展水痘疫情相关防控准备工作。
[Abstract]:Aim to analyze the time series of monthly incidence of varicella in Nantong city by using seasonal product and autoregressive moving average model so as to provide reference for the establishment of epidemic situation prediction model. Methods the Eviews software was used to model the monthly reports of varicella cases from 2008 to 2014 in Nantong City. The natural logarithm transformation, difference method and stationary sequence were used first, then the parameters of the model were estimated, the model was tested, and the optimal model was screened. Finally, the prediction analysis is carried out. Results the model ARIMA (1, 0, 0) (1, 1, 0, 0) 12 was successfully established. The expression of the model was (1-B12) lnxt (1 / 0.579 4B) (1 0.312 2B12) = t. The model has passed the residual white noise test, P 0.05, the average absolute percent error is 8.90%, and the prediction precision is high. The model was used to predict 67, 36, 64, 55, 72 and 87 cases from January to June, 2015, respectively. Conclusion the model can be used to fit the incidence of varicella and predict the trend of varicella in Nantong City, and it can be used to prepare for the prevention and control of varicella epidemic situation according to the predicted results.
【作者单位】：江苏省南通市疾病预防控制中心病媒生物防制科;
【分类号】：R725.1;R181.3

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