中国汇率、金融抑制与人民币国际化的冲突

发布时间：2018-05-13 03:16

本文选题：中国 + 汇率稳定　；参考：《经济社会体制比较》2014年02期

【摘要】：美联储近乎于零的利率政策放大了世界美元本位的不稳定性,导致有较高汇率水平的新兴市场的恐慌。中国开始加速人民币"国际化"进程,例如:开放国内金融市场,降低其在贸易计价货币和国际支付方面对美元的依赖。但是,尽管人民币离岸市场增长速度很快,中国政府基本上仍为外汇管制政策所困,国内利率层面的金融抑制强化了这一点,金融抑制的目的是为了防止外国资本流入降低人民币资产名义利率水平从而导致的通货膨胀和资产价格泡沫。因为浮动汇率(正在升值的)将吸引更多的热钱流入,因此,为了鼓励国内自然的工资上涨以平衡中国的国际竞争力,中国人民银行必须稳定美元对人民币的汇率。但是,人民币进一步国际化及上海自由贸易区将会被拖延,直到世界利率水平上升到自然水平。
[Abstract]:The Fed's near-zero interest rate policy magnified the instability of the world's dollar standard, leading to panic in emerging markets with higher exchange rates. China has accelerated the process of "internationalizing" its currency, for example by opening up its domestic financial markets and reducing its reliance on the dollar for its trade- denominated currencies and international payments. But despite the rapid growth of the offshore renminbi market, the Chinese government remains largely trapped by foreign exchange controls, reinforced by financial repression at the domestic interest rate level. The aim of the financial clampdown is to prevent inflation and asset price bubbles from falling nominal interest rates on renminbi assets in foreign capital inflows. Because a floating exchange rate (rising) will attract more hot money, the people's Bank of China must stabilise the dollar against the yuan in order to encourage natural wage rises at home to balance China's international competitiveness. But further internationalization of the yuan and the Shanghai Free Trade area will be delayed until world interest rates rise to natural levels.
【作者单位】：斯坦福大学;莱比锡大学经济政策研究所;首都经济贸易大学经济学院;
【分类号】：F832.6

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