经济周期与最优货币政策规则研究

发布时间：2018-01-16 22:17

本文关键词：经济周期与最优货币政策规则研究　出处：《武汉理工大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：为了稳定经济的波动,政策制定者应该做什么?本文探讨了政策制定者经济周期波动的环境中应该扮演什么样的角色。我们假定政策制定的原则是用利率规则稳定通胀和产出水平。强调产出稳定是要降低产出的波动性,而强调通胀的稳定就是要降低通胀的波动性。本文将一个广为人知的总供给模型和政策规则结合起来政策目标之间可能的替代关系。更一般地本章还探讨了不同的目标组合怎样影响了经济周期中的随机行为。接着本文考虑了加入收入分配的目标之后对之前的通货膨胀和产出目标的影响。本文从不同收入群体及央行之间的动态博弈过程着手研究,发现通胀会随着时间的推移不断增加,但是最终会趋于一个稳定的通胀率。而拥有多重目标的央行短期最优通货膨胀率会更低一些。从长期来看,在治理通胀的时候不仅要考虑政策的动态一致性,也可以考虑通胀对不同收入群体的冲击的差异性,因为考虑收入分配的目标之后可以降低通胀水平。然后本文为了实证检验货币政策对我国实体经济运行的效应,找出最优货币政策规则的一些经验证据,采用误差修正模型和脉冲响应函数分析我国的股市回报,产出,宏观经济政策,通胀等变量之间的关系。发现了货币供给和股市回报之间的负相关,及货币供给和产出增长之间的正相关,而股市回报率和产出增长都对通胀产生影响。因此在执行货币政策的过程中应考虑到由我国具体国情所产生的这些效应最后第六章给出了本文的结论和政策建议
[Abstract]:What should policymakers do to stabilize economic volatility? This paper discusses the role that policy makers should play in an environment of economic cycle fluctuations. We assume that the principle of policy formulation is to stabilize inflation and output by using interest rate rules. The emphasis on output stability is to reduce output. Volatility. The emphasis on inflation stability is to reduce inflation volatility. This paper combines a well-known aggregate supply model with policy rules as a possible alternative relationship between policy objectives. More generally, this chapter also discusses the differences. How the combination of objectives affects random behavior in the business cycle. Then this paper considers the effect of the target of income distribution on the inflation and output targets before. This paper starts with the dynamic game process between different income groups and central banks. It is found that inflation will increase over time, but will eventually tend to a stable rate. The short-term optimal inflation rate of central banks with multiple targets will be lower. In the long run. In dealing with inflation, we should consider not only the dynamic consistency of policy, but also the difference of the impact of inflation on different income groups, because considering the target of income distribution can reduce the inflation level. Then in order to empirically test the effect of monetary policy on the real economy of our country, this paper finds out some empirical evidence of the optimal monetary policy rules. The error correction model and impulse response function are used to analyze the relationship among the variables of stock market return, output, macroeconomic policy, inflation and so on. The negative correlation between money supply and stock market return is found. And the positive correlation between money supply and output growth, while both stock market returns and output growth have an impact on inflation. Therefore, these effects should be taken into account in the implementation of monetary policy. Chapter 6th gives the conclusions and policy recommendations of this paper.
【学位授予单位】：武汉理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F822.0

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