面向分布式电源点的智能电网市场风险传递模型研究

发布时间：2017-12-31 09:45

本文关键词：面向分布式电源点的智能电网市场风险传递模型研究　出处：《华北电力大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着智能电网理论与技术的快速发展,分布式电源点已经成为电网中不可忽视的构成之一,分布式电源点具有容量小、近负荷、耗能低等特点,但其并网运行也给智能电网的经济、安全运行带来了不小的挑战。本文着眼于建立面向分布式电源点的智能电网市场风险传递模型,旨在为智能电网市场的风险管理提供一定的理论依据。本文的主要研究内容包括三个方面：第一,研究面向分布式电源点的智能电网所面临的市场风险,通过定性描述、对比分析、量化表达的方法,提出最基础的客观风险元体系；第二,基于风险元传递理论,对市场中风险元传递路径定性分析,并基于粗糙集决策方法提取了风险传递路径；最后,针对智能电网市场中决策风险元传递可能造成的逆向选择问题进行了分析,结合信号传递博弈模型与最优化原理,构建了发电商、风险决策控制模型,并就智能电网市场风险规避机制进行了探讨。结果表明：为解决决策风险传递导致的市场逆向选择问题,发电商需要向购电商传递相应的风险信号；当购电商观测到信号并做出购电决策后,将增加向抗风险能力高的分布式发电商的支付；同时,整个电网市场的风险期望收益将显著增加,达到市场博弈的效益最优均衡。本文从风险元定义、传递路径分析、传递模型应用三个方面构建了系统的智能电网风险元传递体系,将风险元传递理论与智能电网市场风险管理进行了有机结合,具有一定的通用性,也可以推广到广义智能电网市场的风险传递研究中,具有一定的创新性和实践应用性。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of intelligent power grid theory and technology , the distributed power supply point has become one of the non - negligible components in the power grid . The distributed power supply point has the characteristics of small capacity , near load and low energy consumption , but its grid operation also brings some small challenges to the economy and safe operation of the intelligent power grid . The main research content of this paper includes three aspects : First , research the market risk faced by the intelligent power grid facing the distributed power supply point , and puts forward the most basic objective risk element system through qualitative description , comparative analysis and quantitative expression . In this paper , the risk element transfer system of the system is constructed from three aspects of risk element definition , transmission path analysis and transfer model application . The risk element transfer theory and the intelligent power grid market risk management are organically combined , so that the system has a certain versatility and can be popularized to the risk transmission research of the generalized intelligent power grid market , and has certain innovation and practical applicability .

【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F426.61

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