决定论的几率何以可能？

发布时间：2017-12-31 04:11

本文关键词：决定论的几率何以可能？　出处：《浙江大学》2015年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：通常认为决定论的几率是不可能的(其中几率值不能取0或1)。然而,有学者认为决定论和几率是可以兼容的,并且提出了几套用于协调决定论和几率的方案。但是,持反对立场的人提出了充分的论据来反驳决定论的几率之可能的观点。从直觉上来看,决定论的几率是个悖论:如果一切被自然法则决定好了,那么何来客观的几率这一说法呢?且从客观几率的角色和定义上来看,决定论的几率几乎也是不可能的。而我们持决定论和客观几率可以兼容的立场。一方面,从还原论的立场给几率下的定义有问题,使得其含义受到了某种限制,并且不能满足一般的对几率的来源和原则等进行解释的要求。另一方面,从几率的来源上修改和扩充几率的产生原则这种做法是可行的也是有根据的。于是,我们得出了对几率的新解释,从而使几率的含义摆脱了过于狭窄的一系列原则的束缚。扩大了几率概念,使得几率能够担当起通常认为其所不能承担的角色。同时,我们保留了以往人们对决定论的定义,并没有使得它为了刻意迎合客观几率而做出原则上的让步。比如,修改决定论中自然法则的含义。尽管决定论中自然法则的含义会随着历史和人们的认识而改变,但是至少在这里,我们认为不需要让决定论的含义做出如此这般的牺牲,尽管,和几率相融洽的决定论的概念会发生某种微妙的改变。而这一经过新的解释之后的几率——我们称之为强几率。我们会通过对休谟随附的探讨,对几率的还原论解释的批判,并借助于维特根斯坦的概率观,进一步阐释强几率这一概念。
[Abstract]:Usually the chances that determinism is not possible (the probability value cannot take 0 or 1). However, some scholars believe that determinism and probability are compatible, and puts forward several sets for coordination of determinism and probability. However, the opposition people put forward sufficient arguments to refute the decision on the chance of possible point of view. From the intuitive point of view, the probability of determinism is a paradox: if everything is the law of nature decided, then what this statement of objective probability? And from the role and definition of objective probability point of view, the probability of determinism is almost impossible and we. Objective to determinism and probability can be compatible with the position. On the one hand, from the theory of reducing the chance to define the position, make its meaning under some restrictions, and can not meet the general probability of the source and the principle in interpretation to . on the other hand, from the risk sources to modify and expand the production rate principle of this approach is feasible and warranted. Thus, we obtained a new interpretation of the probability, so that the probability of the meaning from the shackles of too narrow a series of principles. Expand the probability concept, makes the chance to play it is generally believed that the play cannot assume the role. At the same time, we kept the people in the past definition of determinism, and did not make it to make compromise of principle in order to pander to the probability of the objective. For example, a decision to modify the natural law theory meaning. Although the determinism of natural law meaning will change with the understanding of history and people here, but at least, we don't need to make such a decision on the meaning of sacrifice, though, the concept and the probability of harmony determinism will have some subtle changes Change. And this probability after the new explanation is called strong probability. We will criticize Hume's theory of reductionism and discuss the concept of strong probability by virtue of Wittgenstein's probability view.

【学位授予单位】：浙江大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：B017.8

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