油田勘探开发投资项目风险管理研究

发布时间：2018-05-31 00:18

本文选题：油田勘探开发 + 投资项目　；参考：《天津工业大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：石油资源作为现代工业的"血液",在当今世界经济中占有举足轻重的地位,具有重要的资源价值和战略意义。然而在近几十年中,石油供应能力的增长速度相对人们需求能力的增长速度要缓慢的多,致使油气价格不断攀升,石油供求矛盾日益突出,因此还需不断加强对油气的勘探开发力度。投资风险的研究主要是对投资风险的识别与应对策略的研究,是在任务实施前洞察和发现投资过程中潜在的各种风险,并对每项可能发生的风险进行策略上的应对研究。本文对处在投资前期的油田勘探开发的投资风险进行研究。对油田勘探开发的风险进行系统的识别与梳理,并从应对的角度进行应对策略研究,以期在项目的实施阶段能够保持项目的顺利进展,并对潜在的风险进行有效的风险控制,保护投资者利益。论文首先阐述了勘探开发油田的现实背景,对国内外相关研究的研究现状进行了评析和总结,并对本篇论文需要应用的相关理论进行了论述。其次通过文献分析统计法、调查问卷法对项目投资前期可能存在的风险进行了识别与归纳并对风险的产生原因进行了分析,建立了油田勘探开发投资风险指标体系。再次,在已经识别的风险因素群的基础上对需要重点关注的风险因素进行了确定,确定过程中本文在计算方法上采用的是本文提出的求解高阶矩阵最大特征值的拟Newton方法,包括Broyden算法、BFS算法、DFP算法。最后,对可能发生的风险因素进行了应对策略的研究,并给出了全文的研究结论。
[Abstract]:As the "blood" of modern industry, petroleum resource plays an important role in the world economy and has important resource value and strategic significance. However, in recent decades, the growth rate of oil supply capacity is much slower than that of people's demand ability, resulting in the rising oil and gas prices and the increasingly prominent contradiction between oil supply and demand. Therefore, it is necessary to strengthen the exploration and development of oil and gas. The research of investment risk is mainly about the identification of investment risk and the research of coping strategy. It is to observe and discover all kinds of potential risks in the process of investment before the implementation of the task, and to carry on the strategy research on each possible risk. This paper studies the investment risk of oil field exploration and development in the pre-investment period. The risk of oil field exploration and development is systematically identified and combed, and the coping strategies are studied from the perspective of response, in order to maintain the smooth progress of the project in the implementation stage of the project, and to effectively control the potential risks. Protect the interests of investors. Firstly, the paper expounds the realistic background of oil field exploration and development, evaluates and summarizes the research status of related research at home and abroad, and discusses the relevant theories that need to be applied in this paper. Secondly, through the statistical method of literature analysis and questionnaire, the paper identifies and induces the possible risks in the early stage of project investment, analyzes the causes of the risks, and establishes the risk index system of oil field exploration and development investment. Thirdly, on the basis of the identified risk factor group, the risk factors that need to be paid attention to are determined. In the process of determination, the quasi Newton method proposed in this paper is used to solve the maximum eigenvalue of higher order matrix. It includes Broyden algorithm and Broyden algorithm. Finally, the possible risk factors are studied and the conclusions are given.
【学位授予单位】：天津工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F426.22

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