人民币国际化制约因素研究

发布时间：2019-06-07 11:25

【摘要】：人民币国际化作为国家的重要战略部署,在过去的二十多年时间里已经取得了不小的成就。中国同周边以及欧洲等国的双边互换协议逐年扩大,人民币在境外流通领域成绩斐然,加上我国积极完善人民币国际化的配套设施,金融体系和离岸货币市场得以完善,人民币国际化作为国家品牌形象的战略输出已经形成了自己的优势。但是,我们在看到成绩的同时,更应该注意制约人民币国际化的不利因素。从国内方面讲,我国的经济竞争力水平与发达国家相比,差距明显,粗放的发展模式和二元经济结构制约着人民币国际化水平的提高；金融体系相对脆弱,2008年的金融危机使我们意识到我国与世界发达国家的金融水平不在同一个层次上；加工贸易是对外贸易的主要来源,品种单一,而且大量的外汇储备没有及时消化,反而成为了一种负担。从国际方面讲,美元的霸权优势依旧存在,日本担心人民币国际化危及到自己在亚洲的利益,通过各种手段加以阻挠；地缘政治上,东南亚以及美、日等国家鉴于自身国家安全利益的考虑,对人民币的国际化抱观望态度；区域经济环境也不容乐观,周边国家的利率水平低下,无法和我国达成有效的共识。无论是国内层次,还是国际层次,都制约着人民币国际化的发展道路。本论文就是在分析当前人民币使用状况的基础上,仔细分析种种制约人民币国际化的因素,为其能够很好的发展提供意见参考,保障我国的经济利益不受损害。本文主要采用比较分析、实证分析和政治经济学的分析方法。对比美元、日元和欧元的国际化道路,找到货币国际化内在的相通之处,从而为人民币的国际化提供更好的借鉴；结合央行以及外汇当局公布的实际数据,以实际的数据来说明我国的人民币国际化存在的制约因素；结合罗伯特·吉尔平的政治经济学的方法,进一步探讨人民币国际化问题。我国的人民币国际化受到太多的制约,国内方面属于先天的缺陷,中国政府主导的人民币国际化缺乏太多的活力,经济模式的落后是根源所在；国际方面,美元的强势依旧,美国的全球战略部署不希望看到他国货币危及自己的利益,尤其是在全球政治的腹地——亚太地区。因此说,人民币国际化如若不能解决自己本国的发展模式问题,就会缺乏动力支撑；突破不了美元的结构性限制,就很难在国际上有所作为。人民币国际化要循序渐进,积极寻找解决之道。
[Abstract]:As an important strategic deployment of the country, RMB internationalization has made great achievements in the past 20 years. China's bilateral swap agreements with neighboring countries, as well as with Europe, have expanded year by year, and the RMB has made great achievements in the field of foreign circulation. In addition, China has actively improved the supporting facilities for the internationalization of the RMB, and the financial system and the offshore money market have been improved. RMB internationalization as the strategic output of national brand image has formed its own advantages. However, while we see the achievements, we should pay more attention to the unfavorable factors that restrict the internationalization of RMB. From the domestic point of view, compared with the developed countries, the level of economic competitiveness of our country is obviously different, and the extensive development model and dual economic structure restrict the improvement of the internationalization level of RMB. The financial system is relatively fragile. The financial crisis in 2008 made us realize that the financial level of our country is not at the same level as that of the developed countries in the world. Processing trade is the main source of foreign trade, single variety, and a large number of foreign exchange reserves have not been digested in time, but become a burden. From the international point of view, the hegemonic advantage of the US dollar still exists. Japan is worried that the internationalization of the RMB endangers its interests in Asia and obstructs it by various means. Geopolitical, Southeast Asia, the United States, Japan and other countries in view of their own national security interests, the internationalization of the RMB hold a wait-and-see attitude; The regional economic environment is not optimistic, the interest rate level of neighboring countries is low, and can not reach an effective consensus with our country. Whether at the domestic level or at the international level, it restricts the development road of RMB internationalization. On the basis of analyzing the current situation of RMB use, this paper carefully analyzes all kinds of factors restricting the internationalization of RMB, so as to provide suggestions for its good development and ensure that the economic interests of our country are not damaged. This paper mainly uses comparative analysis, empirical analysis and political economy analysis methods. Compared with the internationalization of US dollar, yen and euro, we can find the internal similarities of currency internationalization, so as to provide a better reference for the internationalization of RMB. Combined with the actual data published by the central bank and foreign exchange authorities, this paper explains the restrictive factors of RMB internationalization in China with the actual data, and further probes into the internationalization of RMB in combination with Robert Gilpin's political and economic method. The internationalization of RMB in China is restricted too much, the domestic side belongs to the innate defect, the internationalization of RMB led by the Chinese government lacks too much vitality, and the backwardness of the economic model is the root. Internationally, the dollar is still strong, and the United States' global strategic deployment does not want to see other currencies endanger their own interests, especially in the Asia-Pacific region, the hinterland of global politics. Therefore, if the internationalization of the RMB can not solve the problem of its own development model, it will lack the motivation to support it; if it can not break through the structural constraints of the dollar, it will be difficult to make an international difference. RMB internationalization should be gradual and orderly, actively looking for solutions.
【学位授予单位】：华中师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F832.6

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