金融发展对中国出口增长二元边际的影响

发布时间：2018-01-14 21:28

本文关键词：金融发展对中国出口增长二元边际的影响　出处：《南京财经大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：20世纪90年代以来，中国出口保持高速增长的态势，，到2009年中国已成为世界第一大出口国。但是近几年，随着人民币升值的加速，劳动力与原材料价格不断上升，我国出口的传统优势开始减弱，再加上2008年金融危机引发的外部需求萎缩，这些因素共同导致出口增速开始放缓，我国的出口贸易正面临着严峻的挑战。因此采取何种措施进一步促进我国的出口增长，成为当前我们所要研究的重要课题。理论和经验研究证明，金融发展可以成为一国贸易比较优势的重要来源，健全的金融体系可以提高企业的出口量与出口倾向。目前大多数学者都是从贸易增长的规模与结构的视角来分析金融发展与出口贸易的关系，很少有学者从贸易增长二元边际的视角解释两者之间的关系。在理论研究方面，本文对贸易二元边际以及金融发展影响贸易二元边际的相关文献进行述评；其次在Chaney(2005)所建立的异质性贸易理论的基础上阐述了金融发展对贸易二元边际的影响机制：金融发展一方面可以帮助企业克服出口的固定成本形成的资金约束，降低企业出口的生产率门槛,从而有利于扩展边际的上升，另一方面能够促进企业创新，带动企业生产率的提高，从而有利于集约边际的上升。在实证研究方面，本文利用2000-2009年HS6位数微观贸易数据，并借鉴Hummels和Klenow(2005)的分解方法，计算出中国对18个主要贸易伙伴国以及不同类型产品出口增长的二元边际，发现无论是国家层面还是产品类型层面中国的出口扩张主要是依靠集约边际实现的。在此基础上，本文构建金融发展的规模、效率与结构三个指标，通过面板模型的常规方法与分位数回归方法实证检验金融发展、进出口国市场规模、贸易成本、生产率、多边阻力、外商直接投资以及外部冲击等因素对我国出口增长二元边际的影响。研究发现：金融发展对二元边际有着明显的带动作用，金融发展对集约边际的影响要远远大于其对扩展边际的影响；随着二元边际的分布由低到高，金融发展对扩展边际的影响呈现先降后升趋势而对集约边际的影响则呈现出递减的趋势；其他影响因素也对二元边际表现出不同的影响机制，特别是劳动生产率对二元边际的影响呈现出“倒U形”的特征。最后，在前文研究结论的基础上提出针对性的政策建议，这为如何稳定我国的出口增长，提升我国的贸易竞争力提供了重要的参考。
[Abstract]:Since 1990s, China's exports have maintained a rapid growth trend. By 2009, China has become the world's largest exporter, but in recent years, with the acceleration of RMB appreciation. The rising prices of labor and raw materials, the weakening of the traditional advantages of China's exports, and the contraction of external demand caused by the financial crisis in 2008, together with these factors, led to the slowdown of export growth. China's export trade is facing severe challenges. Therefore, what measures should be taken to further promote the export growth of our country has become an important subject that we should study at present. Financial development can become an important source of a country's comparative advantage in trade. A sound financial system can improve the export volume and export tendency of enterprises. At present, most scholars analyze the relationship between financial development and export trade from the perspective of scale and structure of trade growth. Few scholars explain the relationship from the perspective of dual marginal trade growth. In the theoretical research, this paper reviews the dual marginal of trade and the related literature that the financial development affects the dualistic margin of trade. Second in Chaneyt 2005). On the basis of the heterogeneity trade theory, this paper expounds the influence mechanism of financial development on the dual marginal of trade: on the one hand, financial development can help enterprises overcome the financial constraints formed by the fixed cost of export. Lowering the threshold of enterprise's export productivity is beneficial to the increase of the margin of expansion, on the other hand, it can promote the innovation of the enterprise, promote the increase of the productivity of the enterprise, and thus benefit the rise of the intensive margin. In the empirical research, this paper uses the HS6 data from 2000 to 2009, and draws lessons from the decomposition method of Hummels and Klenowan 2005). The binary margin of growth in China's exports to the 18 major trading partners and to different types of products has been calculated. It is found that China's export expansion mainly depends on the intensive marginal level, whether at the national level or at the product type level. On this basis, this paper constructs three indicators of financial development: scale, efficiency and structure. Through the panel model of conventional methods and quantile regression method empirical test of financial development, import and export country market size, trade costs, productivity, multilateral resistance. The influence of foreign direct investment and external shocks on the dual marginal value of China's export growth. The influence of financial development on intensive margin is far greater than that on expansion margin; With the distribution of dualistic margin from low to high, the influence of financial development on the expansion margin is descending first and then rising, while the influence on the intensive marginal shows a decreasing trend. Other influencing factors also show different influence mechanisms on dualistic margin, especially the influence of labor productivity on dualistic marginal is "inverted U-shaped". Finally, on the basis of the previous research conclusions, the paper puts forward some policy suggestions, which provides an important reference for how to stabilize China's export growth and enhance China's trade competitiveness.
【学位授予单位】：南京财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F832.1;F752.62

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