基于客户个性化信息的客户终生价值模型及应用研究

发布时间：2018-04-04 03:16

本文选题：客户终生价值　切入点：Pareto/NBD模型　出处：《大连理工大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：近年来,客户终生价值(Customer lifetime Value, CLV)得到越来越广泛的重视,众多学者从不同角度,不同领域对客户终生价值进行了研究,而这些研究的焦点问题主要包括两类,即对客户终生价值模型的研究和客户终生价值的实践应用价值的探索。本文首先整理了客户终生价值的相关研究成果；其次,研究了基于Pareto/NBD模型和Gamma-Gamma模型的客户终生价值模型,发现应用该模型预测客户终生价值时存在的不足和缺点,并找到了导致其效果不佳的根本原因；再次,提出了融入客户个性化信息的CLV改进模型,将RFM模型的三个指标R、F、M值作为个性化信息以调节因子的形式加入到原预测公式中,用于改进原模型的缺点；最后,以大连友好商城的实际销售数据为样本,实证检验了改进后的模型相对于原模型的优越性,并探索分析了该模型对于企业管理实践的指导意义。本研究的价值主要体现在以下两方面：在理论方面,提出了融入客户个性化信息的客户终生价值模型,不但提升了基于Pareto/NBD模型和Gamma-Gamma模型的客户终生价值模型的预测效果,还为客户终生价值模型的未来研究提供了一种新思路,提升了客户终生价值模型的理论价值。在操作方法上,以RFM模型中的客户购买次数、最近购买时间和购买金额作为个性化信息,以每个客户的RFM值作为改进模型的调节因子,改进的方法简便易操作,同样适用于改进其他类似的CLV模型。在管理实践上,本文以改进后的模型的CLV值作为客户细分的依据,从整个客户群中识别出优质客户、劣质客户,并根据各客户群的特点给出相应的营销管理策略,为企业实施差异化的营销管理措施,提升客户关系管理水平提供了宝贵的建议。
[Abstract]:In recent years, customer lifetime value (CLV) has been paid more and more attention. Many scholars have studied customer lifetime value from different angles and fields.That is, the study of customer lifetime value model and the practical application of customer lifetime value exploration.In this paper, firstly, the related research results of customer lifetime value are summarized. Secondly, the customer lifetime value model based on Pareto/NBD model and Gamma-Gamma model is studied, and the shortcomings and shortcomings of using this model to predict customer lifetime value are found.And find out the root cause of its poor effect. Thirdly, this paper puts forward the improved CLV model which integrates the customer's personalized information, and adds the three indexes of RFM model as the personalization information to the original prediction formula in the form of adjustment factor.Finally, taking the actual sales data of Dalian Friendship Mall as a sample, this paper empirically tests the superiority of the improved model compared with the original model, and explores the guiding significance of the model for enterprise management practice.The value of this study is mainly reflected in the following two aspects:In theory, a customer lifetime value model is proposed, which integrates customer personalized information, which not only improves the prediction effect of customer lifetime value model based on Pareto/NBD model and Gamma-Gamma model.It also provides a new idea for the future research of customer lifetime value model and promotes the theoretical value of customer lifetime value model.In operation method, the customer purchase times, recent purchase time and purchase amount in the RFM model are taken as personalized information, and the RFM value of each customer is taken as the adjustment factor of the improved model. The improved method is simple and easy to operate.The same applies to improving other similar CLV models.In the management practice, this paper takes the CLV value of the improved model as the basis of customer segmentation, identifies high quality customers and inferior customers from the whole customer group, and gives the corresponding marketing management strategy according to the characteristics of each customer group.It provides valuable suggestions for enterprises to implement differentiated marketing management measures and improve the level of customer relationship management.
【学位授予单位】：大连理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F274

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