供应链企业信用风险度量及其传染分析研究

发布时间：2017-12-27 15:33

本文关键词：供应链企业信用风险度量及其传染分析研究　出处：《湖南大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：英国供应链管理专家马丁·克里斯托弗(Martin Christopher)在1992年指出:21世纪的竞争不再是企业和企业之间的竞争,而是供应链和供应链之间的竞争。随着供应链管理模式的兴起,供应链中企业信用风险问题越发受到实业界和学术界的重视。特别是,供应链中企业的信用风险传染已经严重威胁到整个供应链的稳定性和敏捷性。因此,供应链中企业面对的难题之一就是如何有效地度量、分析供应链信用风险传染问题。供应链信用风险传染的预防与控制也已经在企业经营战略中占有重要的地位。本文首先回顾了供应链中企业之间信用风险传染问题相关文献,对供应链中企业之间信用风险发生的成因、路径、以及选择性机制进行了相关的理论梳理与补充。其次,本文详细对比了现代信用度量模型并结合中国目前信用市场的实际情况,选取KMV模型作为供应链中上市企业信用风险度量模型并进行了相关参数修正。采用修正KMV模型分别对医药流通供应链、钢铁供应链中上市公司的信用风险水平进行测量。最后,采用数据挖掘方法对样本公司信用风险传染效应进行实证研究。通过对关联规则的分析,挖掘供应链中企业信用风险传染的背后机理。使得供应链中企业可以适时调整供应链协作方式,以预防供应链信用风险的传染问题。研究结果表明:医药流通行业供应链中企业整体信用风险水平低于钢铁行业供应链中企业整体信用风险水平,但是医药流通供应链中企业的信用风险传染频率和传染强度均高于钢铁行业供应链中企业的信用风险传染频率和传染强度;供应链间游企业经营型关联、债务型关联、投资型关联、宏观经济环境是影响供应链企业间信用风险传染重要影响因素。
[Abstract]:Martin Christopher, a British supply chain management expert (Martin Christopher), pointed out in 1992 that competition in twenty-first Century is no longer a competition between enterprises and enterprises, but between supply chains and supply chains. With the rise of the supply chain management model, the credit risk of enterprises in the supply chain has been paid more and more attention by the industry and the academia. In particular, the credit risk contagion of enterprises in the supply chain has seriously threatened the stability and agility of the whole supply chain. Therefore, one of the problems faced by enterprises in the supply chain is how to effectively measure and analyze the problem of the contagion of the credit risk in the supply chain. The prevention and control of the contagion of the credit risk in the supply chain has also played an important role in the business strategy of the enterprise. This paper first reviews the literature about credit risk contagion in enterprises in supply chain, and makes a theoretical analysis and supplement to the cause, path and selective mechanism of credit risk between enterprises in supply chain. Secondly, this paper compares the modern credit measurement model and the actual situation of China's credit market, selects the KMV model as the credit risk measurement model of the listed companies in the supply chain, and revising the relevant parameters. The revised KMV model is used to measure the level of the credit risk of the listed companies in the supply chain of medicine and the iron and steel supply chain. Finally, the data mining method is used to carry out an empirical study on the contagion effect of the Sample Firms credit risk. Through the analysis of the association rules, the mechanism behind the contagion of the enterprise credit risk in the supply chain is excavated. In order to prevent the contagious problem of the supply chain credit risk, the enterprises in the supply chain can adjust the cooperation mode of supply chain in a timely manner. The results show that: the overall level of credit risk of enterprises in the supply chain of pharmaceutical distribution industry is lower than the overall level of credit risk of enterprise of iron and steel industry in the supply chain, but the enterprise of pharmaceutical distribution supply chain in the credit risk contagion frequency and intensity of infection was higher than that of the iron and steel industry enterprises in the supply chain credit risk contagion frequency and intensity of infection; supply chain between the tour enterprises business association, association, association of debt investment, the macroeconomic environment is between supply chain enterprises credit risk factors.
【学位授予单位】：湖南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F426.31;F426.72;F274

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