城市出租汽车数量管制研究

发布时间：2018-02-28 15:28

本文关键词： 城市出租汽车运营博弈策略数量投放模型 Logistic模型神经网络算法　出处：《中南大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：作为媒体最为关注、民间改革呼声最高、主管部门最为头疼的公共管理政策之一——城市出租汽车数量管制政策,历来争议不断。本文应用产业组织、公地悲剧模型、博弈论、神经网络等理论来探索城市出租汽车数量投放的控制,所做的主要工作如下： (1)分析城市出租汽车服务分类、管制内容、行业模式；剖析北京市近30年来出租汽车行业的发展,总结出租汽车行业发展的四个阶段,明确出租汽车行业发展过程中资本与政策的作用； (2)结合出租汽车巡游服务市场的特点,构建城市出租汽车运营博弈模型,推导单寡头、双寡头、多寡头运营竞争下的博弈结果； (3)总结出租汽车运力调控指标、投放流程和运力新增方案的内容,从需求、供应、竞争三个维度梳理出租汽车数量投放的影响因素,建立自回归、Logistic和神经网络等出租汽车数量投放模型； (4)利用关联度理论设计指标筛选方法；对出租汽车数量投放进行实例分析,阐明各模型的适用情况；并用BP神经网络模型对未来出租汽车数量进行预测； (5)分析现有城市出租汽车数量管制存在的问题,提出缩短调控周期,动态调节运力；放开约租市场,支持技术创新两项策略措施。
[Abstract]:As the most concerned by the media, one of the most popular public management policies in charge, the urban taxi quantity control policy, has always been controversial. This paper applies the industrial organization, the tragedy model of the Commons, the game theory. Neural networks and other theories to explore the number of urban taxi delivery control, the main work done as follows:. 1) analyzing the classification, control content, industry pattern of urban taxi service, the development of taxi industry in Beijing in the past 30 years, and summarizing the four stages of the development of taxi industry. Clarify the role of capital and policy in the development of taxi industry; (2) combined with the characteristics of taxi tour service market, this paper constructs a game model of urban taxi operation, and deduces the game results under the competition of oligopoly, duopoly and multi-oligopoly. (3) summing up the indexes of taxi capacity regulation and control, the delivery process and the contents of the new scheme, and combing the influencing factors of taxi quantity from three dimensions: demand, supply and competition. The models of taxi quantity such as logistic regression and neural network were established. (4) designing index screening method by using the theory of correlation degree, analyzing the application of each model and forecasting the number of taxi in the future with BP neural network model. 5) analyzing the problems existing in the quantity control of urban taxi, and putting forward two measures: shortening the control period, dynamically regulating the transportation capacity, opening up the rental market and supporting the technological innovation.
【学位授予单位】：中南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：U492.434

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