基于复杂系统科学思维观的企业重大决策群组ANP方法研究

发布时间：2018-01-03 21:49

本文关键词：基于复杂系统科学思维观的企业重大决策群组ANP方法研究　出处：《昆明理工大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：决策在企业管理中担当极其重要的角色,现代企业面临复杂的决策环境,以运筹学建立起来的线性决策模型借助计算机技术的确为企业提供了一些具有辅助性的办法,然而现行方法并未能真正反映出决策者思维过程的非线性问题,面对现实的复杂问题与情况,企业决策风险加大,不确定性增加,如何为企业提供一套科学有效而全面的决策分析方法,以帮助企业快速做出客观、准确的选择,谋求更长远的发展,成为企业迫切需要解决的主要难题,为此,本文提出了基于复杂系统科学思维观下的企业重大决策方法研究。围绕这一主题开展本文内容,首先,在搜集复杂系统理论、决策理论、决策方法等文献的基础上,归纳出了复杂系统科学思维观的相关概念,为论文提供了理论基础与研究思路；其次,将企业的重大决策问题划分为两部分——专家遴选问题与群组决策方法问题,对于第一个专家遴选问题,建立专家库,由企业的智囊团初选出专家范围,再利用模糊德尔菲法,解决最终专家遴选时的不确定性问题,以模糊数的形式计算各个专家的综合评价分值,进行排序优选；对于第二个群组决策问题,应充分考虑专家决策时的非线性思维,将实际决策问题分解为具有不同层次的网络结构,提出了改进的ANP群组决策方法,首先用专家投票方式对各项指标进行重要性排序,计算权重值,而后将权重值代入ANP超矩阵中,将改进后的方法得出的权重代替了传统ANP的两两比较判断矩阵,得出基于各准则下方案的优劣排序,考虑决策者的偏好编辑公式,得出方案的综合排序。本文最后,以某天然气企业为案例,针对实际决策问题,构造ANP网络结构,采用改进后的方法对数据予以了实例分析,计算出结果并得出最终优选方案,为企业重大决策提供了分析、判断的新的思路与方法,具有很强的可操作性。 AHP作为现代多属性决策问题的综合评价方法,自提出以来已经得到了学术界的广泛关注,应用领域涉及经济、管理、军事、人文等多方面,ANP在AHP的基础上加入了元素集内部与元素集之间的相互影响与反馈关系,使得该方法更加成熟,在决策科学方法研究领域得到广泛关注,但是任何一种决策方法都有它的适用性与限制性,无法解决决策领域出现的所有复杂非线性问题,ANP方法本身也存在固有缺陷有待进一步改进与完善。通过对现有评价方法的学习与参考提出改进建议,通过实例可以验证改进后的ANP群组决策方法可以实现复杂性思维与非线性思维的有机融合,进行方案的优选工作并得出结论,本文所述内容也为企业决策者提供了具有一定参考价值的理论与方法。
[Abstract]:The decision to play an extremely important role in the enterprise management, modern enterprises are facing a complicated decision environment to linear decision model of operational research established by computer technology does provide some complementary way for the enterprise, but the current method of nonlinear problems and can not really reflect the decision maker's thinking process, in the face of complex problems and situation the reality of the enterprise decision-making risk, increased uncertainty, how a set of scientific and effective and comprehensive decision-making method for enterprises, to help enterprises to quickly make an objective and accurate selection, seek more long-term development, has become a major problem, enterprises urgently need to solve this, this paper puts forward the study method for complex decisions the system of enterprise based on the view of scientific thinking.
Around the theme of this dissertation, first of all, in the collection of the complex system theory, decision theory, decision making method on the basis of literature, summed up the related concepts of complex system science thinking, provides a theoretical basis and research method for the paper; secondly, divide the major decision problem of the enterprise into two parts: expert selection the problem with the group decision method, expert selection for the first problem, the establishment of the experts, by the enterprise think-tank experts are selected, then using fuzzy Delphi method, finally solve the expert selection when the uncertainty problem, comprehensive evaluation in the form of fuzzy numbers to calculate each expert's score sorted for second; a group decision problem, should fully consider the nonlinear thinking expert decision of the actual decision problem is decomposed into network structure with different levels, puts forward improved ANP Group decision making method to rank the importance of the indicators of the experts vote, calculate the weight value, then the weight values of ANP super matrix, the weight of the improved method that replaces the traditional ANP 22 comparison judgment matrix, the ordering of the standard schemes based on considering the preference editor the formula, to obtain the comprehensive sorting scheme. Finally, in a natural gas enterprise as the case, according to the actual decision problem, constructs the ANP network, using the improved method to the case analysis of the data, the calculated results and the final optimization scheme, provides an analysis of major policy decisions for the enterprise, new ideas and methods to judge and it has strong operability.
AHP as a modern comprehensive evaluation method of multiple attribute decision making problems, since it has been put forward has received widespread attention in academic circles, is used in the field of economy, management, military, cultural and other aspects, ANP in AHP in the basis of the interaction between the internal elements set and element set and feedback relationship, which makes the method more mature, scientific decision-making method is widely concerned in the research field, but any kind of decision making method has its applicability and limitations, can not solve all the complex nonlinear problems arising from the field of decision, ANP itself has yet to be further improved and perfected the inherent defects.
Through the study and reference to the existing evaluation method put forward the improvement suggestions and examples to validate the improved ANP group decision making method can realize the organic integration of complex thinking and nonlinear thinking, optimize the work plan and concluded that the content in the paper can provide the theory basis and method has a certain reference value for the decision maker.

【学位授予单位】：昆明理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F272.2;F426.22

【参考文献】