侦查假设与决策理论

发布时间：2018-06-02 02:15

本文选题：假说 + 侦查假设　；参考：《西南政法大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：侦查假设贯穿于整个侦查破案的全过程，为侦查活动指明了方向，并促进侦查工作的不断发展和深入。因此，侦查假设的建立过程也是侦查人员对案件不断深化认识的过程。面对一些高科技高智商犯罪的复杂情形，要保证破案的质量和效率，在建立侦查假设的过程中就有必要借助于决策理论以改善侦查假设的认识过程。因此，本文将试从决策理论的角度去审视侦查假设。本文结合相关决策理论，通过分析决策理论的思维方式和决策方法，并从决策理论的视野中探讨了侦查假设所面临的实际情形，进而把决策理论的相关决策模型应用在侦查假设的建立过程中，从而指导侦查人员深化对案件的认识。本文分为三个部分：第一部分：侦查假设之模式分析首先运用了比较分析的方法详细地阐述了假说的定义和侦查假设的涵义以及二者的区别，指出侦查假设对侦查工作的指导作用；其次讨论了侦查假设的提出，通过对侦查假设提出的路径进行分析后，指出非逻辑方法对侦查假设的提出具有重要的意义；再次讨论了侦查假设的验证，指出侦查假设的建立是提出假设和验证假设的往复循环过程；最后，探讨了决策和认识的关系，指出侦查假设与决策理论具有逻辑相关性。第二部分：决策理论首先从决策的基本要素开始讨论，，然后分析了归纳逻辑中所讨论的决策类型；其次讨论了古典决策理论中最有影响力的贝叶斯决策理论，通过对贝叶斯决策模式的分析，引出了贝叶斯决策的两大核心概念：效用和主观概率，并指出了贝叶斯决策假定的缺陷；最后讨论了现代决策理论，从“理性”出发，逐步分析了有限理性理论、前景理论和自然决策理论的决策模式，并以“理性”为出发点，分析了现代决策理论对贝叶斯决策理论的修正，然后指出现代决策理论是在修正后的贝叶斯决策理论的理论背景下发展起来的。第三部分：决策理论在侦查假设中的应用这部分是本文的核心所在，笔者一开始从决策理论的视野去审视侦查假设，指出侦查假设的建立是一种专业化、信息不充分、时间紧迫、环境不确定的决策。并讨论了侦查人员作为决策者应当充分运用决策理论的相关思维方式和模型去高效、合理、正确的建立侦查假设。接着探讨了贝叶斯决策理论在侦查假设中的应用，用案例分析的方法分析了最大期望效用原则在侦查假设中的具体应用，并讨论了贝叶斯决策理论对侦查假设的借鉴意义。最后重点探讨了现代决策理论中的自然决策理论在侦查假设中的应用，由于自然决策理论主要是研究时间紧迫、情形不确定的真实决策过程，所以它非常符合侦查假设所面临的实际决策情形。因此，笔者把自然决策理论在侦查假设中的应用作为本部分的重中之重进行探讨，同样运用了案例分析的方法分析了自然决策理论中最重要的RPD模型在侦查假设中的应用，并进一步讨论了现代决策理论在实践中对侦查假设的借鉴意义。
[Abstract]:The investigation hypothesis runs through the whole process of the whole investigation, points out the direction for the investigation activities and promotes the continuous development and deepening of the investigation work. Therefore, the establishment process of the investigation hypothesis is also the process of the investigators' deepening the understanding of the cases. Efficiency, in the process of establishing investigation hypothesis, it is necessary to use decision theory to improve the cognitive process of investigation hypothesis. Therefore, this paper will try to examine the hypothesis of investigation from the perspective of decision theory.
This paper analyzes the thinking mode and decision-making method of decision theory, and probes into the actual situation of the investigation hypothesis in the view of decision theory, and then applies the decision model of decision theory to the establishment process of the investigation hypothesis, and guides the investigators to deepen the understanding of the case. It is divided into three parts:
The first part: an analysis of the mode of investigation hypothesis
Firstly, it expounds the definition of the hypothesis and the meaning of the hypothesis of investigation and the difference between the two, and points out the guiding role of the investigation hypothesis to the investigation work. Secondly, it discusses the hypothesis of the investigation, and points out that the non logical method has put forward the hypothesis of the investigation after the analysis of the path of the investigation hypothesis. It is of great significance; again, it discusses the verification of the hypothesis of investigation, and points out that the establishment of the investigation hypothesis is the reciprocal cycle of the hypothesis and the hypothesis, and finally, the relationship between decision and cognition is discussed, and the logical relevance of the investigation hypothesis and the decision theory is pointed out.
The second part: the decision theory
First of all, it starts from the basic elements of decision making, then analyzes the type of decision discussed in the inductive logic. Secondly, it discusses the most influential Bias decision theory in the classical decision-making theory. Through the analysis of the Bias decision-making model, it leads to the two core concepts of Bias's decision making: utility and subjective probability, and points out that In the end, Bias's decision theory is discussed. Finally, the modern decision theory is discussed. Starting from "rationality", the theory of finite rationality, the prospect theory and the decision-making model of natural decision theory are gradually analyzed. And based on the "reason", the amendment of the modern decision theory to Bias's decision theory is analyzed, and then the modern decision theory is pointed out. Under the background of the modified Bayesian decision theory, the theory has been developed.
The third part: the application of decision theory in investigation hypothesis.
This part is the core of this article. I begin to examine the hypothesis of investigation from the perspective of decision-making theory, and point out that the establishment of investigation hypothesis is a kind of decision making with specialization, insufficient information, urgent time and uncertain environment. High efficiency, reasonable and correct establishment of investigation hypothesis.
Then the application of Bayesian decision theory in the investigation hypothesis is discussed, and the application of the maximum expected utility principle in the investigation hypothesis is analyzed with the method of case analysis, and the significance of the Bayesian decision theory to the investigation hypothesis is discussed.
Finally, the application of the natural decision theory in the modern decision-making theory in the investigation hypothesis is discussed. Because the natural decision theory is mainly a real decision making process that studies the time pressing and the uncertainty of the situation, it is very consistent with the actual decision situation of the investigation hypothesis. As the most important part of this part, the application of the case analysis is also used to analyze the application of the most important RPD model in the natural decision theory in the investigation hypothesis, and further discuss the significance of the modern decision theory to the investigation hypothesis in practice.
【学位授予单位】：西南政法大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：D90-051

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