基于复杂性理论对供应链牛鞭效应的研究

发布时间：2018-05-31 11:26

本文选题：复杂性 + 牛鞭效应　；参考：《北京交通大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：摘要：随着供应链结构的日趋复杂,供应链主体间的交互行为也日趋增多。而供应链的复杂性会导致系统中不确定性的增加。牛鞭效应正是供应链中一类典型的由不确定性因素所导致的复杂现象。牛鞭效应会误导生产计划、导致过多的库存投资、造成无效运输、降低服务水平等,从而导致供应链上巨大的效率损失。牛鞭效应是供应链系统结构和运营中最为重要的性能指标和绩效指标,从系统理论上总体考虑和研究牛鞭效应的成因、量化、减弱和控制是解决牛鞭效应比较紧迫的课题。因此,本文在对牛鞭效应现有研究进行归纳总结的基础上,从复杂性角度对牛鞭效应展开了探讨。本文的研究目标是,以牛鞭效应为研究对象,以复杂性理论为研究平台,从复杂系统的特征入手分析牛鞭效应的成因,将复杂系统的复杂性度量方法-信息熵引入到对供应链牛鞭效应的度量,最后针对牛鞭效应的复杂性成因提出对应的削弱对策与建议,为企业供应链信息流的控制管理提供参考。本文的主要成果和结论在于：首先,对供应链系统的复杂性进行了分析,基于其复杂性特征发现了牛鞭效应的生成背后存在一系列复杂性的诱因,需求的不确定性、供需主体的多变性、供应链博弈的多样性、供应链结构的多层性以及时间延迟的非线性等五大复杂性因素共同导致了牛鞭效应的生成；第二,基于熵在复杂系统复杂性度量中的应用,本文逐步推导出了供应链系统二元模型到多元模型的复杂性熵度量公式,之后针对供应链链状模型(牛鞭效应模型),提出了系统节点复杂度概念,以此来度量供应链中各节点企业的牛鞭效应大小,即用系统节点熵(复杂度)来度量各节点企业对整个供应链系统牛鞭效应的波动贡献量,并结合实例进行了分析,与传统牛鞭效应的度量方法进行了对比。最后结合牛鞭效应的复杂性成因给出了对应的治理建议：减少需求的不确定性、建立企业长效合作机制、避免主体间博弈行为、重构供应链结构以及缩短订货交货周期。
[Abstract]:Abstract: with the increasing complexity of the supply chain structure, the interaction between the main supply chains is increasing. The complexity of the supply chain will lead to the increase of uncertainty in the system. The bullwhip effect is a typical complex phenomenon caused by uncertainty in the supply chain. The bullwhip effect will lead to misleading the production plan and lead to excessive production. Inventory investment, resulting in ineffective transportation, reducing service level, and so on, leads to huge efficiency losses in the supply chain. The bullwhip effect is the most important performance index and performance index in the supply chain system structure and operation. From the system theory, the cause of the bullwhip effect is considered and studied. Quantification, attenuation and control are the solutions to the bullwhip effect ratio. A more urgent subject.
Therefore, based on the summary of the current research on the bullwhip effect, the bullwhip effect is discussed from the perspective of complexity. The aim of this paper is to take the bullwhip effect as the research object and the complexity theory as the research platform. The cause of the bullwhip effect is analyzed from the characteristics of the complex system, and the complexity of the complex system is analyzed. The measurement method - information entropy is introduced to the measurement of the bullwhip effect in supply chain. Finally, the corresponding weakening countermeasures and suggestions are put forward for the complexity cause of the bullwhip effect, which will provide reference for the control and management of the supply chain information flow in the enterprise.
The main results and conclusions of this paper are as follows: first, the complexity of the supply chain system is analyzed. Based on its complexity, it is found that there is a series of complex causes behind the production of the bullwhip effect, the uncertainty of the demand, the variability of the main body of supply and demand, the diversity of the game of the supply chain, the multilayer of the supply chain structure and the time. Five complex factors such as the nonlinear delay between the two factors lead to the formation of the bullwhip effect. Second, based on the application of entropy in complexity measurement of complex systems, this paper gradually derives the complexity entropy measurement formula of the supply chain system from two to the multivariate model, and then proposes the chain model of the supply chain (the bullwhip effect model). The concept of system node complexity is used to measure the size of the bullwhip effect of each node in the supply chain, that is to measure the fluctuation contribution of each node enterprise to the whole supply chain bullwhip effect by the system node entropy (complexity). The complexity of the bullwhip effect gives the corresponding governance suggestions: reducing the uncertainty of demand, establishing a long-term cooperative mechanism for enterprises, avoiding inter subjective game behavior, reconstructing the supply chain structure and shortening the order and delivery cycle.
【学位授予单位】：北京交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F274;F224.32

【参考文献】