房地产信贷风险对我国银行体系脆弱性的影响研究

发布时间：2018-01-03 01:25

本文关键词：房地产信贷风险对我国银行体系脆弱性的影响研究　出处：《西南政法大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：自1998年我国实行住房货币化改革以来，我国房地产行业逐渐进入蓬勃发展时期。尤其近些年来，我国房地产价格大幅攀升，但居民对房地产的需求却不见减弱，银行在巨大盈利的驱使和良好预期下，不断对房地产行业投放贷款。这反过来又进一步促进了我国房价的升高。其次，我国商业银行贷款投放存在行业信贷集中现象。一方面，每年约有20%的银行信贷资金都投向了房地产行业，这个比例仅次于银行信贷对制造业的投放量。另一方面，，我国房地产开发企业的资金来源高度依赖于银行的信贷资金支持，根据数据显示，当前我国房地产开发企业的资产负债率在70%以上。可以说，我国商业银行的信贷资金已被房地产行业所绑架。由于房地产的特殊性，其同时具有实物资产和虚拟资产的特点，因此其价格波动要高于一般的实物资产，其资金链也非常的脆弱。尤其在房地产价格高企的情况下，我国房地产市场存在高度的泡沫现象，而银行又将大量资金过度投放于房地产行业，因此我国银行体系正不断积聚着风险。一旦房地产价格下跌，银行将面临严重的流动性风险而致偿付能力不足，加重整个银行体系的脆弱性，甚至引发银行危机。本文的研究对象是房地产信贷风险对我国银行体系脆弱性的影响，即房地产信贷风险是否会加剧我国银行体系的脆弱性或危及银行的稳健经营。本文于理论部分论证了房地产价格和房地产信贷集中对银行体系脆弱性的影响机制。在实证研究方面，选取了1998-2011年间的时间序列数据，运用单位根检验、格兰杰因果关系检验、协整分析等方法进行了实证检验。最后，结合理论分析和实证分析的结果提出了关于我国银行信贷风险管理等相关的对策建议。通过定性分析和实证分析结果来看，房地产贷款占国内信贷比重和房价收入比对我国银行体系脆弱性的影响成正相关关系。这表明银行必须严格控制房地产信贷规模，防止房地产信贷集中度风险并警惕个人住房贷款风险，才能防止房地产信贷对银行体系脆弱性的风险进一步扩大。
[Abstract]:Since 1998, China's implementation of the housing reform, China's real estate industry has gradually entered a period of vigorous development. Especially in recent years, China's real estate prices rose sharply, but the demand for real estate has not weakened, the bank in the huge profits and good expectations, continue lending to the real estate industry this in turn promotes the rise of house prices in China. Secondly, the existence of industry credit concentration phenomenon in our country commercial bank loans. On the one hand, every year there are about 20% of the bank credit funds into the real estate industry, the proportion of the amount after the bank credit to the manufacturing industry. On the other hand, China the real estate development enterprise funds is highly dependent on bank credit funds, according to statistics, China's current real estate development enterprise asset liability ratio in more than 70%. It can be said that China's commercial bank Bank credit funds have been kidnapped by the real estate industry. Due to the particularity of real estate, it also has the characteristics of physical assets and virtual assets, real assets so the price volatility is higher than the average, the capital chain is also very fragile. Especially in the condition of high real estate prices, the height of the bubble phenomenon the existence of the real estate market in China, while the bank will be a lot of money over invested in the real estate industry, so China's banking system is an accumulation of risk. Once the real estate prices, banks will face liquidity risk caused serious solvency problems, increase the vulnerability of the entire banking system, and even lead to the bank crisis.
The object of this study is the impact of the real estate credit risk on the vulnerability of the banking system in our country, whether the real estate credit risk in China will aggravate the vulnerability of the banking system or endanger the soundness of the banking business. This paper demonstrates the influence mechanism of real estate prices and real estate credit set on the vulnerability of the banking system in the theoretical part in the empirical research, choose time series data during 1998-2011, using unit root test, Grainger Granger causality test, cointegration analysis and other methods to make empirical analysis. Finally, combining with the results of theoretical analysis and empirical analysis put forward the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions on China's banking credit risk management.
Through the qualitative analysis and empirical analysis results, real estate loans accounted for the proportion of domestic credit and the real income effect on the vulnerability of the banking system in China is positively related. This indicates that the bank must strictly control the scale of real estate credit risk alert and prevent the risk of personal housing loan on real estate credit, in order to prevent the real estate credit risk about the fragility of the banking system to further expand.

【学位授予单位】：西南政法大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F832.45

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