基于金融生态环境视角的昆明金融风险预警机制研究

发布时间：2018-11-12 06:48

【摘要】：金融生态环境的优劣程度直接影响着金融风险的大小。防范金融风险，，不仅要加强金融系统的内部监管和完善市场机制，更要对其赖以生存和发展的外部环境加以综合考虑。良好的金融生态环境和建立健全的金融风险预警机制是防范和化解金融风险的重要保证。昆明以建设成为中国面向东南亚、南亚区域性国际金融中心为目标，以推动泛亚金融产业中心园区建设和区域性跨境人民币金融服务中心建设为重点，为了实现这一发展目标，昆明市政府高度注重金融生态环境建设和金融风险管理。如何防范、化解金融风险，将危机爆发的可能性降到最低水平，引导金融业安全稳定发展，是摆在昆明面前的一大难题，而建立科学合理的金融风险预警机制能够有效解决这一难题。基于此，本文从金融生态环境视角建立金融风险预警机制，首先搭建昆明金融风险预警研究框架，揭示金融生态环境对金融风险的作用机理；然后在综合分析昆明金融生态环境下潜藏金融风险的基础上，选择了一套数量适当而又能够最大限度刻画经济状况、金融发展、诚信与法治和政府行为的指标体系，并科学合理设定金融风险预警指标临界值和评判标准；其次运用层次分析法、熵值法、BP人工神经网络建立、训练、检验昆明金融风险预警模型，并结合二次指数平滑法预测未来两年内的金融风险状况；最后提出建立健全昆明金融风险预警机制的对策建议。本文研究预测结果显示2012年和2013年的昆明金融风险程度分别为0.1039和0.0877，呈现出蓝灯，表明未来两年昆明金融运行处于一个安全的范围内。
[Abstract]:The degree of financial ecological environment directly affects the size of financial risk. To prevent financial risks, we should not only strengthen the internal supervision of the financial system and perfect the market mechanism, but also give comprehensive consideration to the external environment on which the financial system depends for its survival and development. A sound financial ecological environment and a sound financial risk warning mechanism are important guarantees for preventing and defusing financial risks. Kunming aims to become a regional international financial center for China in Southeast Asia and South Asia, with a focus on promoting the construction of a pan-Asian financial industry center park and a regional cross-border RMB financial service center. In order to achieve this development goal, Kunming government attaches great importance to the construction of financial ecological environment and financial risk management. How to prevent and defuse financial risks, reduce the possibility of crisis to the lowest level, guide the safe and stable development of the financial industry, is a big problem in front of Kunming. The establishment of a scientific and reasonable financial risk warning mechanism can effectively solve this problem. Based on this, this paper establishes financial risk early warning mechanism from the perspective of financial ecological environment. Firstly, it sets up the research framework of Kunming financial risk early warning, and reveals the mechanism of financial ecological environment acting on financial risk. Then, on the basis of comprehensive analysis of latent financial risks in Kunming financial ecological environment, this paper chooses a set of index system which can describe economic situation, financial development, honesty, rule of law and government behavior. And scientifically and reasonably set the financial risk warning index critical value and evaluation standard; Secondly, using AHP, entropy method, BP artificial neural network to establish, train, test Kunming financial risk early warning model, and combined with quadratic exponential smoothing method to predict the financial risk situation in the next two years. Finally, the paper puts forward the countermeasures and suggestions to establish and perfect the financial risk warning mechanism in Kunming. The financial risk level of Kunming in 2012 and 2013 is 0.1039 and 0.0877 respectively, showing a blue light, indicating that Kunming financial operation is in a safe range in the next two years.
【学位授予单位】：云南师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F832.7

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