中国省域能源消费碳排放及其驱动因素分解分析

发布时间：2018-06-01 09:50

本文选题：碳排放 + LMDI方法　；参考：《湖南科技大学学报(自然科学版)》2017年02期

【摘要】：在利用IPCC提供的参考方法对中国大陆30个省区(不包括西藏)1997~2012年能源消费碳排放量估算、分析的基础上,采用LMDI分解模型将碳排放的影响因子分解为人口规模效应、经济发展效应、能源强度效应、能源结构效应以及城乡人口结构效应和人均能源消费效应,并对江苏、河南、内蒙古和重庆4省区的碳排放驱动因素进行了实证分解.结果表明:中国各省域碳排放量和人均碳排放量均呈上升趋势,但增加幅度各省区明显不同;CO2排放强度存在明显的省区差异,表现为东部省份中部省份西部省份,除青海、宁夏和海南3省碳排放强度仍在增加外,其他各省区均呈下降趋势;经济发展、人口规模、城市化水平对碳排放表现为正向效应,能源强度、能源结构则表现为负向效应,其中经济发展对4省区能源消费碳排放正向效应最大,而能源强度对4省区碳排放负向效应最大;乡村人口比例、城乡人均能源消费量对4省区碳排放量的影响有限且存在较弱的正负波动.
[Abstract]:Based on the estimation of carbon emissions from energy consumption in 30 provinces and regions in mainland China (excluding Tibet from 1997 to 2012) using the reference method provided by IPCC, the impact factors of carbon emissions are decomposed into population scale effects by using LMDI decomposition model. Economic development effect, energy intensity effect, energy structure effect, urban and rural population structure effect and per capita energy consumption effect, and the carbon emission driving factors of Jiangsu, Henan, Inner Mongolia and Chongqing are analyzed empirically. The results show that the carbon emissions and per capita carbon emissions in each province of China are on the rise, but there are obvious differences in the intensity of CO _ 2 emission between the provinces and regions, which are manifested by the western provinces in the central provinces of the eastern provinces, except Qinghai, and the differences in the intensity of CO _ 2 emissions between the provinces and regions in each province. Except for the increase of carbon emission intensity in Ningxia and Hainan provinces, all other provinces and regions showed a downward trend, and the economic development, population size and urbanization level showed positive effects on carbon emissions, while energy intensity and energy structure showed negative effects. Among them, the positive effect of economic development on energy consumption carbon emissions in 4 provinces is the greatest, while the negative effect of energy intensity on carbon emissions in 4 provinces and regions is the greatest. Energy consumption per capita in urban and rural areas has a limited impact on carbon emissions in the four provinces and there are weak positive and negative fluctuations.
【作者单位】：湖南科技大学资源环境与安全工程学院;
【基金】：教育部人文社会科学资助项目(14YJAZH050) 湖南省社科基金资助项目(14YBA170)
【分类号】：F426.2;X24

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