不确定环境下农产品供应链协调决策模型研究

发布时间：2018-03-25 08:27

本文选题：农产品供应链　切入点：不确定环境　出处：《浙江工业大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：我国国民经济的发展基础在于农业,农业的持续、稳定发展极大地推动着国民经济的迅速增长,以及对社会安定起到巨大的保障作用。近几年,我国在农产品产销一体化的模式方面,已提出了许多创新性的建议和措施。2008年商务部、农业部联合下发了《关于开展农超对接试点工作的通知》,“农超对接”正逐渐成为今后生鲜农产品流通的主要模式。此外,全国各地的农产品龙头企业也正极力推动农产品的品牌化经营,以解决我国农产品普遍存在的“卖难”问题。无论是以“超市+基地”的生产经营模式,还是以农产品龙头企业为主的品牌专营营模式,对“小农户大市场”的局面均起到一定的改善作用,但对于农产品生产者(或农民)的利益仍未很好地给予保障和提高。究其原因,主要在于产、销双方的地位和所承担的风险不平等,农户的利益极易受到损害。正如前几年虽然出现农产品价格大幅上涨,但农户收入却并未实现相应的倍增,这一迥异的现象更加深了人们对于农产品供应链的协调管理和利润分配的思考。本文针对农产品供应链中出现的不确定环境,建立相应的协调决策模型,研究产销双方在农产品生产投入量、订货量、销售价格方面的联合决策,以及处于风险约束下的供应链协调机制,最后得出有利于实现农产品供应链改善、保障农户利益的措施。论文首先简要介绍了农产品供应链的概念、特点及我国农产品供应链的现状。并在此基础上,详细地论述了本文所将涉及的供应链协调理论、不确定性分析和风险量化等相关理论知识；其次,针对我国农产品供应链的现状以及农业生产者在市场中的弱势地位,建立了企业和农户之间的Stackelberg博弈模型,分析产销双方对于订货与定价方面的联合决策。同时,进一步引入了风险度量模型,将农产品供应链中生产商对于产出不确定的风险态度和零售商对于需求不确定的风险态度分别进行量化分析,比较分析在不同契约的作用下,实现农产品供应链的协调与优化。最后,在考虑供应链成员不同风险态度的基础上,引入不同的契约,并讨论了如何设置契约参数来实现农产品供应链的帕累托改进,使利润在农户和零售企业之间进行合理地分配。
[Abstract]:The development of the national economy of our country is based on agriculture, the sustained and stable development of agriculture has greatly promoted the rapid growth of the national economy and played a great role in safeguarding social stability. China has put forward many innovative suggestions and measures on the mode of integration of agricultural products production and marketing. In 2008, the Ministry of Commerce, The Ministry of Agriculture jointly issued the notice on the pilot Project of Agricultural Super-docking, which is gradually becoming the main model for the circulation of fresh agricultural products in the future. Leading agricultural products enterprises throughout the country are also trying their best to promote the brand management of agricultural products in order to solve the widespread problem of "selling hard" agricultural products in our country, regardless of the mode of production and management based on "supermarket bases". Or the brand franchise model, which is dominated by leading enterprises in agricultural products, has played a certain role in improving the situation of the "large market for small farmers." However, the interests of producers (or farmers) of agricultural products are still not well protected and improved. The interests of farmers are extremely vulnerable. Just as the prices of agricultural products have risen sharply in previous years, the incomes of farmers have not doubled accordingly. This very different phenomenon has deepened people's thinking about coordinated management and profit distribution of agricultural product supply chain. In view of the uncertain environment in agricultural product supply chain, the corresponding coordinated decision-making model is established in this paper. This paper studies the joint decision of production input quantity, order quantity, sales price and supply chain coordination mechanism under the restriction of risk, and concludes that it is beneficial to the improvement of agricultural product supply chain. Firstly, this paper introduces the concept and characteristics of agricultural supply chain and the present situation of agricultural product supply chain in China. On the basis of this, it discusses in detail the supply chain coordination theory which will be involved in this paper. Secondly, aiming at the current situation of supply chain of agricultural products in China and the weak position of agricultural producers in the market, the Stackelberg game model between enterprises and farmers is established. The joint decision on ordering and pricing is analyzed. At the same time, a risk measurement model is introduced. The risk attitude of the producer to the uncertain output and the risk attitude of the retailer to the uncertainty of demand in the agricultural product supply chain are analyzed respectively, and the effect of different contracts is compared and analyzed. Finally, on the basis of considering different risk attitudes of supply chain members, different contracts are introduced, and how to set contract parameters to achieve Pareto improvement of agricultural product supply chain is discussed. So that the profits between farmers and retail enterprises to a reasonable distribution.
【学位授予单位】：浙江工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F326.6

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