发展住房反抵押市场对我国居民和社会福利的影响

发布时间：2019-03-13 10:29

【摘要】：人口老龄化与社会基本养老保障不足已成为中国经济社会发展的突出问题。如何设计和建立新型的养老保障方式，来补充现有养老保障体系的不足，是非常重要且有意义的。为应对老龄化的挑战，美国、加拿大等发达国家成功推出了“以房养老”的解决方案，建立了住房反抵押市场。一个自然的问题是：发展住房反抵押市场能否有助于解决中国的养老问题？从经济学角度看，这一问题即是：发展住房反抵押市场能否提高居民和社会的福利？结合当前我国人口和经济的实际状况，本文首先考察了住房反抵押市场的引入对退休居民的影响。在退休居民理性优化其资产配置的假设下，本文的模拟结果显示，由于住房反抵押贷款较高的交易成本，房屋价值低且现金资产少的居民不能从该贷款中获得福利改善；对于适合参与该贷款的居民而言，选择恰当的参与时机是最大限度发挥住房反抵押福利改善功能的关键，对房屋价值较高且现金资产较多的退休居民而言，选择参与住房反抵押的最佳时机是在65岁以后。通过不同情形的比较，本文进一步论证了住房反抵押的福利改善作用会随着长寿风险的加剧而增强，并随着居民搬迁风险的加剧而减弱。这表明控制住房反抵押贷款的合约成本有助于其在不同情形下均能发挥福利改善功能。其次，本文考察了在代际间资源配置达到均衡的状态下，住房反抵押市场的引入对各代居民及社会总福利的影响。结果显示引入住房反抵押市场后，住房反抵押贷款成为退休居民的重要收入来源，降低了其对社会养老保障给付的依赖，从而使得社会养老保障的最优征税率下降，因而减轻了青年居民的养老负担，使居民一生的消费更加平滑，进而提高了总体的社会福利。我们进一步指出，，均衡状态下居民个体福利的改善依赖于居民的遗赠动机。通过不同情形的比较，本文模拟结果表明，住房反抵押的福利改善作用会随着老龄化程度的加剧而增强。基于以上发现，本文认为发展住房反抵押市场是对现有社会保障体系的有益补充。最后，本文在总结国外住房反抵押市场运营经验的基础上，通过详实的对比，结合理论分析结果，对我国如何发展住房反抵押市场提出了建议。
[Abstract]:The aging of population and the lack of basic old-age security have become a prominent problem in China's economic and social development. It is very important and meaningful to design and establish a new old-age security system to supplement the shortcomings of the existing old-age security system. In order to deal with the challenge of aging, developed countries such as the United States, Canada and other developed countries have successfully launched the solution of "housing for the aged" and established the housing counter-mortgage market. A natural question is: can the development of the housing counter-mortgage market help to solve the pension problem in China? From an economic point of view, the question is: can the development of housing counter-mortgage market improve the welfare of residents and society? Based on the current situation of China's population and economy, this paper first examines the impact of the introduction of housing counter-mortgage market on retired residents. Under the assumption that retired residents rationally optimize their asset allocation, the simulation results of this paper show that because of the high transaction cost of housing reverse mortgage, residents with low housing value and less cash assets can not get welfare improvement from the loan; For residents who are fit to participate in the loan, choosing the right time to participate is the key to maximizing the improvement function of housing countermortgage benefits, and for retired residents with higher housing value and more cash assets, The best time to take part in a home backmortgage is after 65. Through the comparison of different situations, this paper further demonstrates that the welfare improvement effect of housing countermortgage will increase with the increase of longevity risk, and weaken with the aggravation of residents' relocation risk. This shows that controlling the contractual cost of housing reverse mortgages can help them perform welfare improvement functions in different situations. Secondly, this paper investigates the impact of the introduction of housing reverse mortgage market on the residents and social welfare of different generations under the condition that the resource allocation among generations is balanced. The results show that after the introduction of housing counter-mortgage market, housing counter-mortgage loan has become an important source of income for retired residents, reducing their dependence on social old-age security payments, and thus making the optimal tax rate of social old-age security fall. Thus, it lightens the burden of old-age care of young residents, makes the consumption of residents smoother, and then improves the overall social welfare. We further point out that the improvement of the residents' individual welfare under the equilibrium state depends on the residents' bequest motivation. Through the comparison of different situations, the simulation results show that the welfare improvement of housing reverse mortgage will be enhanced with the increase of aging degree. Based on the above findings, this paper believes that the development of housing counter-mortgage market is a useful supplement to the existing social security system. Finally, on the basis of summarizing the operation experience of foreign housing counter-mortgage market, this paper puts forward some suggestions on how to develop the housing counter-mortgage market in China through detailed comparison and theoretical analysis.
【学位授予单位】：清华大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：D632.1;F832.45

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