宏观经济与电力需求的短期分析预测

发布时间：2018-01-03 11:43

本文关键词：宏观经济与电力需求的短期分析预测　出处：《华北电力大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：改革开放三十年来,我国能源消费迅速增长,对电力的需求也急剧增加,进行准确的电力需求预测,是制订电力工业发展战略的重要依据。同时,也和国家能源安全、社会稳定密切相关。但是多年来,电力建设和电力供需周期性大起大落怪圈却一直困扰着电力工业,每一次供需失衡都对社会经济发展形成制约。无论电力短缺还是电力过剩,都不利于国民经济及电力工业自身的健康发展,要解决这一问题,必须对电力发展做科学的规划。基于此,只有正确判断未来宏观经济和电力需求的增长趋势,才能得到合理的规划结果。本文对经济预测中使用的结构预测和非结构预测两种方法进行了阐述。指出改革开放以来我国经济增长与电力需求之间具有高度相关性,分析了我国电力消费弹性系数的变化规律,研究了我国的电力消费结构日益明显的“工业化”特征,对各地区经济运行与用电量增长之间的关系进行了详细阐述,认为随着产业结构调整和城市化进程不断推进,我国电力需求还将不断增长。在回顾了2012年宏观经济和电力工业运行情况的基础上,本文对2013年宏观经济进行了展望,利用结构预测和非结构预测两种方法,分别采用投入产出模型和协整分析理论,测算了2013年全社会用电量。研究结果表明2013年我国全社会用电量将达到5.3-5.5万亿千瓦时,增速将在6%-9%之间。
[Abstract]:Thirty years of reform and opening up, China's rapid growth in energy consumption, but also a sharp increase in demand for electricity, electricity demand forecast, is the basis for formulating development strategy of power industry. At the same time, and also closely related to national energy security and social stability. But over the years, electric power construction and power supply and demand periodic cycle change radically it has been plagued by the electric power industry, every form of supply and demand imbalance restricts the development of society and economy. Whether the power shortage or surplus electricity, are not conducive to the healthy development of the national economy and the power industry itself, in order to solve this problem, must make scientific planning for electric power development. Based on this, only the correct judgment of the future growth trend the macro economy and power demand, planning to get reasonable results.
This paper expounds two methods of structure prediction used in economic forecasting and non structure. It is pointed out that there is a high correlation between China's economic growth and power demand since the reform and opening up, analyzed the variation of elastic coefficient of electricity consumption in our country, the research of China's electric power consumption structure is becoming more and more obvious characteristics of "industrialization" on the relationship between the regional economy and consumption growth in detail, that with the continuous progress of city industrial structure adjustment and urbanization, the demand for electric power in China will also continue to grow.
Based on reviewing the 2012 macroeconomic and the operation of the electric power industry, this paper has carried on the forecast to 2013 macroeconomic, two methods using non structure prediction and structure prediction, using input-output model and cointegration theory, the 2013 estimates of total power consumption. The results show that in 2013 China's total electricity consumption will reach 5.3-5.5 billion kwh, the growth rate will be between 6%-9%.

【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F426.61;F123.16

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