基于情景分析的西北农村社会

发布时间：2017-03-11 17:26

  本文关键词：基于集对分析的旅游城市经济系统脆弱性评价——以舟山市为例，由笔耕文化传播整理发布。

[1] <mixed-citation publication-type="journal"><name>O’Brien <given-names>K,<name>Eriksen <given-names>S,<name>Schjolden <given-names>A,<etal>et al. What’s in a word? Conflicting interpretations of vulnerability in climate change research[R].Oslo: CICERO Working Paper, <year>2004.

[2] <mixed-citation publication-type="journal"><name>Fussel H <given-names>M.Vulnerability:A generally applicable conceptual framework for climate change research[J]. Global Environmental Change, <year>2007, <volume>17(2):<fpage>155-<lpage>167.

The term 鈥榲ulnerability鈥 is used in many different ways by various scholarly communities. The resulting disagreement about the appropriate definition of vulnerability is a frequent cause for misunderstanding in interdisciplinary research on climate change and a challenge for attempts to develop formal models of vulnerability. Earlier attempts at reconciling the various conceptualizations of vulnerability were, at best, partly successful. This paper presents a generally applicable conceptual framework of vulnerability that combines a nomenclature of vulnerable situations and a terminology of vulnerability concepts based on the distinction of four fundamental groups of vulnerability factors. This conceptual framework is applied to characterize the vulnerability concepts employed by the main schools of vulnerability research and to review earlier attempts at classifying vulnerability concepts. None of these one-dimensional classification schemes reflects the diversity of vulnerability concepts identified in this review. The wide range of policy responses available to address the risks from global climate change suggests that climate impact, vulnerability, and adaptation assessments will continue to apply a variety of vulnerability concepts. The framework presented here provides the much-needed conceptual clarity and facilitates bridging the various approaches to researching vulnerability to climate change.

DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2006.05.002     

[3] <mixed-citation publication-type="journal"><name>Gallopín G <given-names>C.Linkages between vulnerability, resilience, and adaptive capacity[J]. Global Environmental Change, <year>2006, <volume>16(3): <fpage>293-<lpage>303.

This article uses a systemic perspective to identify and analyze the conceptual relations among vulnerability, resilience, and adaptive capacity within socio-ecological systems (SES). Since different intellectual traditions use the terms in different, sometimes incompatible, ways, they emerge as strongly related but unclear in the precise nature of their relationships. A set of diagnostic questions is proposed regarding the specification of the terms to develop a shared conceptual framework for the natural and social dimensions of global change. Also, development of a general theory of change in SESs is suggested as an important agenda item for research on global change.

DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2006.02.004     

[4] <mixed-citation publication-type="journal"><name>Bohlen H <given-names>G.Vulnerability and criticality: Perspectives from social geography[R]. IHDP Update <volume>2/01, <fpage>2001. [5] <mixed-citation publication-type="journal"><name>Turner B L <given-names>II,<name>Roger <given-names>E,Kasperson, <etal>et al.A Framework for Vulnerability Analysis in Sustainability Science[J].Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, <year>2003, <volume>100(14):<fpage>8074-<lpage>8079.

Abstract Global environmental change and sustainability science increasingly recognize the need to address the consequences of changes taking place in the structure and function of the biosphere. These changes raise questions such as: Who and what are vulnerable to the multiple environmental changes underway, and where? Research demonstrates that vulnerability is registered not by exposure to hazards (perturbations and stresses) alone but also resides in the sensitivity and resilience of the system experiencing such hazards. This recognition requires revisions and enlargements in the basic design of vulnerability assessments, including the capacity to treat coupled human-environment systems and those linkages within and without the systems that affect their vulnerability. A vulnerability framework for the assessment of coupled human-environment systems is presented.

DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1231335100      PMID: 12792023     

[6] <mixed-citation publication-type="journal"><name>Cutter S <given-names>L.The vulnerability of science and the science of vulnerability[J]. Annals of the Association of American Geographers, <year>2003,<volume>93(1):<fpage>1-<lpage>12.

The events of September 11th shocked the nation and painfully illustrated our vulnerability to international terrorist attacks. Despite some of the most sophisticated models, monitoring systems, and science in the world, officials were unable to anticipate and predict these cascading events. The collective scientific ability to geographically represent environmental threats, map exposures, and map consequences is relatively straightforward when the threats are recognized. But what happens when we cannot recognize threats or some of their unintended consequences? This article examines the twin issues of the inadequacies in our current modes of understanding (the vulnerability of science) and the need for more integrative approaches in understanding and responding to environmental hazards (vulnerability science).

DOI: 10.1111/1467-8306.93101     

[7] <mixed-citation publication-type="journal"><name>Turner II B <given-names>L, <name>Matson P <given-names>A, <name>McCarthy J <given-names>J,<etal>et al. Illustrating the coupled human-environment system for vulnerability analysis :Three case studies[J]. PNAS, <year>2003,<volume>100(14):<fpage>8080-<lpage>8085 .

The vulnerability framework of the Research and Assessment Systems for Sustainability Program explicitly recognizes the coupled human-environment system and accounts for interactions in the coupling affecting the system's responses to hazards and its vulnerability. This paper illustrates the usefulness of the vulnerability framework through three case studies: the tropical southern Yucat谩n, the arid Yaqui Valley of northwest Mexico, and the pan-Arctic. Together, these examples illustrate the role of external forces in reshaping the systems in question and their vulnerability to environmental hazards, as well as the different capacities of stakeholders, based on their access to social and biophysical capital, to respond to the changes and hazards. The framework proves useful in directing attention to the interacting parts of the coupled system and helps identify gaps in information and understanding relevant to reducing vulnerability in the systems as a whole.

DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1231334100      PMID: 12815106     

[8] <mixed-citation publication-type="journal"><name>Lures A <given-names>L,<name>Lobell D <given-names>B,<name>Sklar L <given-names>S,<etal>et al.A method for quantifying vulnerability, applied to the agricultural system of Yaqui Valley, Mexico[J]. Global Environmental Change, <year>2003,<volume>13(4): <fpage>255-<lpage>267.

We propose measuring vulnerability of selected outcome variables of concern (e.g. agricultural yield) to identified stressors (e.g. climate change) as a function of the state of the variables of concern relative to a threshold of damage, the sensitivity of the variables to the stressors, and the magnitude and frequency of the stressors to which the system is exposed. In addition, we provide a framework for assessing the extent adaptive capacity can reduce vulnerable conditions. We illustrate the utility of this approach by evaluating the vulnerability of wheat yields to climate change and market fluctuations in the Yaqui Valley, Mexico.

DOI: 10.1016/S0959-3780(03)00054-2     

[9] <mixed-citation publication-type="journal"><name>Hallie <given-names>C.Eakin·Mónica B. Wehbe. Linking local vulnerability to system sustainability in a resilience Framework: two cases from Latin America[J]. Climatic Change, <year>2009, (93): <fpage>355-<lpage>377.

Collectively, individual adjustments to environmental and economic change can have disproportionate influence on the sustainability of the broader social–environmental system in which exposure takes place. Here we focus on the specific mechanisms by which farm-level responses to globalization and environmental change feedback to affect the sustainability and resilience of the social–environment system. We use a proposal by Lambin as an analytical frame for understanding this feedback, illustrating how information, motivation and capacity collectively structure the ways in which the actions of individuals can transform regional economies and landscapes. We draw on two Latin American case studies to illustrate the collective and synergistic implications of farmers’ livelihood and land use choices for the sensitivity of the region to future market and environmental shocks, as well as for the role of the landscapes in the global carbon cycle. We argue that the potential disconnect between individual goals of livelihood security and broader aims of system sustainability can be bridged through improved governance and attention to the role of policy, individual and collective experience, and resource constraints in adaptive choice.

DOI: 10.1007/s10584-008-9514-x     

[10] <mixed-citation publication-type="journal"><name>Cifdaloz <given-names>O,Regmi.A,Anderies J, et al. Robustness, vulnerability, and adaptive capacity in small-scale social-ecological systems:The Pumpa Irrigation System in Nepal[J]. Ecology and Society, <volume>15(3):<fpage>39.

Change in freshwater availability is arguably one of the most pressing issues associated with global change. Agriculture, which uses roughly 70% of the total global freshwater supply, figures prominently among sectors that may be adversely affected by global change. Of specific concern are small-scale agricultural systems that make up nearly 90% of all farming systems and generate 40% of agricultural output worldwide. These systems are experiencing a range of novel shocks, including increased variability in precipitation and competing demands for water and labor that challenge their capacity to maintain agricultural output. This paper employs a robustness-vulnerability trade-off framework to explore the capacity of these small-scale systems to cope with novel shocks and directed change. Motivated by the Pumpa Irrigation System in Nepal, we develop and analyze a simple model of rice-paddy irrigation and use it to demonstrate how institutional arrangements may, in becoming very well tuned to cope with specific shocks and manage particular human interactions associated with irrigated agriculture, generate vulnerabilities to novel shocks. This characterization of robustness-vulnerability trade-off relationships is then used to inform policy options to improve the capacity of small-scale irrigation systems to adapt to changes in freshwater availability.

DOI: 10.1890/08-2244.1     

[11] <mixed-citation publication-type="book" publication-format="print"><name lang="CN">张平宇. 矿业城市人地系统脆弱性:理论·方法·实证[M].北京:科学出版社,<year>2011. [12] <mixed-citation publication-type="journal"><name lang="CN">徐瑱. SES框架下地区脆弱性研究[D].兰州:兰州大学,<year>2009. [13] <mixed-citation publication-type="journal"><name lang="CN">陈晓红,<name lang="CN">万鲁河.城市化与生态环境耦合的脆弱性与协调性作用机制研究[J].地理科学,<year>2013,<volume>33(12):<fpage>1450~<lpage>1457.

城市化与生态环境耦合受到人类 活动高强度干扰,要实现耦合的协调发展与脆弱性的减少需要一定内外力的强力支撑。在阐述城市化与生态环境耦合脆弱性与协调性概念、特征的基础上,提出城市 化与生态环境耦合的协调性与脆弱性是在自然条件与孕灾环境、人口素质与城市文明、产业升级与技术进步、制度创新与管理科学、系统自身的恢复力等多种机制的 共同作用下发展的。通过挖掘城市化与生态环境耦合的脆弱性与协调性之间的的宏观作用机制,促进城市化与生态环境的良性互动,为提高城市与区域可持续发展能 力提供科学参考。

[14] <mixed-citation publication-type="journal"><name lang="CN">苏飞,<name lang="CN">陈媛,<name lang="CN">张平宇.基于集对分析的旅游城市经济系统脆弱性评价——以舟山市为例[J].地理科学,<year>2013,<volume>33(5):<fpage>538~<lpage>544.

基于经济系统脆弱性的内涵，从敏感性和应对能力2个方面建立了旅游城市经济系统脆弱性评价指标体系，采用熵值法确定各评价指标的权重，运用集对分析法构建了脆弱性评估模型。以群岛旅游城市舟山为例，分析了1995---2010年舟山市旅游型经济系统脆弱性的演变特征及主要影响因素。结果表明：①舟山市经济系统对不利扰动的敏感性呈下降趋势，区域应对能力波动上升，系统脆弱性整体上呈现不断下降态势；②敏感性的强弱对舟山经济系统脆弱性的影响居于主导地位；⑨总游客量增长率、旅游外汇收入占旅游总收入比重、地方财政自给率、客源市场集中度等是影响系统脆弱性的关键因子：地方财政自给率低、产业结构不合理及教育投入不足是阻碍区域应对能力提升的主要因素。

[15] <mixed-citation publication-type="journal"><name lang="CN">李军,<name lang="CN">保继刚.旅游经济脆弱性特点与产业联系[J].旅游学刊,<year>2011,<volume>26(6):<fpage>35~<lpage>41.

］影视旅游发展越来越体现出产业融合的特征，这使得从产业融合视角研究影视旅游具有重要意义。基于产业融合的视角，影视旅游发展模式可以分为影视外景地旅游、影视故事发生地旅游、影视文化旅游、影视拍摄制作基地旅游、影视主题乐园旅游、影视节庆旅游等6类，其中前3类可以进一步概括为影视传播旅游，后3类可以概括为影视提供旅游内容。影视所固有的传播功能是前者的一个基础，旅游吸引物的无边界性则是后者的一个基础，两者共有的基础则是影视和旅游产业共同的文化产业本质。和技术创新是信息化领域产业融合主要动力不同，需求发展导致的市场融合是影视旅游发展的根本动力。和信息化领域相同的是，企业同样是影视产业和旅游产业融合发展的主体。

[16] <mixed-citation publication-type="journal"><name lang="CN">王岩,<name lang="CN">方创琳.大庆市城市脆弱性综合评价与动态演变研究[J].地理科学,<year>2014,<volume>34(5):<fpage>547~<lpage>555.

城市脆弱性是指城市在发展过程中抵抗资源、生态环境、经济、社会发展等内外部自然要素和人为要素干扰的能力。当这种抗干扰能力低于某一临界阈值时,城市即进入脆弱状态。城市脆弱性一般包括资源脆弱性、生态环境脆弱性、经济脆弱性和社会脆弱性四大类型,是上述四种脆弱性的综合体现。大庆市是一座典型的资源型城市,具有明显的脆弱性特征。采用系统分析方法和综合指数评价法,分别对城市各子系统脆弱性和城市综合脆弱性动态演变特征进行研究,分析表明:①1990~2012年,大庆市资源脆弱性呈现增加趋势,生态环境脆弱性、经济脆弱性、社会脆弱性均呈现降低趋势;②1990~2012年大庆市城市综合脆弱性经历了"快速下降-波动下降-加速下降"3个变化阶段,目前大庆市处于由中脆弱度向较低脆弱度的过度阶段;③伴随石油开采和城市发展,大庆市已经从经济主导型脆弱性转变为资源主导型脆弱性,大庆市已处于城市发展的重要历史时期,亟需加快经济转型和城市转型步伐,转则兴,不转则衰。未来,应持续关注资源型城市,加强资源型城市脆弱性的研究,进一步总结城市脆弱性的发生机理与变化规律,为城市转型和实现可持续发展提供科学依据。

[17] <mixed-citation publication-type="journal"><name lang="CN">李鹤,<name lang="CN">张平宇,<name lang="CN">程叶青.脆弱性的概念及其评价方法[J].地理科学进展,<year>2008,<volume>27(2):<fpage>18~<lpage>25.

孙晶,<name lang="CN">王俊,<name lang="CN">杨新军.社会-生态系统恢复力研究综述[J].生态学报,<year>2007,<volume>27(12):<fpage>5371~<lpage>5381.

目前国内外对脆弱性的论述很多，然而关于恢复力的研究却刚刚起步且困难重重。1973年Holling创造性地将恢复力引入到生态系统稳定性的研究中，并将其定义为系统吸收干扰并继续维持其功能、结构、反馈等不发生质变的能力。30多年来这一术语的概念和内涵在大量的案例研究中得到了丰富和完善，然而这些研究对恢复力的不同解释亦造成了大量的混淆，因此需要在统一的理论基础上，根据控制系统变化的属性来构建恢复力的概念并进行应用研究。在社会-生态系统框架下，分析了恢复力研究的基础理论——适应性循环及扰沌，对其概念及内涵做了进展综述，回顾了恢复力的应用案例，探讨了定量化问题，在此基础上对社会．生态系统恢复力的研究进行了展望，提出了面临的关键问题及今后的研究方向。

DOI: 10.3321/j.issn:1000-0933.2007.12.050     

[19] <mixed-citation publication-type="journal"><name lang="CN">刘小茜,<name lang="CN">王仰麟,<name lang="CN">彭建.人类环境-耦合系统脆弱性研究进展[J].地球科学进展,<year>2009,<volume>24(8):<fpage>918~<lpage>927. [20] <mixed-citation publication-type="journal"><name lang="CN">姚建,<name lang="CN">艾南山,<name lang="CN">丁晶.中国生态环境脆弱性及其评价研究进展[J].兰州大学学报(自然科学版) ,<year>2003,<volume>39(3):<fpage>77~<lpage>80.

对近年来生态环境脆弱性的研究进行了归纳和总结 ,着重论述了脆弱生态环境的含义、生态脆弱性的成因及其评价方法 ,为脆弱生态环境的保护和管理实践提供借鉴 .

DOI: 10.3321/j.issn:0455-2059.2003.03.021     

[21] <mixed-citation publication-type="journal"><name lang="CN">方一平,<name lang="CN">秦大河,<name lang="CN">丁永建.气候变化脆弱性及其国际研究进展[J].冰川冻土,<year>2009,<volume>31(3):<fpage>540~<lpage>545

脆弱性一词广泛应用于不同的学科群体，由于各自学科研究传统和知识背景的差异，对脆弱性的理解和界定具有很大的差异性.依据近年来国外在该领域的主要研究成果，总结和综述了气候变化脆弱性概念的基本要素、脆弱性因素的分类特征；梳理了国际研究在灾害与权利的关系、社会和生态的综合集成方面的主流和进展；分析了脆弱性研究在度量、实证和治理应用等方面的主要挑战和方向.

[22] <mixed-citation publication-type="journal"><name lang="CN">张向龙,<name lang="CN">王俊,<name lang="CN">杨新军,<etal lang="CN">等.情景分析及其在生态系统研究中的应用[J].生态学杂志. <year>2008,<volume>27(10):<fpage>1763~<lpage>1770.

生态系统是一种具有多稳态机 制、自适应的复杂系统,其未来往往难以准确预测。情景分析方法针对影响系统的关键不确定性,通过对系统发展的几种可能性进行探索而构建一组不同的未来景 象,改变现有心理模型,激发广泛参与,提高决策有效性。近年来,情景分析方法在生态系统研究中得到了越来越多的关注。本文阐述了情景及情景分析的概念及其 发展,介绍了两种典型的情景分析步骤,分析了情景分析与传统生态预测方法的区别及其优越性,回顾了情景分析在生态系统研究中应用的经典案例,最后对情景分 析其方法本身的发展和在生态系统中的应用进行了总结和展望。

DOI:     

[23] <mixed-citation publication-type="journal"><name lang="CN">王俊,<name lang="CN">张向龙,<name lang="CN">杨新军,<etal lang="CN">等.半干旱区社会-生态系统未来情景分析[J].生态学杂志. <year>2009,<volume>28(6):<fpage>1143~<lpage>1148.

正在我国西北半干旱地区,频繁 发生的干旱是最主要的气候干扰因子,也是当地农业发展和生态环境建设最主要的限制因素。如何应对气候变化及其不确定性,提高对干旱的恢复力和适应能力,保 持社会经济系统未来的可持续运行和实现生态系统的稳定性,是当前学术界, 也是当地政府决策部门面临的主要目标之一。由于半干旱区的社会一生态系统具有高度的不

DOI:     

[24] <mixed-citation publication-type="journal"><name lang="CN">付加锋,<name lang="CN">刘小敏.基于情景分析法的中国低碳经济研究框架与问题探索[J].资源科学,<year>2010,<volume>32(2):<fpage>205~<lpage>210.

全球气候变化是当前国际社会关 注的热点话题,人类必须一致行动应对气候变化带来的挑战,越早采取行动越经济可行,发展低碳经济成为应对全球气候变化的重要战略选择。未来的不确定性使得 中国在面对经济发展与温室气体减排压力时的政策选择难度加大,情景分析提供了一种有效的分析方法。与发达国家不同,中国低碳经济发展情景不可能在先设定减 排目标的前提下,再采用反演方法设定情景并保障减排目标的实现。中国低碳经济发展情景的设计要更多关注中国可持续发展、能源安全和能源技术、经济竞争力, 并在经济稳定发展情况下对发展低碳经济有一定的投入。因此,中国低碳经济发展情景的设计要在社会经济发展水平总体约束下,通过调整部门能源需求的驱动因素 加以实现。然而,"低碳"经济情景是一个相对概念,只有通过不同情景设计来选择较为适合中国发展的低碳经济情景模式。本文将对构建中国未来低碳经济发展情 景框架,关键指标的选择与设定,情景逻辑性检验等方面的问题进行探讨,从而为中国走低碳经济发展道路提供参考。

[25] <mixed-citation publication-type="journal"><name lang="CN">龙瀛,<name lang="CN">沈振江,<name lang="CN">毛其智,<etal lang="CN">等.基于约束性CA方法的北京城市形态情景分析[J].地理学报,<year>2010,<volume>65(6):<fpage>643~<lpage>655.

田金平,<name lang="CN">陈吕军,<name lang="CN">杜鹏飞,<etal lang="CN">等.基于情景分析的浙江沿海地区环境污染防治战略研究[J].环境科学,<year>2013,<volume>34(1):<fpage>336~<lpage>346.

运用情景分析方法研究了浙江沿海地区经济发展方式对环境产生的压 力.首先以COD、氨氮、二氧化硫和氮氧化物这4种污染物的排放量为基准,筛选了某典型城市的18个重污染工业行业.其次以重污染工业行业为对象,设计了 情景分析模型和辅助程序,以2008年为基准年,目标年2015年重污染工业行业4种污染物的排放量须在基准年基础上下降一定比例作为约束条件,分析在基 准情景、产业结构调整情景、工业结构调整情景、清洁生产技术情景、综合情景、可持续发展6种情景下,目标年该市18个重污染行业4种主要污染物的排放量. 目的是明确人均GDP已突破70 000元的沿海经济发达城市如何转变发展方式,使经济发展的同时,污染物排放量有所减少,以期为优化工业行业发展结构提供决策参考.基于情景分析结论,提 出了进一步发展建议,包括经济适度增长(GDP增长7％左右),加大力度调整产业结构,控制重污染行业发展速度,加强重污染行业的结构调整,加强源头控 制,加大力度推进清洁生产技术,大幅削减污染物产生量,同时加强治污设施运营监管,提高污染物去除效率.通过上述措施在目标年可控制重污染行业的COD、 氨氮、二氧化硫和氮氧化物分别在基准年基础上下降10％、10％、5％和15％.

DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1006-8791.2014.08.028     

[27] <mixed-citation publication-type="journal"><name lang="CN">卢毅,<name lang="CN">李理,<name lang="CN">赵勇,<etal lang="CN">等.基于情景分析的城市空间与产业战略布局选择——以宜宾市为例[J].经济地理,<year>2013,<volume>3:<fpage>93~<lpage>98,138.

针对常规预测方法难于解决宜宾市当前形势下空间与产业战略布局的 问题,应用情景分析方法,明确其关键影响因素和核心问题,构建出多核、单核、带状等三种最有可能出现的情景方案,进行分析评价,作出宜宾市“多核发展”空 间战略布局选择.在协调统筹考虑空间、交通因素的基础上,制定出宜宾“三核心三轴十二组团”的模式与产业战略布局选择及其发展策略.

[28] <mixed-citation publication-type="journal"><name lang="CN">梁友嘉,<name lang="CN">徐中民,<name lang="CN">钟方雷.基于SD和CLUE-S模型的张掖市甘州区土地利用情景分析[J].地理研究,<year>2011,<volume>301(3):<fpage>564~<lpage>576.

近年来，学者们基于不同研究需要开发了很多土地利用变化／覆盖（LUCC）模型。但迄今没有一个单独的模型可在不同时空尺度上揭示所有土地利用变化的关键过程。本文尝试开发一种集成SD模型与CLUE—S模型的建模方法，用以弥补已有LUCC模型缺陷，并将其应用于张掖市甘州区的土地利用情景分析中，得到的LUCC模拟结果可为该区土地利用规划和环境管理提供一定的决策支持，同时为基于不同LUCC下垫面的水文过程情景分析提供源数据。结论如下：（1）开发了一个能够反映人类活动影响的SD模型，，用于预测2000～2035年间不同土地利用类型在不同社会经济情景下的总需求量。（2）利用CLUE-S模型实现了土地利用需求驱动下的土地利用变化过程的空间表现。2000年土地利用模拟图的Kappa值为0．86，2005年的Kappa值为0．81，集成模型的整体精度较高，500m×500m的空间格网分析尺度适合研究区。（3）分析该集成建模优势及不足，为后续工作做好铺垫。

DOI: 10.3724/SP.J.1011.2011.00415     

[29] <mixed-citation publication-type="journal"><name>Jacqueline D <given-names>C,<name>Fabien <given-names>Q,<name>Sandra <given-names>L,<etal>et al.Including multiple differing stakeholder values into vulnerability assessments of social-ecological systems[J]. Global Environmental Change, <year>2008,(18):<fpage>508-<lpage>520. [30] <mixed-citation publication-type="journal"><name lang="CN">杨正勇,<name lang="CN">杨怀宇,<name lang="CN">郭宗香.农业生态系统服务价值研究进展[J].中国生态农业学报,<year>2009,<volume>17(5):<fpage>1045~<lpage>1050.

农业生态系统提供的服务对人类的可持续发展至关重要。该系统的一些服务价值因在市场上未能反映出来而往往被人类所忽略, 正确评价此类系统服务价值具有重要意义。本文在系统回顾该领域研究进程的基础上, 从研究方法、研究内容、研究尺度、支撑学科等方面总结了现有研究的特点, 从所揭示的生态服务价值的完全程度、研究视角的广泛程度、研究方法的完善程度、研究领域的涵盖程度等方面分析了国内研究中存在的基本问题, 进而指出, 学术界在林地生态系统、草地生态系统以及价值评估方法的研究方面已经取得了众多成果, 在农田生态系统服务价值的研究方面也取得了一定进展, 但农田生态系统和渔业生态系统服务价值、非市场价值评估方法研究等方面需要重点突破, 对林地生态系统、草地生态系统的研究也需要在价值构成、生态服务价值的时空变化等方面进一步探讨。

[31] <mixed-citation publication-type="book" publication-format="print"><name>Millennium Ecosystem <given-names>Assessment.Chapter 6:concepts of ecosystem value and valuation approaches.In:Ecosystems and Well-Being: A Framework for Assessment[M].Washington: Island Press,<year>2003. [32] <mixed-citation publication-type="journal"><name>Cornelissen J H <given-names>C,<name>Lavorel <given-names>S,<name>Garnier <given-names>E,<etal>et al.A handbook of protocols for standardized and easy measurement of plant functional traits worldwide[J].Australian Journal of Botany, <year>2003,<volume>51(4):<fpage>335-<lpage>380. [33] <mixed-citation publication-type="journal"><name>Hodgson J <given-names>G,<name>Wilson P <given-names>J,<name>Hunt <given-names>R, <etal>et al.Allocating CSR plant functional types:a soft approach to a hard problem[J].Oikos,<year>1999:<fpage>282-<lpage>294.

ABSTRACT A long-term research programme, conducted mainly in northern England, has involved field surveys (1965-77), laboratory screening (1974-96), monitoring of permanent plots (1958 to date) and manipulative experiments (1987 to date). The so-called C-S-R classification of plant functional types developed from all this activity. Patterns of covariation among the traits used in the classification have recently been validated in this journal. The C-S-R classification appears to be applicable to vegetation in general. It thus has considerable potential for interpreting and predicting vegetation and ecosystem properties on a world-wide scale. However, to realize this potential we need to develop simplified procedures to extrapolate the C-S-R system to the many species which have not been the subject of previous ecological investigation. Here we describe a rapid method for attribution of C-S-R type and we test its accuracy in Britain by comparing it with an independent classification based upon more laborious procedures. The new method allocates a functional type to an unknown herbaceous subject using few, simple predictor variables. We have developed spreadsheets to perform all of the necessary calculations. These may be downloaded from the UCPE website at , or obtained by direct application to the E-mail address ucpe@sheffield.ac.uk

DOI: 10.2307/3546494     

[34] <mixed-citation publication-type="journal"><name>Garnier <given-names>E,<name>Lavorel <given-names>S,<name>Ansquer <given-names>P.Assessing the effects of land-use change on plant traits,communities,andecosystem functioning in grasslands:a standardized methodology and lessons from an application to 11 European sites[J].Annals of Botany,<year>2007,(99):<fpage>967-<lpage>985.:oai:DiVA.org:su-21403 [35] <mixed-citation publication-type="journal"><name>Norton B <given-names>G,<name>Noonan <given-names>D.Ecology and valuation:big changes needed.Ecological Economics[J].<year>2007, <volume>63(4):<fpage>664-<lpage>675.

Ecological Economics has developed as a “transdisciplinary science,” but it has not taken significant steps toward a truly integrated process of evaluating anthropogenic ecological change. The emerging dominance within ecological economics of the movement to monetize “ecological services,” when combined with the already well-entrenched dominance of contingent pricing as a means to evaluate impacts on amenities, has created a “monistic” approach to valuation studies. It is argued that this monistic approach to evaluating anthropogenic impacts is inconsistent with a sophisticated conception of ecology as a complex science that rests on shifting metaphors. An alternative, pluralistic and iterative approach to valuation of anthropogenic ecological change is proposed.

DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2007.02.013     

[36] <mixed-citation publication-type="journal"><name>Luers A <given-names>L.The surface of vulnerability: an analytical framework for examining environmental change[J].Global Environmental Change,<year>2005,(15):<fpage>214-<lpage>223.

This paper introduces an analytical framework for evaluating the vulnerability of people and places to environmental and social forces. The framework represents the relative vulnerability of a variable of concern (e.g. such as agricultural yield) to a set of disturbing forces (e.g. climate change, market fluctuations) by a position on a three-dimensional analytical surface, where vulnerability is defined as a function of sensitivity, exposure, and the state relative to a threshold of damage. The surface is presented as a tool to help identify relative vulnerability in order to prioritize actions and assess the vulnerability implications of management and policy decisions.

DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2005.04.003     

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  本文关键词：基于集对分析的旅游城市经济系统脆弱性评价——以舟山市为例，由笔耕文化传播整理发布。

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