美联储加息的外溢效应与中国对策——基于DSGE模型的分析

发布时间：2018-06-24 08:26

本文选题：利率平价 + 汇率贬值　；参考：《贵州财经大学学报》2017年02期

【摘要】：构建一个含名义与实际刚性、带金融加速器的开放经济模型,研究美联储加息对中国经济的外溢效应及中国的应对之策。通过贝叶斯估计与数值模拟发现:美联储加息后国内利率将呈"驼峰"状上升,汇率即期大幅贬值,远期小幅升值。汇率贬值使进口需求锐减,出口需求骤增,国内通胀高企。实际利率上升使居民消费产生跨期替代,国内消费持续低迷;企业外部融资成本上升,由于金融加速器效应,国内投资锐减。因此,美联储加息使国内总需求降低,出口需求增加,净产出增加,同时出现一定程度的通货膨胀。进一步的福利绩效分析表明,若货币当局实行单一最优货币规则可有效提高社会福利。基于此,提出货币政策调控与汇率制度改革的相关政策建议。
[Abstract]:An open economic model with nominal and actual rigidity and a financial accelerator is built to study the spillover effect of the Fed's increase on China's economy and China's countermeasures. The rate of depreciation has led to a sharp decline in import demand, a sharp increase in export demand and high domestic inflation. The rise in real interest rates has led to a cross term substitution for residents' consumption, a sustained downturn in domestic consumption, rising external financing costs and a sharp reduction in domestic investment due to the financial accelerator effect. Therefore, the Fed has raised interest rates to reduce domestic demand, increase export demand, net output. At the same time, there is a certain degree of inflation. Further analysis of welfare performance shows that if the monetary authorities implement a single optimal monetary rule, the social welfare can be improved effectively. Based on this, the relevant policy suggestions for monetary policy regulation and exchange rate system reform are put forward.
【作者单位】：华东师范大学经济学院;上海立信会计金融学院金融学院;
【基金】：上海市哲学社会科学规划项目“金融化行为、经济波动及其分配效应:基于异质性多主体EGT-DSGE模型的实证研究”(2015EJB003)
【分类号】：F827.12;F822.0;F832.6

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