低碳转型趋势下中国能源消费结构优化研究

发布时间：2018-06-09 21:10

本文选题：低碳转型 + 能源需求预测　；参考：《武汉大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：伴随着全球经济的稳步增长,世界各国对煤炭、石油等高碳能源消费量高居不下,二氧化碳排放量急剧增加,导致全球气候不断变暖,"温室效应"日益加剧,由其导致的一系列不良影响和危害已严重威胁人类的生存环境甚至生命健康。在此大背景下,减少二氧化碳排放量,促进低碳发展转型已成为世界各国在推动全球气候治理进程中的共识。自1978年以来,尤其是进入21世纪以来,中国经济持续高速增长,工业化和城镇化的进程不断加快,能源消费总量大幅增加——由2000年的146964万吨标准煤增长到2015年的430000万吨标准煤,年均增长7.42%。加之中国的能源消费以煤炭、石油等高碳能源为主,天然气、一次电力及其他清洁能源的消费总量总体占比常年低于17%,导致中国的二氧化碳排放量持续上升。2007年中国超越美国成为世界二氧化碳排放第一大国,2013年中国二氧化碳排放量超过美国和欧盟二氧化碳排放量之和,占全球二氧化碳排放总量近三成。与此同时,当前虽中国经济增长趋势放缓,但经济增速依旧维持中高速增长,2016年中国GDP增速为6.7%,GDP总量达到11万亿美元,占全球GDP总量的14.84%。同时中国还面临国内资源耗竭、环境污染等可持续发展压力以及塑造新的国家竞争优势客观上要求中国低碳发展转型。在此背景下,本文立足于能源结构,首先考虑低碳转型发展特征,结合国家最近公布的节能减排政策,分基准情景和约束情景,运用偏最小二乘回归对能源需求总量、能源结构及二氧化碳排放量进行预测;其次,考虑低碳转型的发展特征,综合考虑经济、能源、环境协调发展,构建了能源结构调整的多目标优化模型,研究在2016-2020年期间,在保证我国经济增速维持中高速增长的前提下,优化我国能源消费结构对节能减排的确切影响;最后,考虑低碳转型发展特征,将提高产出效益、减少能源消费总量和降低二氧化碳排放作为政府激励高碳能源消费企业发展低碳经济的三项重要任务,构建政府与高碳能源消费企业之间的多任务委托代理模型,并分析高碳能源消费企业努力成果的可观测性和任务间的关联程度对最优激励机制设计的影响,并提出相关政策建议。
[Abstract]:With the steady growth of the global economy, the consumption of coal, oil and other high-carbon energy sources in the world is high, and the carbon dioxide emissions are increasing sharply, resulting in the global climate becoming warmer and "Greenhouse Effect" getting worse day by day. A series of adverse effects and harms caused by them have seriously threatened the living environment and even the health of human beings. In this context, reducing carbon dioxide emissions and promoting the transformation of low-carbon development has become the consensus of the world in the process of promoting global climate governance. Since 1978, especially since the beginning of the 21st century, China's economy has continued to grow at a high speed, and the process of industrialization and urbanization has been accelerating. Total energy consumption increased sharply-from 1.46964 billion tons of standard coal in 2000 to 4.3 billion tons of standard coal in 2015, an annual increase of 7.42 percent. In addition, China's energy consumption is dominated by coal, oil and other high-carbon energy sources. Natural gas, China's carbon dioxide emissions continued to rise as a result of an overall consumption of less than 17 percent of primary electricity and other clean energy sources. In 2007, china overtook the United states to become the world's largest carbon dioxide emitter, and in 2013, china's oxidation dioxide Carbon emissions exceed the combined carbon dioxide emissions of the United States and the European Union, It accounts for nearly 30% of the world's total carbon dioxide emissions. Meanwhile, while China's economic growth trend is slowing, it is still growing at a moderate and high speed, with gross domestic product reaching $11 trillion in 2016, accounting for 14.84 per cent of global gross domestic product. At the same time, China also faces the pressure of sustainable development, such as exhaustion of domestic resources, environmental pollution, and shaping new national competitive advantage. In this context, based on the energy structure, this paper first considers the characteristics of low-carbon transformation and development, combined with the recently announced policies of energy conservation and emission reduction, sub-benchmark scenario and constraint scenario, using partial least squares regression to the total energy demand. Secondly, considering the development characteristics of low-carbon transformation, considering the coordinated development of economy, energy and environment, a multi-objective optimization model of energy structure adjustment is constructed, and the model is studied in 2016-2020. On the premise of maintaining medium and high speed economic growth in our country, optimizing the energy consumption structure of our country will definitely affect energy saving and emission reduction. Finally, considering the development characteristics of low-carbon transformation, the output efficiency will be improved. Reducing the total amount of energy consumption and reducing carbon dioxide emissions are three important tasks for the government to encourage high-carbon energy consuming enterprises to develop a low-carbon economy. A multi-task principal-agent model between the government and high-carbon energy consumption enterprises is constructed. This paper also analyzes the influence of the observability of high carbon energy consumption enterprises' effort achievement and the degree of correlation between tasks on the design of optimal incentive mechanism, and puts forward some relevant policy suggestions.
【学位授予单位】：武汉大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F426.2

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