投资评估的品牌经济模型及其应用

发布时间：2018-02-19 17:35

本文关键词： 投资评估品牌选择成本价值效应　出处：《山东大学》2010年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】： 本文利用经济学的分析方法和分析工具对现有投资评估方法及其体系进行了经济分析,通过将基于选择成本的品牌这个要素纳入到投资评估体系及其具体的评估方法当中,构建出一般性的投资评估理论框架。投资是货币转化为生产资本,而商品流通则是资本的起点(马克思,1867)。随着社会生产力的不断提高,过剩经济已成为一种常态,此时,消费者的选择和购买决定了企业生产的商品价值的最终实现,从而也决定了投资的成败。消费者的选择和决策过程实际上也就是其在“局限条件”下实现选择成本最优化的过程,选择成本不仅决定了消费者的选择效率和企业的生产效率,它也进一步影响到了投资的效率。品牌的经济学本质在于其是降低消费者选择成本的排他性品类符号,以品牌分析为基础的投资评估模型则是本文的主要分析对象,它也是本文研究的核心内容。本文的一切研究皆是利用和围绕引入品牌的投资评估模型(简称IVB模型)这一核心范畴而展开的。本文对投资评估的经济分析是从决定投资最后完成的“惊险的跳跃”,即投资价值的最终实现考察入手的,利用品牌经济学的选择成本分析范式,通过分析品牌与消费者选择行为之间的关系,将品牌分析引入到投资评估的分析范式当中,从而实现投资评估进一步的精确化。换言之,本文将以选择成本分析为基础的“品牌”看作是投资评估的重要分析内容,作为整个投资评估分析的理论依据,依次将品牌这个要素引入到投资评估的基本方法、银行贷款评估、证券投资评估、并购投资评估理论当中,构建引入品牌的投资评估学的一般理论框架：第一,投资评估理论——IVB模型的提出。本文利用已有的品牌经济学理论将传统投资投资评估理论与以选择成本分析为核心的品牌经济学理论有机结合,并据此对现有的投资评估方法进行了分析和改进。本文认为,传统投资评估方法以财务报表分析为基础,其主要问题在于默认项目产量等于销量,这种默认在短缺经济的条件下是正确的,在过剩经济下则可能是错误的,而这也正是现有的很多项目虽然通过了项目评估仍然无法实现预期效益的主要原因。因此,本文通过取消这种默认改进了传统的投资评估方法,也使作为表外因素的品牌指标进入投资评估的体系成为了可能。本文提出了引入品牌的投资评估模型——IVB模型,并利用其分析的结果对现实中的投资进行了解释。第二,IVB模型的主要应用之一是在传统银行贷款评估体系中引入表外评估的内容。在对金融机构不良资产问题研究述评和回顾国内外贷款评估现状的基础上,本文对国内贷款评估方法进行了反思。反思的内容主要包含两个方面,一是认为企业已有经营业绩不等于未来经营业绩；二是认为项目产量不等于项目销量。而这两个方面归纳起来就是传统的投资评估方法忽略了项目的不确定性。因此,本文相应提出了引入项目不确定性分析的评估思想,并将项目的不确定性分为成本的不确定性和收益的不确定性。成本的不确定性具体可分为来自自然和人类社会的两种不确定性,产生的原因是项目主体掌握的信息不足,其可以通过加强管理等手段予以克服,而这些内容在传统的项目评估中也已经得到了反映；收益的不确定性来自于市场上消费者掌握信息的不足,它是消费者对企业项目产品选择的不确定性,克服这种不确定性只能依靠加强企业及其产品的品牌。这样,通过在传统的项目贷款评估体系中引入IVB模型分析的内容,可以实现项目贷款的表外评估,实现项目贷款评估体系的创新。之后本文通过阐述现有贷款评估的三个误区,解释了中小企业贷款难的问题,并提出在中小企业贷款评估中引入IVB模型分析的思路。第三,IVB模型的主要应用之二是在传统证券投资评估模型基础上引入品牌分析。对上市公司的价值分析是证券投资分析的基础,而这就涉及到如何正确认识公司的价值。已有的公司价值理论并没有解释清楚什么因素决定公司现金流的来源,也没有指出公司能够长期实现正现金流的基础。针对已有理论对公司价值分析的不足,本文指出品牌是公司实现长期正现金流的根本保证,本文在解释了品牌与公司价值关系的基础上提出了引入品牌的证券投资评估模型——SVB模型,并由此得出结论,在既定的公司治理下,当某个公司股票满足品牌指标中品牌信用度和品类终极度均为1且品类需求强度极大时,则可以将此时公司对应的产品或服务定义为品牌垄断,拥有品牌垄断的公司可以被认为具有持久的竞争优势。在对公司的品牌因素分析之后,参照公司价值及投资成本就可以最后确定股票组合的投资价值。利用SVB模型的分析结果解释了巴菲特的具体投资案例,最后建立了更为直观的“品牌——公司价格价值比”模型,并得出相应的结论,即品牌解释了公司的可持续竞争优势,因此将品牌的分析引入公司价值评估模型有利于提高证券投资评估的准确性。第四,IVB模型的应用之三是对并购投资中价值效应问题进行解释。从并购价值创造的视角出发,本文相应回顾了MM定理、最优资本结构理论、科斯定理和竞争优势理论,并依次指出了这些理论在解释并购价值创造中的不足之处。在此基础上,本文提出了在并购价值评估中引入品牌分析的观点,利用IVB模型的结论相应地建立了检验并购价值效应的理论模型——MVE模型。之后本文对并购从形式上进行了分类,并利用MVE模型对三种并购形式进行了相应解释：纵向并购虽然主要好处在于可以降低企业间的交易费用,但随着企业产业食物链规模的扩大,经营风险也在增加,此时销售终端消费者选择的不确定性对企业经营的威胁也会更大；横向并购可以通过提高企业整体的品牌因素实现并购的价值正效应；混合并购成功率低的原因在于其提升企业整体品牌因素要比横向并购更困难,而且混合并购分散企业经营风险的初衷也与提升企业品牌优势的价值创造存在一定的矛盾。利用分析结论本文分析了我国企业海外并购多失败的原因,排除制度因素,我国企业在海外并购中往往为了国际化而国际化,在并购企业目标的选择中忽视了对企业实际的品牌因素的考察,而只是看重目标企业的低售价或所谓的高知名度。相比之下国外企业在收购国内企业的过程中则由于特别注重了收购对象的品牌因素,因此其总体收购效果要好于国内企业的海外并购。最后本文进一步提出了有关并购的“品牌——成本”二维模型。综观本文,其实既是已有品牌经济学理论的拓展与应用,也是投资评估理论的创新。在投资评估模型中引入以选择成本为基础的品牌分析是本文的最大创新之处。总之,本文是在传统投资评估的概念箱子中加入了“品牌”这个新的理念和范畴,并由此构建了新的概念箱子,从这个意义上说,本文的研究丰富了投资评估的研究领域,为品牌经济学与投资评估学的融合与创新提供了理论基础,同时也对投资评估的实践有一定的指导意义。
[Abstract]:This paper uses economic analysis method and analysis tool for existing investment evaluation method and system of economic analysis, through the element of choice cost based on the brand into the investment evaluation system and the specific evaluation method, construct a general investment evaluation framework.
Investment is the conversion of money into productive capital, and the circulation of commodities is the starting point of capital (Marx, 1867). With the improvement of social productivity, surplus economy has become a norm, at this time, the choice and purchase of consumers determines the final realization of the value of commodities, which also determines the success or failure of the investment. And the consumer's decision-making process is realized under limited conditions the selection process, cost optimization, cost not only determines the consumer choice efficiency and the production efficiency of the enterprise, it also further affect the efficiency of investment. The economic nature of brand lies in its consumer choice is to reduce the cost to exclusive category symbols. Brand investment appraisal model based analysis is the main object of this paper, its core content is studied in this paper. This research is all good With the introduction and evaluation of investment around the brand model (IVB model) and the core category.
The economic analysis on investment evaluation is from investment decision finally completed the "breathtaking leap", namely the investment value of the final realization of the study start, use choice cost analysis paradigm of brand economics, by analyzing the relationship between brand and consumer choice behavior, the brand will be introduced into the investment appraisal analysis which, in order to achieve investment evaluation for further precision. In other words, this paper will be based on choice cost "brand" as an important content analysis of investment appraisal, investment evaluation as the theoretical basis of the analysis, in turn the brand into the basic method of investment appraisal, bank loan assessment, portfolio assessment, mergers and acquisitions investment appraisal theory, general framework of investment evaluation after the introduction of brand science:
First, investment evaluation theory -- IVB model. The theory of brand economics for the traditional investment theory with cost analysis is the core of the brand economics theory by combining the paper, and carry out the analysis and improvement of the existing investment evaluation methods. This paper argues that the traditional investment evaluation methods in the analysis of financial statements the foundation, the main problem is that the default project output is equal to the sales volume, the default is correct in the shortage of economic conditions, in excess of the economy may be wrong, and this is also a lot of existing projects through the project evaluation still can not achieve the expected benefits of the main reasons. Therefore, the abolition of the default improved the traditional evaluation methods, also make the brand as a table of indicators and external factors into the investment appraisal system as possible in this paper. The introduction of the brand's investment evaluation model -- IVB model, on the reality of the investment and the analysis results are explained.
Second, one of the main application of the IVB model is introduced into the traditional bank loan evaluation system through the content. Based on the review of the financial institutions to review the status of non-performing assets and evaluation of domestic and foreign loans, the paper reflects on the evaluation method of domestic loans. Reflection mainly includes two aspects, one is the that the companies with good performance is not equal to the future performance; two is that the project output is not equal to sales. And these two aspects is summed up in the traditional investment evaluation method ignores the uncertainty of the project. Therefore, this paper proposed the introduction of the corresponding project uncertainty analysis of the assessment of thought, and the uncertainty of the project is divided into the cost of uncertainty and earnings uncertainty. The uncertainty of the cost of concrete can be divided into two kinds of uncertainty from nature and human society, causes Is the lack of project subject information, which can be overcome by means of strengthening management, and these contents in the traditional project evaluation has been reflected; the uncertainty of returns from the market and consumers to grasp the lack of information, it is the consumer to enterprise project choice uncertainty, this uncertainty can only be overcome depending on the enterprise and its product brand. In this way, by introducing the IVB model to analyze the content of the traditional project loan evaluation system, can realize the project loan evaluation sheet, realize the innovation of project loan evaluation system. This paper describes three errors after the existing loan assessment, explains the difficult problem of SME loans. And introduces IVB model analysis of the ideas in the small and medium-sized enterprise loan assessment.
Third, the main application of the IVB model of the two is the traditional portfolio assessment model on the basis of the introduction of brand analysis. Analysis of the value of listed companies is the basis of the analysis of securities investment, which involves how to correctly understand the value of the company. The existing theory of the value of the company and no sources explain what factors determine the cash flow of the company no, pointed out that the company can achieve long-term basis of positive cash flow. Aiming at the shortcomings of the existing theoretical analysis on the value of the company, this paper points out that the brand is the basic guarantee for the company long-term positive cash flow, this paper explains the basic in the relationship between the brand and the value of company introduced brand portfolio assessment model -- SVB model, and in conclusion, established in the corporate governance, when a company's stock to meet the brand credit degree and category brand index was 1 and the degree of ultimate category required For great strength, it can be a product or service that corresponds to the definition of brand monopoly, owned brand monopoly company can be considered to have a lasting competitive advantage. After analyzing the factors of the company's brand, according to the company value and the investment cost can finally determine the stock portfolio investment value analysis by SVB model. The results explain the specific investment case of Buffett, finally established a more intuitive "brand price value ratio model, and draws the corresponding conclusion, namely the brand to explain the company's sustainable competitive advantage, so the company will introduce the brand value evaluation model is helpful to improve the accuracy of portfolio assessment.
Fourth, the application of three IVB model is to explain the value of mergers and acquisitions investment effect. Starting from mergers and acquisitions create value perspective, this paper reviews the corresponding MM theorem, the optimal capital structure theory, Kos theorem and the theory of competitive advantage, and then pointed out the deficiencies of these theories in the interpretation of this value. On the basis, this paper proposes to introduce the brand perspective in mergers and acquisitions in the evaluation, using IVB model to establish the corresponding conclusion testing the theory of M & a value effect model MVE model. After the merger is classified from the form, and make the corresponding explanation to the three form of merger and acquisition by MVE model: vertical merger although the main advantage is that it can reduce transaction costs between enterprises, but with the expansion of enterprise scale industrial food chain, management risk is also increased, while sales of consumer terminal The uncertainty of business choice threat will be greater; horizontal mergers can improve the overall realization of enterprise brand's value is in effect; the overall brand promotion enterprise factors to be more difficult than the reason of the low success rate of horizontal mergers and acquisitions acquisitions decentralized business risk and intention promote the enterprise brand value creation contradiction exists. Using the analysis conclusion this paper analyzes the causes of China's overseas M & a failure, exclusion of institutional factors, Chinese enterprises in overseas mergers and acquisitions tend to internationalization and the internationalization of M & A in the choice of the target in the studies neglect the brand factors on the actual enterprise. But the value of target enterprise low price or so-called high visibility. Compared with foreign enterprises in the process of acquisition of domestic enterprises in the special note Brand heavy targets, so the overall effect is better than the acquisition of domestic enterprises overseas mergers and acquisitions. Finally, this paper further proposes a "brand - cost" two-dimensional model about mergers and acquisitions.
In this paper, both the existing brand economics theory development and application, but also investment evaluation theory innovation in investment evaluation model in the introduction of brand analysis to select the basis of cost is the biggest innovation of this paper. In short, this paper is in the traditional investment evaluation concept in the box to join the "brand" of the new concept and category, and thus build a new concept box, in this sense, this study enriches the research field of investment evaluation, provides a theoretical basis for the integration and innovation of brand economics and investment evaluation, but also the practice of investment evaluation has certain guiding significance.

【学位授予单位】：山东大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2010
【分类号】：F224;F273.2

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