中国工业分行业碳排放影响因素研究

发布时间：2018-01-06 01:04

本文关键词：中国工业分行业碳排放影响因素研究　出处：《哈尔滨工业大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：在全球气候变暖和化石能源日益枯竭的大环境下，控制温室气体排放对全人类来说已经迫在眉睫。各个国家都在寻求解决该问题的有效途径，以往的经济发展方式已不能满足当今世界经济发展的需要。一种新型的绿色经济模式-低碳经济应运而生，并且得到世界上许多国家的认可。中国作为发展中国家，在工业化进程中二氧化碳排放不断增加。我国在减缓碳排放、采用低碳发展模式方面仍任重道远。在此背景下，研究我国工业各具体行业碳排放的影响因素，分析它们对工业各行业碳排放的影响具有一定的理论意义。同时其研究结论也会为我国工业各行业碳减排政策的制定提供十分重要的参考价值和指导意义。本文首先介绍我国工业部门碳排放影响因素的研究目的，整理汇总当前相关研究文献后，提出论文的主要内容和方法。其次，通过对基础理论的回顾与分析，阐述了碳排放影响因素分析常用的两种分解方法：结构分解分析法（SDA）和指数分解分析法（IDA），并选择了IDA中LMDI方法作为本文的研究方法。之后建立了适用于我国工业碳排放领域的LMDI因素分解模型，研究碳排放的影响因素包括：人口规模、工业发展、行业结构、能耗强度、能源结构。第三，测算出工业各行业2003-2011年碳排放情况，分析其变化趋势。根据碳排放量的大小对39个行业进行分类，，分别分析每一类行业的影响因素。最后为了深入、有效地研究各项因素对工业各行业碳排放的影响，本文又进行了多因素回归分析。研究结果显示，我国工业部门不同行业之间碳排放差异较大，其中以黑色金属冶炼及压延业居历年榜首；用LMDI模型分析各行业碳排放影响因素时我们发现，人口规模、经济发展、能耗强度无一例外的增加了各行业的碳排放。用多因素回归分析时发现人口规模、工业发展、能耗强度是三类行业碳排放的共同影响因素。这两者结论相似。
[Abstract]:In the global warming and the increasing depletion of fossil energy environment, the control of greenhouse gas emissions for all mankind is imminent. The effective way to solve the problem in various countries are seeking the previous economic development mode has been unable to meet the needs of economic development in the world. A new green economy low-carbon economy came into being many countries in the world, and has been recognized by Chinese. As a developing country, carbon dioxide emissions continue to increase in the process of industrialization of our country. In the mitigation of carbon emissions, low carbon development mode is still long way to go. In this background, to study the factors that influence our country industry specific industry carbon emissions, the analysis of their impact on the industrial carbon the discharge has certain theoretical significance. Meanwhile the research conclusion will be for the development of our country industry carbon emission reduction policies provide very heavy The reference value and guiding significance.
This paper first introduces the purpose of study on the influencing factors of carbon emissions of China's industrial sector, summarizing the related research literatures, the main contents and methods of the thesis. Secondly, through the review and analysis of the basic theory, expounds the factors affecting carbon emissions of two kinds of commonly used decomposition method: structural decomposition analysis (SDA) and index decomposition analysis method (IDA), and select the LMDI method in IDA as the research methods. After the establishment of the LMDI factors suitable for China's industrial carbon emission field decomposition model to study the influencing factors on carbon emissions, including: population size, industrial development, industry structure, energy intensity and energy structure. Third, estimates the industry 2003-2011 years of carbon emissions, the analysis of the changing trend. According to the size of carbon emissions to classify 39 industries, respectively, analysis the influence factors of each industry. Finally, in order to deep The effects of various factors on carbon emissions in industrial industries are studied effectively. The multiple factor regression analysis is also carried out in this paper.
The research results show that China's industrial sector carbon emissions differences between different industries, among which the black metal smelting and rolling industry in the first place; use the LMDI model to analyze the influencing factors of carbon emissions in the industry when we found that the size of the population, economic development, energy consumption intensity without exception increased in various industries with more carbon emissions. Regression analysis found that the size of the population, industrial development, energy intensity is the common influencing factors of three types of industry carbon emissions. The two results are similar.

【学位授予单位】：哈尔滨工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F424.1

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