安徽省城镇化进程与建筑业发展动态关系研究

发布时间：2019-05-22 19:16

【摘要】：安徽省城镇化进程的不断加快,在促进社会进步、经济增长、居民生活水平提高的同时,带动了建筑业市场的繁荣发展,而建筑业作为安徽省经济发展的重要支柱产业,其快速发展也对城镇化建设也产生了重要影响。因此,针对安徽省城镇化进程与建筑业发展的动态关系进行研究,对促进安徽省城镇化与建筑业协调发展至关重要。本文首先分析了安徽省城镇化和建筑业的发展现状及存在的问题,在此基础上,利用安徽省1992-2015年城镇化率、人均GDP和建筑业增加值的统计数据,基于VAR模型,通过对变量进行平稳性检验和协整检验,以及脉冲响应函数和方差分解分析,对安徽省城镇化进程与建筑业发展之间的长期均衡关系及其动态性进行实证研究。实证分析发现,安徽省城镇化率、人均GDP与建筑业增加值之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系;城镇化率、人均GDP的变动对建筑业增加值有正面促进作用,而建筑业增加值的变动也促进了城镇化率和人均GDP的增长;城镇化率、人均GDP对建筑业增加值的方差分解贡献度较大,而建筑业增加值对城镇化率、人均GDP的方差分解的贡献度也较高。理论和实证研究表明,安徽省城镇化与建筑业存在相互促进、相互依存的关系。最后,结合安徽省城镇化与建筑业发展中存在的不协调因素,本文提出促进安徽省城镇化与建筑业协调发展的政策建议。
[Abstract]:With the continuous acceleration of urbanization in Anhui Province, while promoting social progress, economic growth and the improvement of residents' living standards, the construction industry, as an important pillar industry of Anhui Province's economic development, has led to the prosperity and development of the construction market. Its rapid development has also had an important impact on the construction of urbanization. Therefore, it is very important to study the dynamic relationship between urbanization process and the development of construction industry in Anhui Province to promote the coordinated development of urbanization and construction industry in Anhui Province. This paper first analyzes the current situation and existing problems of urbanization and construction in Anhui Province. On this basis, based on the statistical data of urbanization rate, per capita GDP and added value of construction industry in Anhui Province from 1992 to 2015, based on the VAR model, Through the stationarity test and cointegration test of variables, as well as impulse response function and variance decomposition analysis, this paper makes an empirical study on the long-term equilibrium relationship and dynamics between urbanization process and the development of construction industry in Anhui Province. The empirical analysis shows that there is a long-term and stable equilibrium relationship between the urbanization rate, per capita GDP and the added value of the construction industry in Anhui Province. The change of urbanization rate and per capita GDP has a positive effect on the added value of the construction industry, and the change of the added value of the construction industry also promotes the urbanization rate and the growth of per capita GDP. The contribution of per capita GDP to the variance decomposition of the added value of the construction industry is greater than that of the added value of the construction industry, while the contribution of the added value of the construction industry to the urbanization rate and the variance decomposition of the per capita GDP is also higher. Theoretical and empirical studies show that urbanization and construction in Anhui Province promote each other and depend on each other. Finally, combined with the uncoordinated factors in the development of urbanization and construction industry in Anhui Province, this paper puts forward some policy suggestions to promote the coordinated development of urbanization and construction industry in Anhui Province.
【学位授予单位】：安徽建筑大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F299.27;F426.92

【参考文献】