Dynamic Marginal Abatement Cost Curve Emission Cap and Tradi

  本文关键词：基于动态边际减排成本模拟的碳排放权交易与碳税选择机制，由笔耕文化传播整理发布。

基于动态边际减排成本模拟的碳排放权交易与碳税选择机制

Selection Mechanism between Emission Trading and Carbon Tax based on Simulation of Dynamic Marginal Abatement Cost

[1] [2] [3]

Wu Libo, Qian Haoqi and Tang Weiqi （ 1. Fudan University ; 2 . Center for European Economic Research, ZEW）

[1]复旦大学经济学院、复旦大学能源经济与战略研究中心,200433; [2]德国欧洲经济研究中心,200433;

文章摘要：微观企业面对减排约束时的行为选择对于减排成本产生直接影响，从而导致不确定性条件下数量控制与价格控制政策实施的有效性出现差异。本文将这一机制的理论模型纳入一般均衡分析框架，构建中国多区域动态一般均衡模型，模拟分析了各省市从2007年至2020年的边际减排成本曲线，并就其对温室气体控排的碳排放权交易与碳税政策的选择进行了研究。本文发现，一方面边际减排成本曲线的斜率会随着减排行动的推进而逐渐增大，另一方面也会出现拐点并进一步上翘，且不同省市其边际减排成本曲线上翘的幅度以及出现拐点的位置均存在差异。由于在信息不完全条件下，，数量政策更适用于边际减排成本较为平缓的情况，中国各省市边际减排成本曲线的动态特征说明碳排放权总量控制与交易机制更适用于现阶段中国实际；随着未来减排力度的加强，则要进一步考虑将碳税政策引入低碳政策体系中。

Abstr：When facing with emission constraint, firm＇s optimal behavior will be changed and thus affect abatement cost directly. As a result, the effectiveness of quantity control policy and price control policy will be different under this situation with uncertainty. This paper introduces this micro-mechanism into the dynamic regional computable general equilibrium model of China to simulate each region＇s marginal abatement cost curve from year 2007 to 2020 and study the choice between emission trading policy and carbon tax policy. Firstly, the results show that the slopes of each region＇s MAC curve will increase gradually and MAC curves will occur kink points. Secondly, slopes on both sides of MAC curve are different and kink points will move due to tighter emission constraint. For the reason that quantity control policy is more suitable than price control policy when there exists uncertainty and the slope of MAC curve is flat, the results imply that emission trading scheme is more applicable currently in China. But when emission target becomes more stringent in the future, policy makers should also introduce carbon tax into low carbon policy system.

文章关键词：

Keyword：:Dynamic Marginal Abatement Cost Curve Emission Cap and Trading Carbon Tax

  本文关键词：基于动态边际减排成本模拟的碳排放权交易与碳税选择机制，由笔耕文化传播整理发布。