汽车供应链风险传播及控制研究

发布时间：2018-03-04 00:28

本文选题：汽车供应链　切入点：风险传播　出处：《西南交通大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：全球化的发展,使得供应链的复杂程度越来越高；供应链运营环境的不确定性等因素,使得供应链更容易受到突发风险的影响。汽车供应链的节点企业数量多和节点企业之间业务联系紧密的特点,致使汽车供应链成为结构最复杂的供应链之一。全球化的采购策略、零部件的通用化等因素使得汽车供应链脆弱性增强、风险种类多样化。因此,本文以汽车供应链风险为研究对象,旨在研究风险在汽车供应链中的传播机理以及各个参数对汽车供应链风险传播的影响,依据传播机理特征提出汽车供应链的风险控制措施,为汽车供应链风险研究提供一定参考价值。本文主要从以下几个方面进行研究：1、通过分析已有的国内外研究现状,了解最新的理论研究成果,对现有的研究进行归纳总结,找出汽车供应链存在的主要风险因素,并对汽车供应链风险的控制理论进行研究。2、通过研究疾病传播理论并结合汽车供应链风险传播特点,构建改进的SIR模型。定义供应链风险传播过程中的传染率和恢复率概念,并给出具体的量化公式。3、通过研究证据理论,解决多源风险传播问题。通过研究发现,汽车供应链风险传播与节点企业的度、风险类型、风险爆发时序、初始感染的节点企业数量等因素有关,例如：风险类型的不同导致汽车供应链中传染率、恢复率不同,影响传播速度；企业的度、初始感染的节点企业数量不同,会影响传播范围。可得出结论：当核心企业成为免疫节点时,风险在汽车供应链的传播能得到有效控制,因而增强核心节点企业的风险免疫能力,可以减弱风险的传播效应。根据汽车供应链风险的传播机理,本文提出了汽车供应链风险控制的整体性、动态性等控制原则,根据各个阶段的汽车供应链风险阶段的特点提出了企业战略与文化风险控制、零部件采购风险控制等阶段控制措施,并从企业自身、合作企业等方面提出了汽车供应链整体的风险控制措施,达到对汽车供应链风险控制的目的。
[Abstract]:With the development of globalization, the complexity of supply chain is becoming more and more high, and the uncertainty of supply chain operation environment, It makes the supply chain more vulnerable to the impact of sudden risks. The automobile supply chain is characterized by the large number of node enterprises and the close business relationship between the node enterprises. As a result, automobile supply chain becomes one of the most complicated supply chains. The global purchasing strategy, the generalization of parts and other factors make the automobile supply chain more vulnerable and diversified. This paper takes the risk of automobile supply chain as the research object, aims to study the spread mechanism of risk in automobile supply chain and the influence of each parameter on the risk propagation of automobile supply chain, and puts forward the risk control measures of automobile supply chain according to the characteristics of transmission mechanism. This article mainly carries on the research from the following several aspects to carry on the research: 1, through the analysis existing domestic and foreign research present situation, understands the newest theory research result, carries on the summary to the existing research, Find out the main risk factors of automobile supply chain, and study the control theory of automobile supply chain risk. By studying disease spread theory and combining the characteristics of automobile supply chain risk transmission, This paper constructs an improved SIR model, defines the concepts of contagion rate and recovery rate in the process of risk transmission in supply chain, and gives a specific quantitative formula .3.Through studying the evidence theory, the problem of multi-source risk propagation is solved. The risk propagation of automobile supply chain is related to the degree of node enterprise, the type of risk, the time sequence of risk outbreak, the number of nodal enterprises initially infected, etc. For example, different risk types lead to different infection rate and recovery rate in automobile supply chain. It can be concluded that when the core enterprise becomes the immune node, the risk can be effectively controlled in the automobile supply chain. Therefore, enhancing the risk immunity ability of the core node enterprises can weaken the spreading effect of risk. According to the communication mechanism of automobile supply chain risk, this paper puts forward the control principles such as integrity and dynamics of automobile supply chain risk control. According to the characteristics of each stage of automobile supply chain risk stage, the paper puts forward the control measures of enterprise strategy and culture risk control, parts purchasing risk control and so on, and from the enterprise itself, In order to achieve the purpose of risk control of automobile supply chain, cooperative enterprises put forward the risk control measures of automobile supply chain as a whole.
【学位授予单位】：西南交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F274;F426.471

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