基于专利分析的技术成熟度预测方法研究与实现

发布时间：2018-04-14 10:00

本文选题：产品技术成熟度预测 + 专利功能　；参考：《河北工业大学》2011年硕士论文

【摘要】：产品技术成熟度预测可以帮助企业寻找自身差距,有的放矢地提高自己的技术水平,制定科学的产品开发和技术革新战略,寻找创新点。产品技术成熟度是企业制定产品开发和技术革新战略首先要考虑的重要指标,也是进行技术贸易的重要参考尺度,还是某些职能部门进行技术研发立项的重要依据。因此对产品技术成熟度的预测方法的研究是有其必要性的。现存技术成熟度预测方法与模型往往在预测结果的准确性,实际可操作性等方面都存在一些问题。本课题综合分析TRIZ理论及国内外产品技术成熟与预测的方法,针对目前成熟度预测方法存在的不足之处,在研究产品功能与技术生命周期的关系及其支持向量回归机理论的基础上提出了一种成熟度的预测模型。本课题在研究需求对产品技术发展起到决定性作用的基础上,分析论证了产品功能及与技术生命周期的关系;提出了产品功能等级、质量的概念,应用QFD理论中需求、产品功能与产品结构的对应关系实现了对产品功能等级、质量的评价;专利记录了产品技术的发展史,本课题定义专利所改进的功能为专利功能,提出了基于支持向量机的技术成熟度预测模型,综合运用专利数量、专利级别、专利功能级别及专利功能评价值与功能等级期望值的关系四个指标来进行成熟度的预测。通过判断近三年来技术相关领域内的平均水平上的专利功能级别与产品功能平均质量,应用产品技术成熟度预测模型来预测技术的成熟度。最后,通过Visual C#开发环境实现产品技术成熟度预测系统,该系统实现了以上技术成熟度预测模型。在曲线拟合中实现了支持向量机规律理论。并应用该系统对电冰箱的技术成熟度进行了预测,实验表明在可操作性、客观性、准确性等方面都取的了良好的效果。
[Abstract]:Product technology maturity prediction can help enterprises to find their own gap, improve their technical level, formulate scientific product development and technology innovation strategy, and find innovation points.Product technology maturity is an important index for enterprises to make product development and technology innovation strategy, an important reference scale for technology trade, and an important basis for some functional departments to establish technology research and development projects.Therefore, it is necessary to study the prediction method of product technology maturity.Existing technology maturity prediction methods and models often have some problems in the accuracy of prediction results, practical operability and so on.This topic synthetically analyzes TRIZ theory and the domestic and foreign product technology maturity and forecast method, aiming at the deficiency of the present maturity forecasting method,Based on the study of the relationship between product function and technology life cycle and the theory of support vector regression machine, a maturity prediction model is proposed.On the basis of the research that demand plays a decisive role in the development of product technology, the paper analyzes and demonstrates the relationship between product function and technology life cycle, puts forward the concept of product function grade and quality, and applies the requirement in QFD theory.The corresponding relationship between product function and product structure realizes the evaluation of product function grade and quality, the patent records the history of product technology, this subject defines the function improved by patent as patent function.The technology maturity prediction model based on support vector machine (SVM) is proposed to predict the maturity using the four indexes of patent number, patent grade, patent function level and the relationship between the evaluation value of patent function and the expected value of function grade.By judging the average level of patent function and the average quality of product function in the last three years, the technology maturity prediction model is applied to predict the technology maturity.Finally, the product technology maturity prediction system is realized by Visual C # development environment, and the above technology maturity prediction model is realized by the system.The support vector machine theory is realized in curve fitting.The system is used to predict the technical maturity of refrigerator. The experiment results show that the system has a good effect in the aspects of operability, objectivity, accuracy and so on.
【学位授予单位】：河北工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2011
【分类号】：TP311.52;G306

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