创业板制造业企业财务风险预警研究

发布时间：2018-01-11 19:02

本文关键词：创业板制造业企业财务风险预警研究　出处：《昆明理工大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：自2009年创业板上市以来,受到众多投资者的青睐。但随着年报数据的披露和分析,其高盈利性和高投资价值的光环也在逐渐褪去。同时随着当前国内经济新常态下产业调整阵痛和市场风险加大,再加上创业板企业发展不稳定、规模较小、风险管理意识淡薄、规章制度不健全等特征无疑使得它们所面临的财务风险更加凸显。针对创业板企业建立适当的财务风险预警模型,完善企业风险管理体系,帮助企业及早发现风险解决问题,使其在瞬息万变的经济环境下健康可持续发展,具有重要意义。同时对于有效引导创业板市场发展,促进相关金融机构开展有效监督有着重要的参考价值和借鉴作用。本文在总结梳理国内外学者的对企业财务风险预警相关研究的基础上,结合创业板制造业企业的发展状况和财务特征,根据创业板制造业企业2012年-2015年间中报、年报数据选取了财务健康和财务危机配对企业共34对样本数据,结合财务指标和非财务指标,从偿债能力、盈利能力等9个维度选取了 45个指标,通过正态分布检验、显著性检验和因子分析,确定了建立Logistic财务预警模型的7个主要因子,最终随机选取28对样本建立了创业板制造业企业的财务风险预警模型,并用28对训练样本和6对检验样本对其准确性和可靠性进行了检验。结果显示检验准确度分别为91.1%和91.7%,证明了模型具有良好的预警效果。在此基础上,本文运用2015年创业板制造业企业的相关数据,进行财务预警分析,结果在301家创业板制造业企业中,有42家企业被预警为财务危机企业,在这些企业中大多数属于中低技术水平的制造业,且其偿债能力、盈利能力等指标与正常企业存在着明显差异。最后,通过分析,文章提出了加强防范创业板制造业企业财务风险的相关对策和建议。
[Abstract]:Since 2009, gem listing has been favored by many investors. However, with the disclosure and analysis of annual report data. Its high profitability and high investment value halo is gradually fading. At the same time with the current domestic economy under the new normal industrial adjustment pains and increased market risks plus the growth Enterprise Board enterprise development instability the scale is small. Risk management awareness is weak, the rules and regulations are not perfect and other characteristics make their financial risks more prominent. For the gem enterprises to establish an appropriate financial risk warning model, improve the enterprise risk management system. It is of great significance to help enterprises to find out the risks and solve the problems as soon as possible, so that they can develop healthily and sustainably under the rapidly changing economic environment. At the same time, it is of great significance to effectively guide the development of the gem market. To promote the effective supervision of financial institutions has an important reference value and reference. This paper summarizes the domestic and foreign scholars on the basis of financial risk early warning research. According to the development and financial characteristics of gem manufacturing enterprises, according to the gem manufacturing enterprises from 2012 to 2015 in the report. The data of the annual report selected a total of 34 pairs of financial health and financial crisis matched enterprise sample data, combined with financial indicators and non-financial indicators, from 9 dimensions of solvency, profitability selected 45 indicators. Through normal distribution test, significance test and factor analysis, seven main factors of establishing Logistic financial early warning model are determined. Finally, 28 pairs of samples are randomly selected to establish the financial risk early warning model of gem manufacturing enterprises. 28 pairs of training samples and 6 pairs of test samples were used to test its accuracy and reliability. The results showed that the accuracy of the test was 91.1% and 91.7% respectively. It is proved that the model has good early warning effect. On this basis, this paper uses the relevant data of gem manufacturing enterprises in 2015 to carry out financial early warning analysis, and the results are in 301 gem manufacturing enterprises. There are 42 enterprises as financial crisis enterprises, in which most of them belong to the manufacturing industry of low and medium technology level, and their solvency, profitability and other indicators are obviously different from normal enterprises. Finally. Based on the analysis, the paper puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions on how to prevent financial risks of gem manufacturing enterprises.
【学位授予单位】：昆明理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F425;F406.7

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