汇率预测及其对工商银行财务绩效影响研究
发布时间：2018-10-19 11:55
【摘要】：本文的研究目的是研究预测汇率的方法并且评估它们对中国工商银行(ICBC)财务业绩的影响,为实际应用选择方法和工具。汇率的确认在长期的金融市场的课题研究中一直是热门话题,不但提出了许多相反的观点,也提出了在他们的研究中用到的各种各样的方法。当然,现阶段货币市场的研究领域有很大的相关性,我们都知道汇率会影响到各个方面:国家、公司和我们每一个人。所以让我们仔细看看汇率对一个大公司的影响。我们选择了中国工商银行。2015年,中国工商银行(ICBC)已经连续三年在福布斯全球2000强上市公司的排名中居于首位。本文是为了了解预测汇率的可能性在根本上是否存在的一个尝试,以及使用获得的结果改善特定公司的财务业绩的可能性。本研究的重要性可以通过一下几个具体原因来体现:首先,本研究着眼于一个最神秘而有趣的世界货币——人民币。世界上大量的个人和企业使用人民币进行汇率计算,并且更多的人对人民币汇率的调控十分感兴趣。有很多传言说中国银行专门降低汇率以保持经济和国际贸易的稳定。其次是已得到的研究结果的实际应用。因此,本文不仅结合了理论依据和大量研究结论,还结合了对银行的财务、管理和管控文件的实际研究和分析以及人民币的汇率与某些外国货币的对比。第三,这项研究得到的或积极或消极的结果都可以成为未来相关工作的一个起点。所有方面和参数的详细研究,关于研究进展、目标和取得的成果的理解和有效信息都是允许访问获取的。这项研究有两个主要目的:利用预测方法分析汇率,并开发出汇率预测的应用程序方法,以改善工行的财务业绩。为了成功地实现这一目标提出了以下需要解决的主要任务:考虑汇率的理论基础以及他们的预测方法;研究中国货币市场的特殊性以及人民币汇率影响因素;对进行中国工商银行的金融单据进行财务和经济分析;运用技术分析,基本分析和统计分析的方法,结合计算机软件的使用对汇率进行预测和分析;在对汇率预测的基础上制定方法以提高工商银行的财务业绩。有自我调控的可能。如果在任一阶段的汇率预测值与实际值相违背,将对可能的错误进行额外分析。这项研究的范围是两大主题。第一个主题涉及汇率及其预测。首先是选择会对银行的财务业绩产生影响的货币组合。基于我们的研究目的选择了三种货币组合:美元对人民币,欧元对人民币和欧元对美元。下一步是选择影响人民币和其他货币的因素。影响因素的选择是在2015——2017年间货币情况的可追溯分析的基础上进行的。第二个主题可以归因于工商银行的财务和管理活动,它的战略和公司原则,产品和服务。计划对公司2014——2016年的三年期间的财务报表进行分析。由此可以得出我们的全部研究计划。在论文的第一章对研究的目标和任务进行了思考,确立了研究的意义和范围,阅读学习了国内外相关研究文献,分析了国外和俄罗斯学者的研究方法。第二章详细研究了中国工商银行的基本信息,如银行的历史、治理结构、文化与战略、产品与服务以及财务信息。甚至还研究了汇率的理论基础、分类和特点,包括对人民币汇率的特殊性给予了更多的关注。然后详细研究了货币市场的整体预测方法。第三章对银行的财务报表进行了全面的财务分析,包括纵向分析、纵向横向分析、横向分析和财务比率分析。财务分析师根据2014——2016年的资产负债表和利润表的数据进行的。计算了在外汇市场的操作对银行收入和利润的影响,并讨论了汇率预测能力对企业来说的利弊。考虑了基本分析、技术分析和统计分析等预测货币汇率的方法在实践中的应用。基本分析的目的在于从宏观经济、政治和自然灾害三个方面分析国内外不同事件之间的关系。宏观经济指标包括GDP、利率、通货膨胀、贸易平衡数据和失业率。政治因素通常认为是总统选举,国家元首会议,G20峰会,以及中国人民银行的政策。技术分析主要是基于对汇率的图表特征的研究,在此选择了两种货币组合:美元对人民币和欧元对美元。欧元对人民币没有选择,是因为其外汇市场发展不足,并且经理人的代表性有限。研究了这类技术分析方法在实践中的应用主要包括图形化方法、通道法、循环法、层次法和基于特殊指标和振荡器的方法等。对外汇汇率的统计分析的核心是寻找到选定汇率与其他货币汇率之间的相关性,或宏观经济指标,或自然资源价格或其他可以用数字形式表示的过程。由此选择并考虑了与货币对相关的主要指标:美元对美元和欧元对美元。计算相关系数,建立散点图并分析得到的数据。此外,还建立了基于特殊计算机程序使用的方法的前提条件。目前,这一研究方法涉及使用自学计算机技术,如神经网络。因此,程序在生成某些决策和结果的基础上制定了特定的算法和模式。所有的分析都是在2015年至今这一时间段的数据计算出的所有用来预测汇率的方法对中国工商银行财务业绩的影响的基础上进行的。如果我们考虑了基本的三种预测方法,每种预测方法都有其特定的特点。此外,选择三种特定货币对也会导致某些仅与这些货币组合相关联的特定模式。每一种预测方法都显示出某些可能适用于这些汇率的工具。也就是说,利用它们可以使预测高度有效,与现实结果高度一致。最后得出结论汇率预测方法在实际生活中是可能进行实际应用的。但必须记住,预测是一个复杂相互依存的过程,绝不可能100%消除风险,也不可100%对预测完全信任。因此,保持所有主要阶段结合汇率预测的各种方法,就有可能做出最准确的预测,从而利用得到的结果提高中国工商银行的净利润。
[Abstract]:The purpose of this paper is to study the method of forecasting exchange rate and to evaluate their influence on the financial performance of ICBC (ICBC) and select methods and tools for practical application. The confirmation of exchange rate has been a hot topic in the long-term research of financial market, not only put forward many contrary views, but also put forward a variety of methods used in their research. Of course, there is a great deal of relevance in the field of research in the monetary market at this stage, and we all know that exchange rates affect all aspects: countries, companies and each of us. So let's take a closer look at the impact of the exchange rate on a big company. We selected Industrial and Commercial Bank of China. In 2015, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) ranked the first in Forbes Global 2000 listed companies for three consecutive years. This paper is to find out whether there is an attempt to predict the possibility of exchange rate at all, and to improve the financial performance of a particular company using the results obtained. The importance of this study can be embodied by a few specific reasons: first, this study looks at the most mysterious and interesting world currency. Many individuals and businesses in the world use the yuan for exchange rate calculations, and more people are interested in the regulation of the yuan's exchange rate. There are many rumors that the Bank of China has a special interest in lowering the exchange rate to keep the economy and international trade stable. The second is the actual application of the results obtained. Therefore, this paper not only combines the theoretical basis and a lot of research conclusions, but also combines the actual research and analysis of the bank's financial, management and control documents, as well as the comparison between the exchange rate of the RMB and some foreign currencies. Third, either positive or negative results of the study could be a starting point for future work. Detailed studies on all aspects and parameters, understanding and effective information on progress, objectives and results achieved are accessible. The study has two main purposes: to analyze the exchange rate using the forecasting method and develop an application method for exchange rate forecasting to improve the financial performance of ICBC. In order to achieve this goal, the following main tasks need to be solved: the theoretical foundation of exchange rate and their forecasting methods; carrying out financial and economic analysis on the financial documents of ICBC; using the technical analysis, the basic analysis and the statistical analysis method to forecast and analyze the exchange rate in combination with the use of computer software; Develop a methodology on the basis of exchange rate forecasts to improve the financial performance of the ECB. There is a possibility of self-regulation. If the exchange rate prediction value at any stage is in violation of the actual value, additional analysis of possible errors will be made. The scope of the study is two major themes. The first topic relates to exchange rates and their projections. First is the monetary combination of choices that would have an impact on the financial performance of the bank. Based on our research, we chose three currencies: the US dollar against the renminbi and the euro against the yuan and the euro. The next step is to choose factors that affect the currency and other currencies. The choice of influencing factors is based on the traceability analysis of the currency situation between 2015 and 2017. The second theme could be attributed to the financial and management activities of the Government, its strategy and corporate principles, products and services. The plan will analyze the financial statements of the Company for the three-year period 2014 _ 2016. So we can get all our research plans. In the first chapter of the thesis, we think about the objectives and tasks of the research, establish the meaning and scope of the research, read the relevant research literature at home and abroad, and analyze the research methods of foreign and Russian scholars. The second chapter studies the basic information of ICBC, such as bank history, governance structure, culture and strategy, product and service as well as financial information. It also studies the theoretical basis, classification and characteristics of exchange rate, including more attention to the particularity of RMB exchange rate. Then the overall forecasting method of money market is studied in detail. The third chapter carries out a comprehensive financial analysis on the financial statements of the bank, including the longitudinal analysis, the vertical lateral analysis, the horizontal analysis and the financial ratio analysis. Financial analysts are based on data from the balance sheet and profit statement for 2014 _ 2016. The influence of operation on bank income and profit in foreign exchange market is calculated, and the advantages and disadvantages of exchange rate forecasting ability are discussed. Considering the basic analysis, technical analysis and statistical analysis and so on, the method of forecasting monetary exchange rate is applied in practice. The purpose of the basic analysis is to analyze the relationship between different events at home and abroad from the aspects of macroeconomics, politics and natural disasters. Macroeconomic indicators include GDP, interest rates, inflation, trade balance data and unemployment. Political factors are often seen as presidential elections, heads of state meetings, G20 summits and policies of the People's Bank of China. Technical analysis is based primarily on the study of the chart characteristics of exchange rates, where two currencies are selected: the dollar is against the yuan and the euro. The euro has no choice for the renminbi because its foreign exchange market is underdeveloped and the representation of managers is limited. The application of this method in practice mainly includes graphical method, channel method, cyclic method, hierarchical method and special index and oscillator based method. The core of the statistical analysis of the exchange rate is to find a correlation between the selected exchange rate and other monetary exchange rates, or macroeconomic indicators, or natural resource prices or other processes that can be expressed in digital form. The main index related to the currency pair was therefore selected and considered: the dollar against the United States dollar and the euro against the United States dollar. calculating the correlation coefficient, establishing the correlation coefficient and analyzing the obtained data. In addition, a prerequisite for a method based on the use of a special computer program is also established. At present, this approach involves the use of self-taught computer technology, such as a neural network. Thus, the program has developed specific algorithms and patterns on the basis of generating certain decisions and results. All analyses were carried out on the basis of the impact of the method of predicting exchange rates on the financial performance of the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China by 2015 to date. If we consider the basic three kinds of forecasting methods, each forecasting method has its specific characteristics. In addition, the selection of three specific currency pairs may also result in certain patterns associated with only these monetary combinations. Each forecasting method shows some tools that might apply to these rates. That is, using them can make the prediction highly effective and highly consistent with the actual results. Finally, it is concluded that the exchange rate forecasting method may be practically applied in real life. It must be borne in mind, however, that forecasting is a complex and interdependent process, by which no 100% risk is eliminated or 100% is fully trusted. Therefore, it is possible to make the most accurate prediction when maintaining all the main stages in combination with exchange rate forecasting, thus improving the net profit of ICBC by using the obtained results.
【学位授予单位】：哈尔滨工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F832.6;F832.33;F830.42
[Abstract]:The purpose of this paper is to study the method of forecasting exchange rate and to evaluate their influence on the financial performance of ICBC (ICBC) and select methods and tools for practical application. The confirmation of exchange rate has been a hot topic in the long-term research of financial market, not only put forward many contrary views, but also put forward a variety of methods used in their research. Of course, there is a great deal of relevance in the field of research in the monetary market at this stage, and we all know that exchange rates affect all aspects: countries, companies and each of us. So let's take a closer look at the impact of the exchange rate on a big company. We selected Industrial and Commercial Bank of China. In 2015, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) ranked the first in Forbes Global 2000 listed companies for three consecutive years. This paper is to find out whether there is an attempt to predict the possibility of exchange rate at all, and to improve the financial performance of a particular company using the results obtained. The importance of this study can be embodied by a few specific reasons: first, this study looks at the most mysterious and interesting world currency. Many individuals and businesses in the world use the yuan for exchange rate calculations, and more people are interested in the regulation of the yuan's exchange rate. There are many rumors that the Bank of China has a special interest in lowering the exchange rate to keep the economy and international trade stable. The second is the actual application of the results obtained. Therefore, this paper not only combines the theoretical basis and a lot of research conclusions, but also combines the actual research and analysis of the bank's financial, management and control documents, as well as the comparison between the exchange rate of the RMB and some foreign currencies. Third, either positive or negative results of the study could be a starting point for future work. Detailed studies on all aspects and parameters, understanding and effective information on progress, objectives and results achieved are accessible. The study has two main purposes: to analyze the exchange rate using the forecasting method and develop an application method for exchange rate forecasting to improve the financial performance of ICBC. In order to achieve this goal, the following main tasks need to be solved: the theoretical foundation of exchange rate and their forecasting methods; carrying out financial and economic analysis on the financial documents of ICBC; using the technical analysis, the basic analysis and the statistical analysis method to forecast and analyze the exchange rate in combination with the use of computer software; Develop a methodology on the basis of exchange rate forecasts to improve the financial performance of the ECB. There is a possibility of self-regulation. If the exchange rate prediction value at any stage is in violation of the actual value, additional analysis of possible errors will be made. The scope of the study is two major themes. The first topic relates to exchange rates and their projections. First is the monetary combination of choices that would have an impact on the financial performance of the bank. Based on our research, we chose three currencies: the US dollar against the renminbi and the euro against the yuan and the euro. The next step is to choose factors that affect the currency and other currencies. The choice of influencing factors is based on the traceability analysis of the currency situation between 2015 and 2017. The second theme could be attributed to the financial and management activities of the Government, its strategy and corporate principles, products and services. The plan will analyze the financial statements of the Company for the three-year period 2014 _ 2016. So we can get all our research plans. In the first chapter of the thesis, we think about the objectives and tasks of the research, establish the meaning and scope of the research, read the relevant research literature at home and abroad, and analyze the research methods of foreign and Russian scholars. The second chapter studies the basic information of ICBC, such as bank history, governance structure, culture and strategy, product and service as well as financial information. It also studies the theoretical basis, classification and characteristics of exchange rate, including more attention to the particularity of RMB exchange rate. Then the overall forecasting method of money market is studied in detail. The third chapter carries out a comprehensive financial analysis on the financial statements of the bank, including the longitudinal analysis, the vertical lateral analysis, the horizontal analysis and the financial ratio analysis. Financial analysts are based on data from the balance sheet and profit statement for 2014 _ 2016. The influence of operation on bank income and profit in foreign exchange market is calculated, and the advantages and disadvantages of exchange rate forecasting ability are discussed. Considering the basic analysis, technical analysis and statistical analysis and so on, the method of forecasting monetary exchange rate is applied in practice. The purpose of the basic analysis is to analyze the relationship between different events at home and abroad from the aspects of macroeconomics, politics and natural disasters. Macroeconomic indicators include GDP, interest rates, inflation, trade balance data and unemployment. Political factors are often seen as presidential elections, heads of state meetings, G20 summits and policies of the People's Bank of China. Technical analysis is based primarily on the study of the chart characteristics of exchange rates, where two currencies are selected: the dollar is against the yuan and the euro. The euro has no choice for the renminbi because its foreign exchange market is underdeveloped and the representation of managers is limited. The application of this method in practice mainly includes graphical method, channel method, cyclic method, hierarchical method and special index and oscillator based method. The core of the statistical analysis of the exchange rate is to find a correlation between the selected exchange rate and other monetary exchange rates, or macroeconomic indicators, or natural resource prices or other processes that can be expressed in digital form. The main index related to the currency pair was therefore selected and considered: the dollar against the United States dollar and the euro against the United States dollar. calculating the correlation coefficient, establishing the correlation coefficient and analyzing the obtained data. In addition, a prerequisite for a method based on the use of a special computer program is also established. At present, this approach involves the use of self-taught computer technology, such as a neural network. Thus, the program has developed specific algorithms and patterns on the basis of generating certain decisions and results. All analyses were carried out on the basis of the impact of the method of predicting exchange rates on the financial performance of the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China by 2015 to date. If we consider the basic three kinds of forecasting methods, each forecasting method has its specific characteristics. In addition, the selection of three specific currency pairs may also result in certain patterns associated with only these monetary combinations. Each forecasting method shows some tools that might apply to these rates. That is, using them can make the prediction highly effective and highly consistent with the actual results. Finally, it is concluded that the exchange rate forecasting method may be practically applied in real life. It must be borne in mind, however, that forecasting is a complex and interdependent process, by which no 100% risk is eliminated or 100% is fully trusted. Therefore, it is possible to make the most accurate prediction when maintaining all the main stages in combination with exchange rate forecasting, thus improving the net profit of ICBC by using the obtained results.
【学位授予单位】：哈尔滨工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F832.6;F832.33;F830.42
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