美国TPA法案表决的政治经济学分析

发布时间：2018-04-23 11:17

本文选题：贸易促进权(TPA) + 利益集团　；参考：《国际贸易问题》2017年05期

【摘要】：本文从政治经济学的角度探讨美国众议员在新TPA法案表决中的投票选择。以425名众议员为样本,运用完全信息极大似然法进行模型估计和模拟分析。主要实证结果如下:利益集团的政治捐款和众议员的意识形态都显著影响议员投票,其可在一定程度上解释议员投票选择上的政党差异;选区经济社会特征对议员投票无显著影响。实证结果支持"保护待售"模型,但议员们并未完全被金钱支配,他们对经济问题的意识观念也在较大程度上左右其投票选择。研究结论对预测乃至影响美国对华贸易政策具有较强的启示意义。
[Abstract]:This paper discusses the voting options of US Representatives in the new TPA Act from the perspective of political economy. With 425 congressmen as a sample, the model estimation and simulation analysis are carried out by using the maximum likelihood method of complete information. The main empirical results are as follows: the political donations of interest groups and the ideology of congressmen have a significant impact on the voting of members, which can explain to some extent the differences of political parties in the voting choices of members of parliament; The economic and social characteristics of the constituency have no significant influence on the members' vote. The empirical results support the "protect to sell" model, but lawmakers are not entirely dominated by money, and their perception of economic issues largely dictates their choice of vote. The conclusion of the study is of great significance to predict and even influence the trade policy of the United States towards China.
【作者单位】：苏州大学东吴商学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金面上项目“贸易便利化的实现路径及机理研究”(71573187);国家自然科学基金面上项目“中国企业在东亚生产网络的嵌入与升级研究”(71373168)
【分类号】：D971.2;F224

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