基于PSR模型和系统动力学的城市环境绩效动态评估研究

发布时间：2019-01-23 14:03

【摘要】：根据PSR模型、系统动力学模型和情景仿真模拟,构建了城市环境绩效动态评估模型,定量表达了城市环境绩效的现状水平和动态发展趋势。依据天津市发展特点和资源环境概况,首先基于PSR模型构建了环境绩效评估体系,并将其与系统动力学模型相耦合,通过情景分析模拟评估了惯性情景、优化发展情景、低碳发展情景和绿色发展情景四种城市发展情景的环境绩效水平。结果表明:天津市2009-2013年环境绩效综合指数(EPI)不断上升,但始终处于"较低"等级。在四种情景发展趋势上,低碳发展情景和绿色发展情景的EPI增幅较大,均于2020年提升至"较好"等级,其中绿色发展情景最优(67.6);而优化发展情景、惯性情景EPI增幅较小,2020年处于"一般"等级。可以看出,以中新生态城绿色发展为范式的天津可持续发展模式是高效实现"美丽天津"建设目标的最优路径。
[Abstract]:According to the PSR model, system dynamics model and scenario simulation, the dynamic evaluation model of urban environmental performance is constructed, and the present level and dynamic development trend of urban environmental performance are quantitatively expressed. According to the development characteristics of Tianjin and the general situation of resources and environment, firstly, based on the PSR model, an environmental performance evaluation system is constructed, and coupled with the system dynamics model, the inertia scenario is evaluated by scenario analysis simulation, and the development scenario is optimized. The environmental performance level of four urban development scenarios: low carbon development scenario and green development scenario. The results show that the comprehensive index of environmental performance (EPI) of Tianjin is rising continuously in 2009-2013, but it is always in the lower grade. Among the four scenarios, the EPI of low carbon development scenario and green development scenario increased greatly, and they all increased to "better" level in 2020, among which the green development scenario was the best (67.6). And optimized development scenario, inertia scenario EPI increase is small, 2020 is in "average" grade. It can be seen that the sustainable development model of Tianjin, which takes the green development of Zhongxin ecological city as the paradigm, is the best way to achieve the goal of "beautiful Tianjin".
【作者单位】：南开大学环境科学与工程学院;
【基金】：国家科技支撑计划课题“村镇环境评价与预警平台建设”(2012BAJ24B04)
【分类号】：X821;F299.2;F224

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