吉林省工业经济发展与工业碳排放关系分析

发布时间：2018-06-18 23:45

本文选题：工业经济发展 + 工业碳排放　；参考：《吉林大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：工业是国民经济的命脉。在工业经济全面发展的同时,化石燃料的大量消耗和温室气体的排放,对自然环境造成严重破坏,甚至将阻碍经济社会的正常运行。吉林省是我国重要的工业基地,加工制造业较为发达。长期以来,以重工业为主的产业结构,以煤炭消费为主的能源结构,使吉林省碳排放量剧增,自然环境不断恶化,面临着节能减排的严峻压力,吉林省工业经济发展的步伐受到影响。研究吉林省工业经济发展与工业碳排放之间的关系,对促进吉林省工业经济可持续健康发展,推动吉林省工业部门节能减排工作具有重要意义。本文以2000-2015年吉林省三大行业34个子行业的面板数据为基础,首先对吉林省工业整体及其下属三大行业的产值及碳排放数据进行平稳性检验、协整关系检验和格兰杰因果关系检验,分析了吉林省工业经济发展与碳排放量之间存在的关系。其次,本文运用LMDI分解方法,具体应用扩展后的Kaya恒等式进行分解,对吉林省工业碳排放影响因素各时期的变化特点及贡献效应值进行了测量,研究工业分行业碳排放的影响因素。随后运用扩展的IPAT模型,分析长期内工业经济发展、工业内部行业结构、工业行业能源强度、能源消费结构等因素对工业碳排放变化的弹性贡献大小。研究发现:(1)2000-2015年间,吉林省工业碳排放整体上呈现增长趋势,节碳减排压力大;(2)工业经济发展与碳排放之间存在着产值增长和碳排放增长之间长期稳定的双向因果关系;(3)工业经济发展效应是吉林省工业碳排放剧增的最主要原因;产业结构效应对工业碳排放增长影响效果不明显;能源消耗强度的变化对吉林省工业碳排放量减少贡献较大,提高能源消费效率和技术进步水平是节碳减排的最重要方式;(4)从吉林省工业分行业碳排放影响因素的实证分析来看,能源效率水平的提高对吉林省工业碳排放的抑制作用最为明显,其次为工业内部行业结构、人均工业产值、固定资产投资规模,能源消费结构对工业碳排放的影响最小。最后,本文结合实证分析结果,为吉林省工业行业节碳减排提出了政策建议。
[Abstract]:Industry is the lifeblood of the national economy. With the overall development of industrial economy, the consumption of fossil fuels and the emission of greenhouse gases will cause serious damage to the natural environment and even hinder the normal operation of the economy and society. Jilin Province is an important industrial base of our country, processing manufacturing industry is more developed. For a long time, the industrial structure based on heavy industry and the energy structure based on coal consumption have greatly increased the carbon emissions of Jilin Province, and the natural environment has been deteriorating constantly, facing the severe pressure of energy saving and emission reduction. The pace of industrial economic development in Jilin Province has been affected. It is of great significance to study the relationship between industrial economic development and industrial carbon emission in Jilin Province, to promote the sustainable and healthy development of industrial economy in Jilin Province, and to promote energy saving and emission reduction in industrial sector of Jilin Province. Based on the panel data of 34 sub-industries in Jilin Province from 2000 to 2015, this paper first tests the output value and carbon emission data of the three major industries in Jilin Province. The cointegration test and Granger causality test are used to analyze the relationship between industrial economic development and carbon emissions in Jilin Province. Secondly, by using the LMDI decomposition method and the extended Kaya identity, the change characteristics and contribution effects of industrial carbon emission factors in Jilin Province are measured. To study the influencing factors of carbon emission in industrial subsectors. Then, the extended IPAT model is used to analyze the elastic contribution of industrial economic development, industry structure, energy intensity and energy consumption structure to the change of industrial carbon emissions in the long run. The study found that industrial carbon emissions in Jilin Province as a whole showed an increasing trend between 2000 and 2015. There is a long and stable two-way causality relationship between industrial economic development and carbon emission growth) the industrial economic development effect is the main reason for the sharp increase of industrial carbon emissions in Jilin Province. The effect of industrial structure effect on industrial carbon emission growth is not obvious, and the change of energy consumption intensity contributes greatly to the reduction of industrial carbon emissions in Jilin Province. Improving the efficiency of energy consumption and technological progress is the most important way to reduce carbon emissions. (4) from the empirical analysis of the factors affecting carbon emissions of industrial subsectors in Jilin Province, The improvement of energy efficiency level has the most obvious restraining effect on industrial carbon emissions in Jilin Province, followed by the industrial structure, industrial output per capita, fixed asset investment scale and energy consumption structure, which have the least effect on industrial carbon emissions. Finally, based on the results of empirical analysis, the paper puts forward some policy recommendations for carbon saving in Jilin industrial industry.
【学位授予单位】：吉林大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：X22;F427

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