侦查假设的建立与回溯推理

发布时间：2018-03-27 15:14

本文选题：假说　切入点：侦查假设　出处：《西南政法大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：侦查假设是侦查逻辑学的一个重要组成部分，是侦查认识活动不可分割的一个重要方面。在侦查形势变幻莫测的背景下，建立的侦查假设质量的高低，直接决定着案件能否侦破，犯罪分子能否被绳之以法。作为一种侦查思维方式，它的正确与否决定着整个侦查思维的进程和侦查活动的开展。因此，如何建立更为科学合理的侦查假设对于案件的侦破工作时至关重要的。本文结合回溯推理的相关理论，分析了建立侦查假设的整个过程，着重分析了如何建立可以有效指导案件侦查的合理假设，以推动侦查假设的理论研究，进而指导侦查实践。本文分为三个部分：第一部分：侦查假设概述。从侦查假设的理论基础——科学假说入手，在分析科学假说特征及其发展的基础上提出侦查假设的涵义；在对侦查假设的基本涵义进行详细阐述的前提下，提出建立侦查假设的总原理——P—H—D循环，将侦查假设的建立以逻辑循环的模式呈现出来，使建立的侦查假设更为科学合理。第二部分：回溯推理基本理论。由回溯推理的起源及发展开始讨论，分析回溯推理的定义，并将其与演绎、归纳推理进行区别；回溯推理的逻辑形式几经演变，从皮尔斯到汉森，从齐姆宾斯基到国内学者的改进、改良模式，这些理论研究都极大地促进了回溯推理理论的发展，尤其是被国内学界普遍认同的“改进模式”，其从前提到结论的表述都更加的完善，也更能够反映出回溯推理的实质内涵；最后，结合休谟的因果关系理论对回溯推理进行因果分析，并在此基础上对其模式进行强度判定，将回溯推理的逻辑形式细分为几种强弱度不同的模式，以期更加详细的研究回溯推理。第三部分：侦查假设的建立。此部分是本文研究的重点，侦查假设与回溯推理是两种不同的逻辑方法，，但是两者之间却存在着十分紧密的逻辑联系，存在着一个结合点，而这个结合点就是侦查假设的建立。因此，该部分从建立侦查假设的意义、原则以及方法入手，结合典型案例详细分析了如何运用回溯推理的几种强弱模式建立以及排除侦查假设，正确的指导案情分析，最终侦查破案，将理论成功的运用在侦查实践中，更好的指导侦查实践。
[Abstract]:The investigation hypothesis is an important part of the investigation logic and an inseparable important aspect of the investigation cognition activity. Under the background of the unpredictable investigation situation, the quality of the investigation hypothesis established is high or low. It directly determines whether the case can be solved and whether the criminals can be brought to justice. As a mode of thinking of investigation, whether it is correct or not determines the process of the whole investigation thinking and the development of investigation activities. How to establish a more scientific and reasonable investigation hypothesis is very important for the detection of cases. Based on the related theory of retrospective reasoning, this paper analyzes the whole process of establishing the investigation hypothesis, and emphatically analyzes how to establish the reasonable hypothesis which can guide the investigation of the case effectively, in order to promote the theoretical research of the investigation hypothesis. This paper is divided into three parts:. The first part: the summary of investigation hypothesis, starting with the theoretical basis of investigation hypothesis-scientific hypothesis, on the basis of analyzing the characteristics of scientific hypothesis and its development, the meaning of investigation hypothesis is put forward. On the premise of expounding the basic meaning of investigation hypothesis in detail, the general principle of establishing investigation hypothesis, P-H-D cycle, is put forward, and the establishment of investigation hypothesis is presented in the mode of logical cycle, which makes the established investigation hypothesis more scientific and reasonable. The second part: the basic theory of backtracking reasoning. From the origin and development of backtracking reasoning, the definition of backtracking reasoning is analyzed, and it is distinguished from deductive reasoning and inductive reasoning. From Pierce to Hansen, from Zimbinsky to domestic scholars' improvement and improvement model, these theoretical studies have greatly promoted the development of the theory of backtracking reasoning. In particular, the "improvement model", which is generally accepted by the domestic academic circles, is more perfect in the expression of the conclusions mentioned before, and can also reflect the essential connotation of the retrospective reasoning. Combined with Hume's causality theory, this paper analyzes the causality of backtracking reasoning, and on the basis of this, determines the intensity of its model, and subdivides the logical form of backtracking reasoning into several models with different degrees of strength and weakness. In order to study backtracking reasoning in more detail. The third part: the establishment of investigation hypothesis. This part is the focus of this study. Investigation hypothesis and retrospective reasoning are two different logical methods, but there is a very close logical relationship between them, and there is a joint point. And this joint point is the establishment of the investigation hypothesis. Therefore, this part starts with the significance, principles and methods of establishing the investigation hypothesis. Combined with typical cases, this paper analyzes in detail how to use several strong and weak models of retrospective reasoning to establish and exclude the investigation hypothesis, correctly guide the case analysis, and finally solve the case, and apply the theory successfully in the investigation practice. Better guide investigation practice.
【学位授予单位】：西南政法大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：D90-051

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