我国通货膨胀与粮食价格的实证分析
发布时间：2019-01-01 17:47
【摘要】：发展中国家在经济结构二元化向一元化转变的过程中,农业特别是粮食产业会由于社会资源的有限性向工业倾斜,进而产生较大的波动,一旦粮食供应量的增加不能完全弥补其需求量,就会出现粮食供不应求的局面,从而造成价格的上涨。粮食价格作为百价之王,它的变动也许会造成连环式的影响,从而推动整个宏观经济物价水平的上升,造成通货膨胀。为探讨粮食价格与通货膨胀之间的关系,借助计量分析软件,实证分析了粮食价格对通货膨胀的影响。通过研究认为,粮食价格对通货膨胀的影响是显著的,呈正相关,两者互为格兰杰因果。
[Abstract]:In the process of transformation of economic structure from dualism to monism in developing countries, agriculture, especially the food industry, will incline to industry because of the limitation of social resources, which will bring about great fluctuations. Once the increase of grain supply can not completely make up for its demand, there will be a situation of shortage of grain supply, which will cause the price to rise. Food prices as the king of 100 prices, its changes may have a series of effects, thus pushing up the overall macroeconomic price level, resulting in inflation. In order to explore the relationship between grain price and inflation, this paper empirically analyzes the effect of grain price on inflation by means of econometric analysis software. According to the research, the effect of grain price on inflation is significant and positive correlation, the two are Granger causality.
【作者单位】： 南开大学经济学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金重大项目“完善国家宏观调控体系与保持经济平稳较快发展”(06&ZD028)
【分类号】：F224;F822.5;F323.7
[Abstract]:In the process of transformation of economic structure from dualism to monism in developing countries, agriculture, especially the food industry, will incline to industry because of the limitation of social resources, which will bring about great fluctuations. Once the increase of grain supply can not completely make up for its demand, there will be a situation of shortage of grain supply, which will cause the price to rise. Food prices as the king of 100 prices, its changes may have a series of effects, thus pushing up the overall macroeconomic price level, resulting in inflation. In order to explore the relationship between grain price and inflation, this paper empirically analyzes the effect of grain price on inflation by means of econometric analysis software. According to the research, the effect of grain price on inflation is significant and positive correlation, the two are Granger causality.
【作者单位】： 南开大学经济学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金重大项目“完善国家宏观调控体系与保持经济平稳较快发展”(06&ZD028)
【分类号】：F224;F822.5;F323.7
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