证据证明力评价的似然率模型

发布时间：2018-06-09 21:18

本文选题：相关性 + 证明力　；参考：《华东政法大学学报》2017年01期

【摘要】：从概率论的视角看,证据与待证命题是否相关,取决于证据能否改变法官对命题为真的概率评价,证明力的大小则取决于这种改变的程度。似然率模型是一种评价证据证明力的量化方法,它可以统一描述证据"能否"以及在"何种程度"上影响人们对待证命题为真的概率评价。似然率模型有助于法官心证形成过程的明示化、规范化和科学化,对防止法官滥用自由裁量权具有重要的现实意义和应用价值。许多国家普遍应用似然率模型以评价DNA证据的证明力,但有更多问题尚待进一步研究。
[Abstract]:From the point of view of probability theory, whether the evidence is related to the propositions to be proved depends on whether the evidence can change the judge's evaluation of the true probability of the propositions, and the power of proof depends on the degree of such changes. Likelihood rate model is a quantitative method to evaluate the power of proof. It can describe whether the evidence can be proved or not and to what extent it can influence the probabilistic evaluation of the propositions to be proved. The likelihood rate model is helpful to the ostensibility, standardization and scientization of the forming process of the judge's psychological evidence, and has important practical significance and application value to prevent the judge from abusing the discretion. In many countries, likelihood rate models are widely used to evaluate the probative power of DNA evidence, but more problems need to be further studied.
【作者单位】：华东政法大学人文学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金一般项目“法律证据推理的归纳概率逻辑研究”(项目号15BZX084)的阶段性研究成果
【分类号】：D915

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