ANP模糊综合评价在盘道沟风电场的应用研究

发布时间：2017-12-28 04:28

本文关键词：ANP模糊综合评价在盘道沟风电场的应用研究　出处：《华北电力大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：我国的风力发电事业发展迅猛。2012年6月我国累计风电装机容量达到5258万千瓦,取代美国成为世界第一风电大国。按照国家风电发展十二五规划,2015年我国风电并网装机容量将达到1亿千瓦,2020年达到2亿千瓦。与风力发电规模的迅猛发展相比,我国对于风力发电工程项目评价的相关研究还处于起步阶段,尚且缺乏一个概况性强的风电工程项目的综合评价系统体系。所以,建立一个全面合理、具有参考价值且符合实际运用情况的风电项目综合评价体系是目前风电项目进行投资需要解决的问题。本文在理论研究的基础上,将沽源盘道沟风电场工程项目作为实证研究的分析对象,对风电场工程项目的综合评价方法进行研究。对常用工程项目综合评价理论进行分析介绍,并根据风电场工程项目的特点,确定综合评价的原则,选取网络层次分析法、模糊综合评价法、德尔菲法等做为风电场工程项目的综合评价方法。本文对影响综合评价结果的各因素进行了详细分析,建立了风电场工程项目评价指标体系。针对评价体系中各指标间的相互影响关系,将定量指标和定性指标相结合,归纳总结出主要影响因子,建立起由项目建设条件、运行技术水平、经济效益、节能降耗以及环境影响五个方面组成的本工程项目的综合评价指标体系。鉴于构建的风电场工程项目的综合评价指标体系包括定量指标和定性指标的特点以及评价指标之间具有相互影响、相互依赖的关系,本文选用网络层次分析法和模糊综合评价方法相结合的分析模型,详细介绍了综合评价涉及到的评价者、评价对象、评价目的、评价指标、指标权重和评价方法等诸多方面因素。然后,阐释了综合评价的数学模型及其建立步骤。最后,本文对盘道沟风电场项目进行了综合评价,评价结果表明：对于沽源盘道沟风电场工程项目综合评价结果为较好,且从整体上看该风电工程项目的影响要优于过程和效益,风电具有一定的环境价值、社会价值和经济价值,且其环境价值和社会价值要大于其经济价值。本文所建立的风电场工程项目综合评价系统是在定性分析的基础上,对风电场工程项目进行定量化、模型化的综合评价,具有简洁性、适用性、实用性和可操作性等特点,不但全面、有效地反映了该工程项目的基本特征,而且还能较客观中肯地评估出该工程项目的总体价值水平。实际工程项目案例表明,本文所建立的综合评价方法合理有效,能够为此类项目的综合评价提供一定的科学依据和参考。
[Abstract]:The cause of wind power generation in China is developing rapidly. In June 2012, China's cumulative wind power installed capacity reached 52 million 580 thousand kilowatts, replacing the United States to become the world's largest wind power country. According to the plan of national wind power development in 12th Five-Year, in 2015, the capacity of wind power grid installed in China will reach 100 million kilowatts and 200 million kilowatts in 2020. Compared with the rapid development of wind power generation, the research on wind power project evaluation in our country is still at the initial stage, and there is a lack of a comprehensive evaluation system of wind power projects. Therefore, establishing a comprehensive and reasonable evaluation system for wind power projects with reference value and practical application is the problem to be solved in wind power projects. On the basis of theoretical research, Guyuan will take a ditch wind farm project as the analysis object of empirical research, research on comprehensive evaluation method of wind power project. The general evaluation theory of common engineering projects is introduced and analyzed. According to the characteristics of wind farm projects, the principles of comprehensive evaluation are determined, and the analytic hierarchy process, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and Delphi method are selected as the comprehensive evaluation methods of wind farm projects. In this paper, the factors affecting the comprehensive evaluation results are analyzed in detail, and the evaluation index system of the wind farm project is set up. According to the mutual influence between the various indicators in the evaluation system, the combination of quantitative and qualitative indicators, summarized the main influencing factors, establish a comprehensive evaluation of the project consists of five aspects of the project construction conditions, operation technology, economic efficiency, energy saving and environmental impact index system. In view of the interactive relationship and mutual dependence between characteristics of the comprehensive evaluation index system of wind farm project engineering construction including quantitative index and qualitative index and evaluation index, analysis model analysis the network hierarchy method and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, introduced in detail the factors related to the comprehensive evaluation, evaluation object, evaluation purpose, evaluation index, index weight and evaluation method. Then, the mathematical model of comprehensive evaluation and the steps of its establishment are explained. Finally, this paper makes a comprehensive evaluation of the winding channel wind farm project, the evaluation results show that: for the comprehensive evaluation of Guyuan Bando ditch wind farm project results is better, and the overall effect of the wind power project is superior to the process and benefits of wind power has a certain environmental value, social value and economic value. And the environmental value and social value than its economic value. The wind farm project comprehensive evaluation system established in this paper is on the basis of qualitative analysis, comprehensive evaluation of quantitative and modeling of wind power project, with simplicity, applicability, practicality and operability characteristics, not only comprehensively and effectively reflect the basic characteristics of the project. And can objectively assess the overall value of the level of engineering project. The actual project case shows that the comprehensive evaluation method established in this paper is reasonable and effective, which can provide certain scientific basis and reference for the comprehensive evaluation of such projects.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F224;F426.61

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