欧盟量化宽松货币政策对中国的溢出效应研究
发布时间：2018-07-24 13:14
【摘要】：随着经济全球化的不断加深，国与国之间的经济、贸易联系不断加强，世界经济在因全球化飞速发展的同时也潜藏着诸多不稳定性因素。开放经济条件下，资本的自由流动、贸易的不断扩大使得金融风险的传播途径更丰富更加直接。2007年始发于美国的次贷危机，经一系列的传播，迅速扩散到世界各个角落，并逐渐发展成全球性的经济危机。受此次危机所累，众多国家陷入危机的泥潭中不能自拔，国内信贷金融体系崩溃、市场信心缺失、流动性不足等问题严重困扰着政策制定者。彼时，欧美日等发达经济体的国内利率相继降至1%以下，并长期徘徊在零附近，传统的货币政策实施已无空间，所以，为应对愈发加深的经济危机，美国、欧盟、日本不得不重启量化宽松的货币政策操作，试图挽救寒冬中的国民经济。2007年8月9日欧洲央行宣布其将按照4%的官方利率水平为欧元区内各商业银行提供无限的隔夜拆借流动性资金援助。自此欧盟持续进行量化宽松的货币政策操作，期间随着经济的逐渐复苏，欧盟计划退出量化宽松的操作，但欧债危机的爆发量化宽松在短暂的退出之后又被重启。欧盟量化宽松货币政策的实施使得欧元市场上的流动性供给快速增大，同时也向世界释放溢出效应。受此影响，，与其有密切的经济贸易往来的中国必会受到影响。这种溢出效应的作用方向、影响程度、溢出渠道等问题都值得我们深究。同时，面临世界主要经济体频繁的货币政策操作以及世界经济危机的冲击，我国如何有效地制定货币政策以应对外来溢出效应的影响都是亟待解决的问题。 本文立足于货币政策传导的理论基础，主要分析欧盟量化宽松货币政策对我国的溢出效应研究，借助计量经济模型重点对欧盟扩张性货币政策操作对我国实体经济的影响方向、影响程度、影响时间进行量化，并力图给出合理的政策建议以期能够使我国在中欧贸易、政策纠纷中获得支撑，同时为我国有效应对欧盟量化宽松货币政策对我国产生的溢出效应提供合理的建议。本文在对国内外相关文献进行梳理的基础上，总结了量化宽松货币政策的含义、实施工具、实施效果等相关理论，进而对货币政策溢出效应的概念、理论分析、传导渠道等问题作出归纳，之后介绍了欧盟货币银行体系以及量化宽松货币政策的实施过程。文章的第四部分注重对溢出效应做了实证分析，借助SVAR模型，本文构建了包含六个变量的结构向量自回归模型，选取了我国国内生产总值GDP、对欧净出口、外汇储备、原油及成品油进口量、利率等五个变量作为欧盟量化宽松货币政策实施的作用变量，通过对模型中时间序列的平稳性、协整关系、因果关系等检验，构建了稳定的SVAR(6)模型。通过对模型的脉冲响应函数和方差分解结果的分析，笔者得出结论：欧盟量化宽松货币政策的实施对我国确实产生了显著的溢出效应，且这种溢出效应通过多种渠道的传播最终对我国经济带来负面影响。针对实证结果本文认为货币政策当局应重视欧盟量化宽松货币政策操作对我国的影响，并采取多种措施降低其对我国经济的冲击。未来我国应增强货币政策制定的自主性，密切关注国际资本流向，实施灵活的外汇管理模式，提升出口产业的多元化水平，加强货币政策的国际协调，方为面对国际货币政策溢出效应的应对之策。
[Abstract]:With the deepening of economic globalization, the economic and trade relations between countries and countries have been strengthened continuously. The world economy is also hiding a lot of unstable factors at the same time because of the rapid development of globalization. Under the conditions of open economy, the free flow of capital and the continuous expansion of trade make the spread of financial risk more abundant and more direct.2007 years. The subprime crisis originating in the United States has spread rapidly to every corner of the world and gradually developed into a global economic crisis. As a result of this crisis, many countries are stuck in the mire of crisis, the collapse of the domestic credit and financial system, the lack of market trust, and the lack of liquidity have plagued the policy system seriously. At the same time, the domestic interest rate of the developed economies, such as Europe, America and Japan, has fallen to less than 1%, and has been hovering near zero for a long time. The implementation of traditional monetary policy has no space. So, in response to the deepening economic crisis, the United States, the European Union and Japan have to restart the quantitative easing monetary policy operation to try to save the national economy.2007 in the cold winter. In August 9th, the ECB announced that it would provide unlimited overnight lending liquidity assistance to commercial banks in the euro zone at 4% official interest rates. The EU continued to operate on quantitative easing monetary policy. As the economy gradually recovered, the EU plans to withdraw its quantitative easing operation, but the European debt crisis broke out. Quantitative easing has been restarted after a short withdrawal. The implementation of the EU's quantitative easing monetary policy makes the liquidity supply in the euro market faster and more spillover to the world. By this effect, China will be affected by its close economic and trade contacts. The direction of the effect of this spillover effect is the impact of the spillover effect. At the same time, in the face of the frequent monetary policy operation and the impact of the world economic crisis, how to effectively formulate monetary policy to cope with the effect of foreign spillovers is an urgent problem.
Based on the theoretical basis of monetary policy transmission, this paper mainly analyzes the spillover effect of the EU quantitative easing monetary policy on China, with the help of the econometric model on the direction of the impact of the European expansionary monetary policy on China's real economy, the degree of impact, the impact of time on the quantification, and the rational policy proposals. In order to enable China to support China EU trade and policy disputes, and provide a reasonable suggestion for our country to respond effectively to the spillover effect of the EU quantitative easing monetary policy. On the basis of combing the relevant literature at home and abroad, this paper summarizes the meaning of the quantitative easing monetary policy, implements the tools, and implements the effect. Fruit and other related theories, then the concept of monetary policy spillover effect, theoretical analysis, conduction channel and other issues are summarized, and then the European Monetary bank system and the implementation process of quantitative easing monetary policy are introduced. The fourth part of the article pays attention to the analysis of the spillover effect. With the help of the SVAR model, this paper consists of six parts. The variable structure vector autoregressive model is used to select the GDP of our country's GDP. The five variables, such as net export, foreign exchange reserve, import of crude oil and refined oil, interest rate, are used as the variables of the implementation of the EU quantitative easing monetary policy. By testing the stability, cointegration and causality of the time series in the model, The stable SVAR (6) model. Through the analysis of the impulse response function and the variance decomposition results of the model, the author draws a conclusion that the implementation of the EU quantitative easing monetary policy has a significant spillover effect on China, and this spillover effect has a negative impact on China's economy through the spread of various channels. This article holds that monetary policy authorities should attach importance to the impact of EU quantitative easing monetary policy on China, and take various measures to reduce its impact on China's economy. In the future, China should strengthen the autonomy of monetary policy formulation, pay close attention to the flow of international capital, implement flexible foreign exchange management model, and enhance the diversification of export industry. To strengthen international coordination of monetary policy is the way to deal with the spillover effects of international monetary policy.
【学位授予单位】：中国海洋大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F822.0;F821.0
本文编号：2141496
[Abstract]:With the deepening of economic globalization, the economic and trade relations between countries and countries have been strengthened continuously. The world economy is also hiding a lot of unstable factors at the same time because of the rapid development of globalization. Under the conditions of open economy, the free flow of capital and the continuous expansion of trade make the spread of financial risk more abundant and more direct.2007 years. The subprime crisis originating in the United States has spread rapidly to every corner of the world and gradually developed into a global economic crisis. As a result of this crisis, many countries are stuck in the mire of crisis, the collapse of the domestic credit and financial system, the lack of market trust, and the lack of liquidity have plagued the policy system seriously. At the same time, the domestic interest rate of the developed economies, such as Europe, America and Japan, has fallen to less than 1%, and has been hovering near zero for a long time. The implementation of traditional monetary policy has no space. So, in response to the deepening economic crisis, the United States, the European Union and Japan have to restart the quantitative easing monetary policy operation to try to save the national economy.2007 in the cold winter. In August 9th, the ECB announced that it would provide unlimited overnight lending liquidity assistance to commercial banks in the euro zone at 4% official interest rates. The EU continued to operate on quantitative easing monetary policy. As the economy gradually recovered, the EU plans to withdraw its quantitative easing operation, but the European debt crisis broke out. Quantitative easing has been restarted after a short withdrawal. The implementation of the EU's quantitative easing monetary policy makes the liquidity supply in the euro market faster and more spillover to the world. By this effect, China will be affected by its close economic and trade contacts. The direction of the effect of this spillover effect is the impact of the spillover effect. At the same time, in the face of the frequent monetary policy operation and the impact of the world economic crisis, how to effectively formulate monetary policy to cope with the effect of foreign spillovers is an urgent problem.
Based on the theoretical basis of monetary policy transmission, this paper mainly analyzes the spillover effect of the EU quantitative easing monetary policy on China, with the help of the econometric model on the direction of the impact of the European expansionary monetary policy on China's real economy, the degree of impact, the impact of time on the quantification, and the rational policy proposals. In order to enable China to support China EU trade and policy disputes, and provide a reasonable suggestion for our country to respond effectively to the spillover effect of the EU quantitative easing monetary policy. On the basis of combing the relevant literature at home and abroad, this paper summarizes the meaning of the quantitative easing monetary policy, implements the tools, and implements the effect. Fruit and other related theories, then the concept of monetary policy spillover effect, theoretical analysis, conduction channel and other issues are summarized, and then the European Monetary bank system and the implementation process of quantitative easing monetary policy are introduced. The fourth part of the article pays attention to the analysis of the spillover effect. With the help of the SVAR model, this paper consists of six parts. The variable structure vector autoregressive model is used to select the GDP of our country's GDP. The five variables, such as net export, foreign exchange reserve, import of crude oil and refined oil, interest rate, are used as the variables of the implementation of the EU quantitative easing monetary policy. By testing the stability, cointegration and causality of the time series in the model, The stable SVAR (6) model. Through the analysis of the impulse response function and the variance decomposition results of the model, the author draws a conclusion that the implementation of the EU quantitative easing monetary policy has a significant spillover effect on China, and this spillover effect has a negative impact on China's economy through the spread of various channels. This article holds that monetary policy authorities should attach importance to the impact of EU quantitative easing monetary policy on China, and take various measures to reduce its impact on China's economy. In the future, China should strengthen the autonomy of monetary policy formulation, pay close attention to the flow of international capital, implement flexible foreign exchange management model, and enhance the diversification of export industry. To strengthen international coordination of monetary policy is the way to deal with the spillover effects of international monetary policy.
【学位授予单位】：中国海洋大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F822.0;F821.0
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