陕西科技投入与经济增长实证研究

发布时间：2018-03-26 14:38

本文选题：科技投入　切入点：经济增长　出处：《西北大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着知识经济时代的到来,人们越来越深刻认识到科技水平代表一国综合实力,科技进步的作用日益显著,而科技投入是科技进步的物质保障和根本前提,是经济发展的后盾支持。因此要想保持经济的持续增长,就必须优化科技投入结构,加大科技投入力度。只有提高科技水平,才能更好地为经济服务,与经济增长之间形成良性循环。科技进步与经济增长的关系问题是宏观技术经济分析的重点,因此,研究经济增长与科技投入之间的相互关系具有非常重要的现实意义,这也是本文研究的出发点。本文依据陕西省1995年至2008年间的相关数据,在科技投入方面,以科技活动经费和RD经费为基础,利用传统测量模型计算二者对经济增长的贡献率,通过数值发现,在近些年经济发展的过程中,科技对经济的贡献越来越占据主导作用；进而结合经济理论,采用动态建模的方法,利用协整检验,格兰杰因果分析检验等现代计量经济学方法,分析科技投入与经济增长之间是否存在长期稳定性。结果表明：科技投入与经济增长之间不仅存在长期稳定的均衡关系,而且两者还存在十分明显的单向因果关系,即：陕西省科技投入的增加或减少会引起陕西省经济的增长或倒退,而经济的增长或倒退不会引起科技投入的增加或减少,由此说明科技投入在经济增长中占有重要地位。最后,结合实证分析结果对陕西省科技投入与经济增长方而存在的问题提出可行性建议,为政府部门的科技投入决策提供了有力的信息依据与合理的政策建议,同时也指出了本文研究中的不足和有待进一步研究的问题。
[Abstract]:With the arrival of the era of knowledge economy, people have realized more and more that the level of science and technology represents the comprehensive strength of a country, and the role of science and technology progress is becoming more and more prominent, and science and technology investment is the material guarantee and fundamental premise of scientific and technological progress. It is the backing of economic development. Therefore, in order to maintain sustained economic growth, we must optimize the structure of investment in science and technology and increase the intensity of investment in science and technology. Only by raising the level of science and technology can we better serve the economy. The relationship between scientific and technological progress and economic growth is the focus of macro-techno-economic analysis, so it is of great practical significance to study the relationship between economic growth and scientific and technological investment. This is also the starting point of this study. Based on the relevant data from 1995 to 2008 in Shaanxi Province, and on the basis of scientific and technological activities and R D funds, this paper calculates the contribution rate of the two to economic growth by using the traditional measurement model, and finds out by numerical value. In the process of economic development in recent years, the contribution of science and technology to the economy has become more and more dominant. Then, combining economic theory, using dynamic modeling method, using cointegration test, Granger causality analysis test and other modern econometric methods, This paper analyzes whether there is a long-term stability between the investment of science and technology and the economic growth. The results show that there is not only a stable equilibrium relationship between the investment of science and technology and economic growth, but also a very obvious one-way causal relationship between them. That is, the increase or decrease of the input of science and technology in Shaanxi Province will cause the economic growth or retrogression of Shaanxi Province, but the growth or regression of the economy will not cause the increase or decrease of the input of science and technology, which shows that the investment of science and technology plays an important role in the economic growth. Finally, based on the results of empirical analysis, the paper puts forward some feasible suggestions on the problems existing in scientific and technological investment and economic growth in Shaanxi Province, which provides a strong information basis and reasonable policy recommendations for government departments to make scientific and technological investment decisions. At the same time, it also points out the shortcomings of this study and the problems to be further studied.
【学位授予单位】：西北大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F224;G322.7;F127

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