变电运行作业风险评估研究

发布时间：2018-09-10 08:15

【摘要】：随着电网规模不断的扩大,大修技改和综合自动化改造的项目也越来越复杂,这些给供电企业的运行、维护带来严峻挑战。变电站运行作业是电网安全运行的重要一个环节,他们承担着倒闸操作和日常维护等基础性工作。然而,从历年的事故事件报告原因上看,其中有很大部分是由于运行管理失误导致的。变电运行作业安全,它对人身、设备及电网安全都起着十分重要的作用。因此,做好变电运行作业风险评估和预控意义重大。首先,本文介绍了风险评估的研究背景以及国内外研究现状。简单对比了风险评估几种方法,对定性评估和定量评估有了初步认识。为了让本文研究的结果更具科学性和指导性,经结合变电运行工作实际,拟采取定性和定量相结合的评估方法。其次,分析了风险的内涵和风险相关管理知识,总结了风险评估在风险管理中的地位和作用,并对典型的风险辨识和风险评估方法进行综述。同时,本文对变电运行作业内容进行相关概述,总结了因运行管理导致的典型事故类型,并对其原因进行分析。针对变电运行工作特点,本文基于德菲尔法建立变电运行作业风险库,以220kV母线停电作业风险为例,从行为危害因素、物理危害因素、人机功效伤害因素以及环境危害因素等方面,查找引起作业风险的因素。在辨识完风险因素之后,本文以模糊综合评价法构建风险评估模型,通过层次分析法分析各评价指标之间的权重,再采用模糊综合评价法对风险进行定量评估。本文结合220kV母线停电作业风险为例,进行理论阐述和算法验证,得出了物理危害因素在风险因素中的重要比例,为风险评估人员提供理论支持和模型推演。最后,根据评估的结果,本文给变电运行作业安全提出建议和预控措施,为变电运行作业安全提供理论参考。
[Abstract]:With the expansion of power network scale, the project of overhaul and comprehensive automation reform is becoming more and more complicated, which brings severe challenges to the operation and maintenance of power supply enterprises. Substation operation is an important link in the safe operation of power grid. They undertake the basic work of switching operation and daily maintenance. However, most of the accidents reported over the years are due to mismanagement. Substation operation safety, it plays a very important role in human, equipment and power grid safety. Therefore, it is of great significance to do a good job of risk assessment and pre-control of substation operation. Firstly, this paper introduces the research background of risk assessment and the current research situation at home and abroad. Several methods of risk assessment are compared and a preliminary understanding of qualitative assessment and quantitative assessment is obtained. In order to make the results of this study more scientific and instructive, a qualitative and quantitative evaluation method is proposed. Secondly, it analyzes the connotation of risk and risk related management knowledge, summarizes the status and role of risk assessment in risk management, and summarizes the typical risk identification and risk assessment methods. At the same time, this paper summarizes the contents of substation operation, summarizes the typical accident types caused by operation management, and analyzes the causes. According to the characteristics of substation operation, this paper establishes the risk database of substation operation based on Defel method. Taking the risk of 220kV busbar outage as an example, the paper analyzes the risk factors of behavior hazard and physical hazard. Human-machine efficacy injury factors and environmental hazard factors, to find out the operational risk factors. After identifying the risk factors, this paper constructs a risk assessment model by fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, analyzes the weights of each evaluation index by AHP, and then uses the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to evaluate the risk quantitatively. Taking the risk of 220kV busbar outage as an example, this paper expounds the theory and verifies the algorithm, obtains the important proportion of physical hazard factors in the risk factors, and provides theoretical support and model deduction for the risk assessors. Finally, according to the evaluation results, this paper puts forward suggestions and pre-control measures for substation operation safety, and provides a theoretical reference for substation operation safety.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学(北京)
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F426.61

【参考文献】