LNG接收站库存管理与控制

发布时间：2018-03-29 17:23

本文选题：LNG接收站　切入点：库存管理　出处：《西南石油大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着我国经济的高速发展,天然气的需求将迅速增长,而我国常规天然气资源有限,需要大量进口液化天然气(LNG)来弥补天然气的供需缺口,因此,LNG接收站的建设也蓬勃发展。LNG接收站作为LNG供应链的中转站,起到承上启下的作用,只有匹配好LNG储罐的可接卸量与LNG船的卸货量,才能保证接收站的正常工作,避免接收站出现缺货或超货现象。这就要求我们从LNG供应链的角度对接收站的库存进行管理与控制。然而,我国对LNG接收站的研究尚处于起步阶段,还没有从LNG供应链的角度对接收站的库存进行研究。因此,本文从LNG供应链的角度出发,利用物流库存系统中的库存管理与控制方法来研究LNG接收站的库存控制问题。首先调研了物流系统中的库存管理与控制基础理论,对库存控制问题的各基础模型进行筛选,确定出LNG接收站的库存控制问题属于确定性非均匀需求库存问题。在此基础上,对LNG接收的库存管理特点进行了详细调研,提出采用静动不确定策略建立LNG接收站的库存控制模型。确定了模型的建立方法后,首先采用灰色预测中的GM(1,1)模型对LNG接收站的下游市场需求进行预测,计算出LNG接收站的最大、最小以及安全库存水平。然后根据LNG接收站的库存管理特点制定出接收站的库存控制策略。在此基础上,对基于静动不确定策略的确定性非均匀需求库存控制模型进行调整,针对LNG的三种运输方式分别建立各自的库存控制模型,在保证接收站正常运营的前提下,使LNG供应链的年期望总成本最低。最后,以W-W算法对模型进行求解,确定出LNG接收站的最优船型、最优订货量及最优到货时间点,制定年度最优订货计划。针对基于静动不确定策略建立的LNG接收站库存控制模型在接收站的部分需求实现后不能保证原订货计划的最优性的缺点,建立了基于滚动计划的LNG接收站库存控制模型。在部分需求实现后以接收站的实际库存量更新原预测值,对需求未实现部分的库存量进行重新预测,从而判断接收站在需求未实现的时间段内是否会出现超货或缺货,如果出现,确定其出现的时间点、超货量及缺货量,制定相应的增加LNG现货贸易或增加LNG槽车装车量的滚动计划,保证接收站的安全运营。最后,运用Visual Basic6.0语言编制了LNG接收站库存管理与控制程序,采用编制的程序对渤海某LNG接收站进行了实例计算,计算结果表明,该程序有较高的可靠性和实用价值。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of China's economy, natural gas demand will grow rapidly, but China's conventional natural gas resources are limited, need a large number of imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to make up the gap between supply and demand of natural gas, therefore, the construction of LNG receiving station is booming.LNG receiving station as a transit station from the LNG supply chain, the role of discharge amount, only LNG, the tank can discharge quantity and the LNG of the ship, in order to ensure the normal work of the receiving station, receiving station to avoid out of stock or super cargo. This requires us to manage and control the receiving station inventory LNG from the perspective of the supply chain. However, China is still in the initial stage of LNG receiving station, there is no research on the LNG receiving station inventory from the perspective of the supply chain. Therefore, the LNG from the perspective of supply chain, the inventory management and control methods of logistics inventory system to The inventory control problem of LNG receiving station is studied.
The first investigation of the inventory management and control of the basic theory of logistics system, the basic model of inventory control problems were selected to determine LNG receiving station inventory control problem belongs to the non deterministic uniform inventory problem. On this basis, the LNG inventory management features of receiving a detailed investigation, the static dynamic uncertainty strategy of the establishment of LNG receiving station inventory control model.
The model building method, firstly uses the grey prediction GM (1,1) model to forecast the LNG receiving station downstream market demand, calculate the maximum LNG receiving station, and the minimum level of safety stock. Then according to the characteristics of LNG inventory management station to develop inventory control strategy on the receiving station. On the basis of the static dynamic uncertainty determination strategy non uniform demand inventory control model is adjusted based on the three modes of transport LNG sets of inventory control model, to ensure the normal operation of the premise of receiving station, the LNG supply chain total cost expected minimum. Finally, to solve the model W-W algorithm to determine the optimal ship type LNG receiving station, the optimal order quantity and optimal delivery time, the formulation of the annual optimal order plan.
According to the static dynamic uncertainty method to establish the LNG receiving station cannot guarantee an optimal inventory control model of the shortcomings of the original plan in order to achieve part of the demand receiving station based on the established rolling plan of LNG receiving station inventory control model based on the updated values of the original forecast actual inventory in the part of the demand after the realization to receive the station. To forecast the demand did not achieve the inventory of parts, so as to judge whether the receiving station in the time period needs unrealized appear super goods or out of stock, if present, determine the time point of its appearance, super volume and shortage, making a corresponding increase in LNG spot trade or increase the rolling plan of LNG tanker loading and ensure the safe operation of the receiving station.
Finally, the inventory management and control program of LNG receiving station is compiled by using Visual Basic6.0 language. The example of a LNG receiving station in Bohai is calculated by the compiled program, and the calculation results show that the program has high reliability and practical value.

【学位授予单位】：西南石油大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TE82

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