驾驶舱人因可靠性分析模型研究

发布时间：2018-04-26 21:08

本文选题：驾驶舱 + 人为差错　；参考：《中国民航大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：事故统计表明,驾驶舱人为差错是导致民机飞行事故发生的主要诱因,占到事故原因的60%以上。驾驶舱内机组人员的正确操作是民航飞机安全运行的重要保障,提高机组操作可靠性可以进一步减少驾驶舱操作过程中发生的人为差错。本文从驾驶舱机组人员操作的认知可靠性入手,对民用飞机驾驶舱人因可靠性展开了系统研究。本文在对比分析了国内外人因可靠性分析模型之后,结合机组人员在操作过程中具体的认知行为,对机组成员操作表现出来的认知失效模式及其成因进行研究分析,运用G1-DEMATEL改进权重计算方法,对各个认知失效模式测评指标权重进行了修正计算。在对机组人员进行认知可靠性分析和操作行为模式分析的基础之上,建立起了机组人员的感觉识别、知觉意识、决策、执行动作(sensation、perception、decision plan and action,SPDA)认知可靠性分析模型。对SPDA分析模型中表现影响因子(PIFs)开展分析,归纳出了影响机组操作可靠性的影响因素,利用德尔菲分析方法筛选出了符合工程运用实际的影响机组操作可靠性的39个表现影响因子。结合PIFs对驾驶舱操作过程的共同绩效条件(CPC)完成修正处理,进而确定SPDA模型中认知操作事件序列的总权重因子。最终依据机组操作人员在操作事件中的基本失效概率和总权重因子确定操作任务的可靠性,从而实现了操作事件序列人误发生概率的量化。本文最后给出了具体的应用实例,展示了运用SPDA模型分析民机驾驶舱机组操作可靠性的具体步骤和计算过程。以某航空公司驾驶舱机组三名操作人员对一架B737-800执行手柄卡位操作工程指令(B737.GZ.99121R2“操作襟翼操纵手柄挡位1至挡位3的变动”)为例对SPDA模型进行了具体应用验证。鉴于机组成员操作驾驶舱系统具有较大的复杂性,需要对模型不断的进行完善,以期为驾驶舱内人为操作错误的管理提供指导思路和方法。
[Abstract]:The accident statistics show that the human error in the cockpit is the main cause of the civil aircraft flight accident, accounting for more than 60% of the accident reasons. The correct operation of the crew in the cockpit is an important guarantee for the safe operation of the civil aviation aircraft. Improving the reliability of the crew operation can further reduce the human error in the cockpit operation process. Based on the cognitive reliability of cockpit crew operation, this paper makes a systematic study on the human reliability of civil aircraft cockpit. After comparing and analyzing the domestic and foreign human factor reliability analysis models, combined with the specific cognitive behavior of the crew members in the operation process, the cognitive failure mode and its causes of crew members' operation are studied and analyzed in this paper. The weight of each cognitive failure model is modified by using the improved weight calculation method of G1-DEMATEL. On the basis of cognitive reliability analysis and operational behavior model analysis of the crew, a cognitive reliability analysis model was established for the crew members, such as sensory identification, perceptual awareness, decision making, and execution of sensationalization decision plan and / SPDAs. Based on the analysis of the performance influencing factors in the SPDA analysis model, the influencing factors affecting the operating reliability of the units are summarized. By using Delphi analysis method, 39 performance influencing factors which are in accordance with the engineering practice affecting the operating reliability of the unit are screened out. Combined with PIFs, the common performance condition of cockpit operation process is modified, and then the total weight factor of cognitive operation event sequence in SPDA model is determined. Finally, the reliability of the operation task is determined according to the basic failure probability and the total weight factor of the operator in the operation event, and the quantization of the human error probability of the operation event sequence is realized. At the end of this paper, a concrete application example is given, and the concrete steps and calculation process of using SPDA model to analyze the operating reliability of the civil aircraft cockpit unit are shown. Taking the three operators of the cockpit crew of a certain airline to execute the handle operation engineering instruction B737.GZ.99121R2 on a B737-800, the SPDA model is verified by the example of "the change of operating flap handling handle from 1 to 3"). In view of the complexity of the crew operating cockpit system, it is necessary to improve the model continuously in order to provide guidance and method for the management of human error in the cockpit.
【学位授予单位】：中国民航大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：V223.1

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