基于系统动力学的电力行业碳排放预测研究

发布时间：2018-03-23 23:06

本文选题：低碳经济　切入点：电力行业碳排放　出处：《华北电力大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：经济的快速发展和人民生活水平的不断提高使各国能源消耗逐渐增多,能源利用所带来的环境恶化、能源枯竭及气候变暖等问题引起了世界各国的广泛关注,资源与环境的协调发展成为世界各国重点关注的问题。中国作为世界上最大的发展中国家,同时也是目前世界上最大的能源消费国和二氧化碳排放最多的国家,面临巨大的节能减排压力,电力工业作为国民经济中二氧排放最大的部门之一,其排放量已达到总排放量的39%。因此,对电力行业碳排放进行分析和预测,对于发展低碳经济,建立低能耗、低污染、低排放的电力发展模式,实现中国节能减排的战略目标具有重要意义。本文首先对碳排放的计算和碳排放的影响因素进行了分析,利用对数平均权重分解法构建了电力行业碳排放因素分解模型,定量分析了1999-2013年间能源结构、电力结构、发电煤耗率等对电力行业碳排放的影响,然后利用系统动力学的建模方法,运用Vensim软件构建电力行业碳排放的系统动力学模型,并对模型进行有效性检验,模型中将碳排放系统分为碳排放能源子系统、碳排放环境子系统、碳排放经济子系统和碳排放人口子系统,通过模型有效性检验后,对电力行业碳排放系统设定了三种不同情景下的模拟:基准情景、低碳情景和超低碳情景。模拟的结果是,在基准情景下,2030年电力行业碳排放量将达到102.186亿吨;在低碳情景下,2030年电力行业碳排放量将达到92.3496亿吨;在超低碳情景下,2030年电力行业碳排放量将达到83.4256亿吨。通过对未来的经济发展模式预测模拟,并结合碳排放系统模拟结果,针对电力行业碳排放系统的影响因素,从优化电源结构、调整能源结构、降低供电煤耗、增加科技投入以及优化产业结构等方面给出了减排建议。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of economy and the continuous improvement of people's living standard, the energy consumption is increasing gradually, the environmental deterioration, the energy depletion and the climate warming caused by the energy utilization have aroused the widespread concern of the countries all over the world. The coordinated development of resources and environment has become a major concern of all countries in the world. As the largest developing country in the world, China is also the largest energy consumer and carbon dioxide emitter in the world. Faced with the huge pressure of energy saving and emission reduction, the electric power industry, as one of the largest sectors of the national economy, has reached 39% of the total emissions. Therefore, to analyze and forecast the carbon emissions of the power industry, it is necessary to develop a low carbon economy. It is of great significance to establish a low energy consumption, low pollution and low emission electric power development model and to achieve the strategic goal of energy saving and emission reduction in China. Firstly, this paper analyzes the calculation of carbon emissions and the influencing factors of carbon emissions. Based on the logarithmic average weight decomposition method, the decomposition model of carbon emission factors in electric power industry is constructed, and the effects of energy structure, power structure and coal consumption rate on carbon emissions in power industry are analyzed quantitatively from 1999 to 2013. Then using the modeling method of system dynamics and using Vensim software to construct the system dynamics model of carbon emissions in power industry and verify the validity of the model. The carbon emission system is divided into carbon emission energy subsystem in the model. Carbon emission environment subsystem, carbon emission economy subsystem and carbon emission population subsystem. After checking the validity of the model, three different scenarios are set up to simulate the carbon emission system in power industry: benchmark scenario. Low carbon scenarios and ultra low carbon scenarios. The simulation results show that carbon emissions from the electricity industry will reach 10.2186 billion tons in 2030 under the baseline scenario and 9.23496 billion tons in the low carbon scenario. In the ultra-low carbon scenario, the power industry carbon emissions will reach 8.34256 billion tons by 2030. By forecasting the future economic development model and combining the results of the carbon emission system simulation, the paper aims at the influencing factors of the power industry carbon emission system. Some suggestions are given on optimizing the power supply structure, adjusting the energy structure, reducing the coal consumption of power supply, increasing the scientific and technological input and optimizing the industrial structure.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：X322;F426.61

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