中国旅游消费函数实证研究——兼与周文丽、李世平商榷

发布时间：2018-06-26 02:25

本文选题：旅游 + 消费函数　；参考：《旅游学刊》2014年03期

【摘要】：消费函数是决定消费行为的函数,即消费与其决定因素之间的关系的数学描述。近年来,很多学者运用现代经济学理论对中国消费函数进行了大量研究。然而,却少有针对旅游消费函数的研究。周文丽和李世平以凯恩斯的绝对收入假说为支撑,应用计量经济学方法构建我国的旅游消费函数模型,对我国城乡居民国内旅游消费与收入之间的数量关系进行较为深入的对比分析。但是,周文在实证检验的过程中误用了E-G两步法的临界值,得出的结论不能使人信服。对此,文章使用1994~2010年的年度数据重新进行了实证检验,结果表明:(1)中国居民旅游消费和当期收入之间不存在长期协整关系,基于绝对收入假说构建的旅游消费函数不能解释中国居民的旅游消费行为。(2)农村居民的国内旅游消费行为通过了持久收入假说、合理预期的动态消费函数以及滞后调整的动态消费函数的实证检验,而这些消费模型的内在一致性说明,农村居民的旅游消费决策是由其持久收入决定,由于医疗、教育、养老等问题无法得到妥善解决,使得农村居民的实际收入和预期收入水平下降,从而导致其旅游消费偏低。(3)城镇居民的国内旅游消费行为无法满足西方经典消费函数模型,一个原因在于旅游消费行为依靠闲暇时间,而城镇居民的闲暇时间受到严格的制度约束,在带薪休假制度无法有效实施的前提下,更多依靠公共假期。文章将闲暇时间这一变量纳入旅游消费模型,发现闲暇时间的增加有助于城镇居民国内旅游消费的提高。在这些结论的基础上,文章提出了进一步研究的方向。
[Abstract]:Consumption function is a function that determines consumption behavior, that is, a mathematical description of the relationship between consumption and its determinants. In recent years, many scholars have used modern economic theory to study the consumption function in China. However, there is little research on tourism consumption function. Supported by Keynes' absolute income hypothesis, Zhou Wenli and Li Siping used econometric methods to construct the tourism consumption function model in China. The quantitative relationship between domestic tourism consumption and income of urban and rural residents in China is compared and analyzed. However, Zhou Wen misuses the critical value of E-G two-step method in the process of empirical test, and the conclusion is not convincing. This paper uses the annual data from 1994-2010 to make a new empirical test. The results show that: (1) there is no long-term cointegration relationship between tourism consumption and current income in China. The tourism consumption function based on the absolute income hypothesis can not explain the tourism consumption behavior of Chinese residents. (2) the domestic tourism consumption behavior of rural residents has adopted the long-lasting income hypothesis. The empirical test of reasonably expected dynamic consumption function and delayed adjustment dynamic consumption function, and the inherent consistency of these consumption models shows that the tourism consumption decision of rural residents is determined by their lasting income, due to medical treatment, education, Problems such as pension can not be properly solved, which makes the real income and expected income level of rural residents decrease, which leads to low tourism consumption. (3) the domestic tourism consumption behavior of urban residents can not meet the western classical consumption function model. One reason is that the behavior of tourism consumption depends on leisure time, while the leisure time of urban residents is restricted by strict system. Under the premise that paid vacation system can not be implemented effectively, it relies more on public holidays. This paper introduces leisure time as a variable into the tourism consumption model and finds that the increase of leisure time is helpful to improve the domestic tourism consumption of urban residents. On the basis of these conclusions, the paper puts forward the direction of further research.
【作者单位】：北京联合大学旅游学院;
【基金】：北京联合大学人才强校计划人才资助项目(BPHR2012E03)资助~~
【分类号】：F592;F224

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