汇率弹性、货币篮设计与政策实效分析

发布时间：2018-12-27 17:17

【摘要】：2005年以来我国实行有管理的浮动汇率制度,该制度的核心为货币篮,货币篮的有效构建能够为我国稳健地增强汇率弹性奠定基础。本文设定政府目标函数为最小化外部账户波动,采用收支平衡模型推导出最优货币篮构建模型,并模拟出我国最优货币篮倾向于由美元、欧元、日元组成,其中美元权重约为40%。本文采用PMG方法对动态误差修正模型进行估计,评估我国货币篮政策的实际绩效,计量出采用货币篮政策前后我国进出口对汇率波动的短期和长期敏感性的变化,结论表明货币篮的缓冲作用显著,其中汇率对出口的冲击减缓平均2.897个百分点,对进口的冲击减缓平均4.722个百分点。
[Abstract]:Since 2005, China has implemented a managed floating exchange rate system, the core of which is the basket of money. The effective construction of the basket of money can lay the foundation for strengthening the exchange rate elasticity steadily. In this paper, the objective function of the government is to minimize external account fluctuations, the optimal currency basket model is derived by using the balance of payments model, and it is simulated that the optimal currency basket of our country is composed of US dollar, euro and yen. The dollar weight is about 40 cents. This paper uses PMG method to estimate the dynamic error correction model, evaluates the actual performance of China's monetary basket policy, and measures the changes of the short-term and long-term sensitivity of China's imports and exports to exchange rate fluctuations before and after the adoption of the monetary basket policy. The results show that the buffer effect of the currency basket is remarkable, in which the impact of the exchange rate on exports slows by an average of 2.897 percentage points, and the impact on imports by an average of 4.722 percentage points.
【作者单位】：上海外贸易学院国际经贸学院;
【基金】：教育部人文社会科学青年基金(11YJC790286)的资助
【分类号】：F832.6

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