我国外汇占款对货币供应量的影响研究

发布时间：2018-11-19 07:40

【摘要】：外汇储备规模过大一直是影响我国宏观经济运行的一个隐患。特别是当前国际经济形势复杂多变,欧美各国经济经历了一个经济周期的谷底后,从萧条开始逐渐复苏。以促进经济为目的,各国纷纷采取宽松的货币环境,向市场注入大量的流动资金。我国经历了次贷危机和欧债危机的考验后,国内经济稳健发展,产业结构升级逐步展开,巨大的国内需求被逐渐开发出来,良好的经济势头必然会吸引外国投资者和国际投机资本的进入。外汇流入虽然会促进我国外向型企业的发展,提供更多的就业机会,但是外汇流入会增大外汇占款的规模,向货币市场注入过量货币资金,加大了我国输入型通货膨胀和投机性金融市场资产泡沫的风险。在我国现行管理浮动汇率制度和国际收支资本项目管制下,外汇持续流入通过银行系统的结售汇会形成庞大的外汇占款,所以,如何加强外汇储备的规模管理,冲销过多的外汇占款和针对外汇占款对货币供给的流通渠道制定更加有效的金融监管政策具有很强的现实经济意义。文章通过从我国货币内生性理论研究入手,分析了当前经济形势下,外汇占款对央行投放基础货币和货币流通时产生的货币乘数效应的影响机制,通过数据比例比较,认为外汇占款会增强货币供给的内生性。然后结合最新经济数据,构建包括外汇占款在内的影响货币供应量各因素的实证模型,来讨论外汇占款和M2的相关性以及外汇占款对M2的变动效应。再来通过分析比较现行外汇冲销干预的实践情况和操作工具的优缺点,讨论我国的外汇冲销操作的有效性和持续性。最后结合我国具体情况,提出了改善我国外汇占款冲销和外汇储备管理的政策建议。
[Abstract]:The excessive scale of foreign exchange reserves has always been a hidden trouble affecting the macro-economic operation of our country. Especially, the current international economic situation is complex and changeable. After a trough of economic cycle, European and American economies gradually recover from depression. In order to promote the economy, countries have adopted a loose monetary environment, injecting a lot of liquidity into the market. After the test of the subprime mortgage crisis and the European debt crisis, the domestic economy has developed steadily, the industrial structure has been upgraded and the huge domestic demand has been gradually developed. Good economic momentum is bound to attract foreign investors and international speculative capital. Although the inflow of foreign exchange will promote the development of export-oriented enterprises in China and provide more employment opportunities, the inflow of foreign exchange will increase the scale of foreign exchange holdings and inject excessive money funds into the money market. It increases the risk of imported inflation and speculative financial market asset bubble. Under the current management of floating exchange rate system and the capital account control of balance of payments in China, the continuous inflow of foreign exchange through the settlement and sale of foreign exchange in the banking system will result in a large amount of foreign exchange. Therefore, how to strengthen the management of the scale of foreign exchange reserves, It is of great practical and economic significance to sterilize excessive foreign exchange and to formulate more effective financial supervision policies for the circulation channels of money supply. Based on the theoretical study of monetary endogeneity in China, this paper analyzes the influence mechanism of foreign exchange occupying on the monetary multiplier effect when the central bank puts in the basic money and currency circulation under the current economic situation, and compares the ratio of the data. It is believed that foreign exchange will increase the endogenous nature of the money supply. Based on the latest economic data, this paper constructs an empirical model of the factors affecting the money supply, including foreign exchange, to discuss the correlation between foreign exchange and M2, as well as the effect of foreign exchange on M2. Then, by analyzing and comparing the practice of the current foreign exchange sterilisation intervention and the advantages and disadvantages of the operational tools, this paper discusses the effectiveness and sustainability of the foreign exchange sterilisation operation in China. Finally, according to the concrete situation of our country, some suggestions are put forward to improve the sterilisation of foreign exchange and the management of foreign exchange reserve.
【学位授予单位】：天津财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F832.6;F822.2

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